January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

He had enough HOF years to qualify.  

The question is, did he use performance enhancing drugs?. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ngl, 6" of sleet would enrage me.

I had like 3-4” of sleet in VD storm 07 and ya it sucked. You don’t wanna be out in it getting pelted and it was and night and little breezy and just sounded like pebbles blasting my window. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I am just trying to understand how it can cut like that? That is a stout banana high. I would think it would try to jump way earlier than that. But again. I dont know anything apparently. 

I agree. The whole solution seems fishy to me. Either the HP is weaker than originally forecast and the storm punches through (makes sense) or the model isn't accounting for it properly. And since it is the only model that seems to be overamping the system like this (outside of the Ukie yesterday) I just can't really worry about it. 

[Solution Man]

Ass whoopin @240 in gfs long range

[LeesburgWx]

GFS buries everyone with 16-20" and this place is falling apart like we have tornado warnings coming

[LP08]

Ukie is pretty sweet.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I had like 3-4” of sleet in VD storm 07 and ya it sucked. You don’t wanna be out in it getting pelted and it was and night and little breezy and just sounded like pebbles blasting my window. 

I rather have sunny and cold with frozen mud then listen to garbage sleet for 24 hours lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

GFS buries everyone with 16-20" and this place is falling apart like we have tornado warnings coming

Mix line is a little too close for comfort.

[clskinsfan]

UKIE is a pummeling

[TSSN+]

Ukmet looks better this run. 

[Bob Chill]

Ukie decidedly un-amped. Gfs/icon camp

 

[Fozz]

23 minutes ago, Pityflakes said:

Seriously how could we fail at this point?  Nine times of of ten we fail because of BL temps/sun angle/rates/DST/lack of moisture.  Here we have mega cold (up to 750mb) and moisture transport galore.  The other times we fail because we're relying on a coastal that just doesn't get its act together in time or is shunted south at the last minute.  No so here we are 6-12 before the coastal really gets going.  

I think the most likely fail is if it over-amps beyond the GGEM and drives the primary even further up. I think it’s unlikely, but that’s the only scenario I can think of now that suppression is practically out of the picture.

If sleet/mixing can be kept at bay (literally lol), I don’t see how this isn’t a regionwide KU.

[bncho]

UKIE south of 0z I think?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I am just trying to understand how it can cut like that? That is a stout banana high. I would think it would try to jump way earlier than that. But again. I dont know anything apparently. 

Not sure it will...but on that particular GGEM run the 50/50 exits a little too quickly allowing more ridging to penetrate further north head of the trough axis, with more phasing to "flip" the whole thermal profile on its axis, pinwheel effect so to speak.  The greenland block is north of perfect, the 50/50 isn't locked in like we see in true suppressive patterns, but there is a crazy EPO ridge and crazy blocking with a 50/50 and an arctic high in place, there is plenty good here...but is it technically possible if we get a full phase like the GGEM for this to over amp a little and the HECS snow ends up NW of us...yes.  But there are plenty of ways for us to win...slightly less phasing, the 50/50 hangs on 12 hours longer, the phasing happens but is centered a little further southeast...there are more win paths than fail ones here, and even the fail path is not a full fail just a failure to maximize potential.  

[LP08]

Just now, LP08 said:

Ukie is pretty sweet.

10-15 on 10-1 with very little sleet before dry slot

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

UKIE is a pummeling

I guess they walked back the mixing?

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

UKIE south of 0z I think?

It's a drubbing for most. I'll lock that in right now. 

[winter_warlock]

From what I'm seeing on here ukie looks great.. GFS was a bomb. If euro looks good I'd just disregard the CMC . 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

UK also drives a primary to Pitt like CMC but a front end shellacking first.  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet looks better this run. 

What did the UKMET show last night?

[baltosquid]

Looks like UK still wants to amp, looked pretty unambiguously better at hr84 but the commonwealth models just want to zoom this thing right into the OHV no matter what. It is definitely better than 00z though. Hopefully both this and the CMC are just amp happy and prove to be in their own little world. Struggle to believe a 1006 low climbing from the MS valley to WV/OH into this high.

 

Edit: just to clarify it was an overall improvement and not a small one, but it feels like the ceiling is still being kept low by this “drive the primary into the arctic high to OH” tendency on the CMC and UKMET

[Cobalt]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

UK also drives a primary to Pitt like CMC but a front end shellacking first.  

0z drove the primary into Buffalo so this is decisive improvement. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

UK also drives a primary to Pitt like CMC but a front end shellacking first.  

Storm ends really before it changes over. Much colder than cmc 

[TSSN+]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

What did the UKMET show last night?

A lot of sleet pushing into us. This run not so much 

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

GFS buries everyone with 16-20" and this place is falling apart like we have tornado warnings coming

We want clean snow... It is the unicorn in our region so we should keep our focus on that... As soon as we get warm air intrusions we get alarmed and it is a terrible concern. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Storm ends really before it changes over. Much colder than cmc 

Yeah it's like a foot plus before mixing issues, so yeah happy to have that as the outcome. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro will be telling here soon 

0z tonight will be telling once all dropsonde data is ingested. All of these runs are general thoughts attm. Tonight we start to really close the goalposts and get a real idea of which of these current model thoughts are correct.

[clskinsfan]

Would probably snizzle for a while after the thump and dry slot. I'll take it.

[jayyy]

Gfs has what? 12-18 and Ukie is easily 6-12”… relax yall

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm having a hard time believing the CMC/UKMET where the primary low just runs into this dome of high pressure with ease.