TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Both 6Z EPS and AI ensembles trended slightly warmer for Sunday at the 850 temp level. Not unexpected 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Looking at individual WB 6Z GEFS members, lot of area wide hits. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ive always been taught to not even look at the 6z and 18z models due to its stale data. 12z models today will be huge for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What did 6z ukie do? Only goes out to 66hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Weather Will said: Looking at individual WB 6Z GEFS members, lot of area wide hits. not just hits but southern solution hits more prevalent than northern. We'll be fine. All of us. Fine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What did 6z ukie do? 0z Ukie ensembles looked great. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 19 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: I mean that's borderline dangerous for the southern crew St. Mary's county would have 8-10" snow followed by well over an inch of freezing rain. That would be real bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Not unexpected But it looks like 6Z euro op trended ever so slightly colder at the 850 level, basically noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 So 6z Euro has more QPF, better snow maps and is a touch colder and reading through here you would think it got....worse? 4 1 8 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Good morning weenies! Well that was some fun reading from the overnight crew. Eventually, I just had to hit the arrow button and skip several pages to land back in the world of sanity. Anyway, today is definitely an important one. The “windshield wiper effect” is real. Happens in all the big storms. That said, I’ll just watch the Weather Channel all day, tv sound off, but Iron Maiden or Judas Priest turned to 11!! It’s already working. Check this out!! 4 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 We haven't had a storm like this in a decade. And people are flipping out about some taint on top of over a foot of snow? Which is then followed by sub freezing temps for 2 weeks. I honestly don't get it. The synoptic setup alone has me weenieing out man. We are going to get absolutely mauled during the daylight hours on Sunday While watching the NFL Championship games. Absolute perfection for me