January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[North Balti Zen]

3 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

It's a fair point but it's not a good trend

I need you to look up the definition of "trend". 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, seems like we're dealing with a whole different animal.  Remember when we were worried about suppression?  

Don’t ever remember worrying about suppression. Worried about if the Baja wave would eject. Was never suppressed or was will we have a wave move out or not. If it did we would get hit if not we didn’t. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s pretty ugly 

It's a 6-12" snowstorm across our area followed by sleet.  What adjective people use to describe that is up to them.  It is pretty close to the worst case scenario given the setup, so to be fair in that way it is a disaster because we would underachieve in a rare big potential setup.  But by most objective standards that kind of storm affecting our whole area would still be very rare, a once every 5 years type event, so calling it a disaster is kinda harsh...but depends by what lens you're viewing it.  

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I'll say it again, it's the CMC. If the Euro shows this then you can get nervous. 

yeah and yesterday we were saying it just the GFS... The CMC has been locked into it solution so we cannot discredit it.

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

I need you to look up the definition of "trend". 

It's a fair point but it's not a good run of the model - this time.

Better?

[caviman2201]

2 minutes ago, T. August said:

In DC it’s workable but anywhere north, the warmth outraces the precip. Still waiting on final maps but I’d say north of Baltimore is 5-6” at 10:1 (which honestly they might be lower ratios).

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That being said, I don't think the CMC is right in driving that strong low into the OHV with an arctic airmass in place like that.

CMC got that low doing this to that arctic high

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, bncho said:

i was right tho 

Just saw this.  Yeah, because the one time you jumped the gun happen to work out.  You weren't right at the time you made the post. 

But I'm not mad at you, I was 12 when I thought I knew everything too.

[TSSN+]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It's a 6-12" snowstorm across our area followed by sleet.  What adjective people use to describe that is up to them.  It is pretty close to the worst case scenario given the setup, so to be fair in that way it is a disaster because we would underachieve in a rare big potential setup.  But by most objective standards that kind of storm affecting our whole area would still be very rare, a once every 5 years type event, so calling it a disaster is kinda harsh...but depends by what lese you're viewing it.  

I’m looking for a big boy. Have had a few 6” events last few years. Have had none over 10”. So ya let’s have gfs or 6z euro be right. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Don’t ever remember worrying about suppression. Worried about if the Baja wave would eject. Was never suppressed or was will we have a wave move out or not. If it did we would get hit if not we didn’t. 

I was sweating it for a bit.   I think we'll know what's what after 0z tonight.   Or have a better idea.  This driving a primary amp'd thing to WV just jumped onto the scene.  I think we'll end up between the GFS and CMC

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GDPS

[T. August]

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

I think I gave a pretty accurate description without seeing the final maps. M/D line around 5-6”

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

yeah and yesterday we were saying it just the GFS... The CMC has been locked into it solution so we cannot discredit it.

Nobody is discrediting it, but i won't be concerned that this is the final outcome until the Euro and Ukie start showing it. Regardless it's still a great storm, just not the 20" some people thought we were getting. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I was sweating it for a bit.   I think we'll know what's what after 0z tonight.   Or have a better idea.  This driving a primary amp'd thing to WV just jumped onto the scene.  I think we'll end up between the GFS and CMC

Euro will be telling here soon 

[Interstate]

If the CMC is right... no one is going anywhere for awhile.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That being said, I don't think the CMC is right in driving that strong low into the OHV with an arctic airmass in place like that.

I know this is anecdotal but might be relevant, at about this range ahead of the 2016 storm, the GGEM was the most amped consistently showing crazy ridiculous snowfall totals further north than the other models.  It has also been over amped a few times over the last few years when I was rooting for a more amped solution in systems where I was getting fringed...and I got fringed so...  

All of that to say, if the GGEM ends up on its own with an over amped solution I would not worry too much...if other guidance ends up going that way...then I would worry some.  

[DDweatherman]

You guys living and dying by one model run at 96 hours is impressive. Even if the Euro looks like the CMC, that doesn't mean thats what's happening. I didn't know the outcome is determined by a couple runs 4 days out. Sure there are some amped runs in there as a trend, but let's look at the synoptics and also we've seen a lot of systems de-amp in the mid range. 

[stormtracker]

Is there parallel super secret CMC any better?  If it is, post it.  If not, it sucks.  

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, jwLwx said:

One run, from one model, is suddenly a trend? 

The CMC was deadly accurate on our last fail. I'd definitely give it credit. This is starting to look like a classic 90's thump to junk storm. This is why I cringe when I hear "non complicated overrunning" lol. 

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I was sweating it for a bit.   I think we'll know what's what after 0z tonight.   Or have a better idea.  This driving a primary amp'd thing to WV just jumped onto the scene.  I think we'll end up between the GFS and CMC

I could come around to 6" of sleet if I had to in a true "worst case scenario" that hasn't even been modeled yet. Would be annoying to get baited by a MECS and shift into that, but 6" of sleet would be a BECS in its own way.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

If the CMC is right... no one is going anywhere for awhile.

Honestly 8" of snow, 1" of sleet and a quarter inch of ice is pretty HAWT, i would definitely take that as a worse case scenario. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I generally do not think of the GFS nor the CMC as models that lead the way with trends.  I think they are giving us the outer range of outcomes and it I think it fits rather neatly that Euro is between the two.  

GEFS didn't make any big moves with its depiction of the 850 warmth from 6z to 12z as far as I can tell. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I could come around to 6" of sleet if I had to in a true "worst case scenario" that hasn't even been modeled yet. Would be annoying to get baited by a MECS and shift into that, but 6" of sleet would be a BECS in its own way.

ngl, 6" of sleet would enrage me.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Is there parallel super secret CMC any better?  If it is, post it.  If not, it sucks.  

It runs delayed, but it was all snow for DC-north yesterday. Sleet creeping nearby

[blizzardmeiser]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But unfortunately on that particular pbp he was a Hall of Shamer 

He had enough HOF years to qualify.  

[SnowGolfBro]

In a meeting at work. Boss opens with “be prepared for next week it’s going to be a bad storm, i follow Jay’s Wintery Mix on Facebook and he is never wrong”.  I almost fell out of my chair lol

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a 6-12" snowstorm across our area followed by sleet.  What adjective people use to describe that is up to them.  It is pretty close to the worst case scenario given the setup, so to be fair in that way it is a disaster because we would underachieve in a rare big potential setup.  But by most objective standards that kind of storm affecting our whole area would still be very rare, a once every 5 years type event, so calling it a disaster is kinda harsh...but depends by what lens you're viewing it.  

I am just trying to understand how it can cut like that? That is a stout banana high. I would think it would try to jump way earlier than that. But again. I dont know anything apparently. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, T. August said:

In DC it’s workable but anywhere north, the warmth outraces the precip. Still waiting on final maps but I’d say north of Baltimore is 5-6” at 10:1 (which honestly they might be lower ratios).

ratios will be slightly higher NW of 95, and that zone that gets a little less snow also gets more sleet after the flip, in the end it evens out...everyone ends up with like 8-10" OTG probably...area's NW do it with more sleet, along 95 with a quick heavy snow thump before a flip and more dryslot.  

[Solution Man]

GFS for the win @ 234 in Long range

[LP08]

Alright, ill try again this time.  Ukie less amped than that crazy zonked 0z run.