January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[TSSN+]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Both 6Z EPS and AI ensembles trended slightly warmer for Sunday at the 850 temp level. 

Not unexpected 

[Weather Will]

Looking at individual WB 6Z GEFS members, lot of area wide hits.

[jlewis1111]

Ive always been taught to not even look at the 6z and 18z models due to its stale data. 12z models today will be huge for everyone. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What did 6z ukie do?

Only goes out to 66hrs

[BristowWx]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Looking at individual WB 6Z GEFS members, lot of area wide hits.

not just hits but southern solution hits more prevalent than northern.  We'll be fine.  All of us.  Fine.  

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What did 6z ukie do?

0z Ukie ensembles looked great.

[BlizzardNole]

19 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I mean that's borderline dangerous for the southern crew

St. Mary's county would have 8-10" snow followed by well over an inch of freezing rain.  That would be real bad

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not unexpected 

But it looks like 6Z euro op trended ever so slightly colder at the 850 level, basically noise. 

[stormtracker]

So 6z Euro has more QPF, better snow maps and is a touch colder and reading through here you would think it got....worse?

[Scraff]

Good morning weenies! Well that was some fun reading from the overnight crew. Eventually, I just had to hit the arrow button and skip several pages to land back in the world of sanity. Anyway, today is definitely an important one. The “windshield wiper effect” is real. Happens in all the big storms. That said, I’ll just watch the Weather Channel all day, tv sound off, but Iron Maiden or Judas Priest turned to 11!! It’s already working. Check this out!!

[clskinsfan]

We haven't had a storm like this in a decade. And people are flipping out about some taint on top of over a foot of snow? Which is then followed by sub freezing temps for 2 weeks. I honestly don't get it. The synoptic setup alone has me weenieing out man. We are going to get absolutely mauled during the daylight hours on Sunday While watching the NFL Championship games. Absolute perfection for me. 

[SnoSki14]

Does anyone have 6z Euro/Euro AI or EPS  snow maps 

[mitchnick]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Does anyone have 6z Euro snow maps 

 

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

We haven't had a storm like this in a decade. And people are flipping out about some taint on top of over a foot of snow? Which is then followed by sub freezing temps for 2 weeks. I honestly don't get it. The synoptic setup alone has me weenieing out man. We are going to get absolutely mauled during the daylight hours on Sunday While watching the NFL Championship games. Absolute perfection for me. 

Well, I think what people in most of this forum are worried about is continued north trend. And the Euro is already up to an inch of ice for the southern third of this forum (not QPF, but estimated accretion)

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Good morning weenies! Well that was some fun reading from the overnight crew. Eventually, I just had to hit the arrow button and skip several pages to land back in the world of sanity. Anyway, today is definitely an important one. The “windshield wiper effect” is real. Happens in all the big storms. That said, I’ll just watch the Weather Channel all day, tv sound off, but Iron Maiden or Judas Priest turned to 11!! It’s already working. Check this out!!

They are idiots for showing that on air. 

[yoda]

Morning discussion from LWX... note the bold and underlined...

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Confidence of a significant winter storm across
the region remains high Saturday into Sunday, but confidence in
exact amounts of snow versus ice is lower especially south and
east.

Ingredients are coming together to produce a significant winter
storm across the region this weekend. Based on the latest
guidance, wintry precipitation (snow) may arrive as early as
Saturday morning for west-central VA before spreading east and
northeast slowly through the day. Snow then continues Saturday
night into Sunday morning, then could mix with sleet and
freezing rain for some areas Sunday into Sunday night. While
deterministic guidance continue to show some run-to-run
variability, the overall trend has been bringing the higher
QPF amounts toward central Virginia, with a potential for mix
wintry precipitation Sunday afternoon and night. In a multi-
day sense, global ensemble probabilities remain very high for
seeing 6+ inches of snow. This comes with the presumed snow-
to-liquid ratio of 10:1 which this system will not be given the
Arctic nature of the air mass. Ratios could be considerably
higher yielding a fluffier snow. With the parent features still
across the more barren high latitudes, models may take another
day or two to resolve such features with better precision (note:
recon flights are expected to take place near the Southwest
CONUS later today - that`s where models have been most sensitive
to changes, so hopefully this additional data will help hone in
on details). The details will be important in determining any
precipitation type transitions. However, given the very cold air
locked in at and near the surface with strong Arctic high
pressure anchored firmly to our north, plain rain is highly
unlikely anywhere in the region. It will therefore come down to
snow versus ice, both of which could be significant and highly
impactful across a widespread area.

On the synoptic pattern side of things, many ingredients are in
place to produce the mentioned winter storm. On Saturday, Arctic
high pressure (1045-1050 mb) across the Midwest eventually
reaches New England by the evening as a still robust 1040 mb
anticyclone. This yields the familiar cold air damming wedge
setup which stretches down into the southeastern U.S.

Looking aloft, a split jet structure is evident with deep cyclonic
flow in the northern stream and a progressive feature ejecting out
of the Four Corners (this is the feature that introduces the
most uncertainty/model variability). The downstream confluent
flow will aid in ample forcing in the form of overrunning across
vast portions of the central/eastern U.S. While the main
surface low sweeps across the Gulf Coast states, a broad area of
isentropically driven precipitation spreads over the frigid air
mass to the north. Based on the latest guidance and trends,
precipitation type issues could arise Sunday/Sunday night. An
energy transfer eventually unfolds Sunday afternoon/evening
which focuses to deepening low pressure off the Outer Banks
of NC. Eventually, this features pulls away from the coast late
Sunday night which gradually brings the brunt of the
precipitation to an end, though some light precipitation
(perhaps freezing drizzle east/upslope snow showers west) could
linger into Monday morning.

With the system not arriving until Saturday evening sometime, now is
the time to prepare for this winter storm. Check back at the office
website (weather.gov/lwx) as well as the winter page as the system
moves into the Day 1-3 period (weather.gov/lwx/winter).

 

[baltosquid]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Only goes out to 66hrs

Looked like it would not phase so aggressively at that point though

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

We haven't had a storm like this in a decade. And people are flipping out about some taint on top of over a foot of snow? Which is then followed by sub freezing temps for 2 weeks. I honestly don't get it. The synoptic setup alone has me weenieing out man. We are going to get absolutely mauled during the daylight hours on Sunday While watching the NFL Championship games. Absolute perfection for me. 

I think the worry isn't about the maps or sleet. Us lowlanders are worried the trend continues north. Anything to stop it?

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Good morning weenies! Well that was some fun reading from the overnight crew. Eventually, I just had to hit the arrow button and skip several pages to land back in the world of sanity. Anyway, today is definitely an important one. The “windshield wiper effect” is real. Happens in all the big storms. That said, I’ll just watch the Weather Channel all day, tv sound off, but Iron Maiden or Judas Priest turned to 11!! It’s already working. Check this out!!

J

[mitchnick]

Eps

[Miss Pixee]

54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good morning weenies. 
 

People have been mentioning Feb 2014 at times for this storm. I don’t remember the synoptic setup, but I remember that beatdown of a WAA thump. Maybe this is a colder version? 
 

12” EPS mean is bonkers. 
 

Hitting NAM/RGEM range for storm start time with the 12z suite!

Do overrunning systems normally toggle north and south? If say the overall shield is wide enough would these shifts not matter as much?

[mappy]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A trade we’re making with this stronger phasing is more precip for a mix risk. And potentially that’s a trade that could get us more snow in total. Going to see some ridiculous QPF predictions from the mesos by tomorrow.

Technically 99% isn’t a lock?

It is pretty typical to mix at some point in an amped system. I mean if I get a foot plus and then sleet, I’m not gonna complain. It could, you know, not snow at all lol

[Ji]

21.1" huh...acceptable 

My wife refused to move there cause no Costco despite 350000 house price difference

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I think the worry isn't about the maps or sleet. Us lowlanders are worried the trend continues north. Anything to stop it?

It can only cut so much into that hp. I don't care how bombed out it is. I still think it would try try to jump from TN or KY before getting to wv. But I'm not a met either. Regardless the thump being depicted is historic alone. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

My wife refused to move there cause no Costco despite 350000 house price difference

Sell the house, pocket the tax free profits, and don't look back. That's what I did. You can always by online from Costco and make a visit to the closest Costco a pleasure drive.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

It is pretty typical to mix at some point in an amped system. I mean if I get a foot plus and then sleet, I’m not gonna complain. It could, you know, not snow at all lol

Ya I’ll take 12”+ and mix a little, better than 6” a no mix. 

[TSSN+]

The winter storm watch march ene continues. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS

 

 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya I’ll take 12”+ and mix a little, better than 6” a no mix. 

It’s not an atypical setup. People should know how these go for their backyards. Expect heavy snow, then sleet, probably a dry slot, then ULL love. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS

Still shows the majority of solutions with the max across our south of us. Overamped scenarios are still in the minority.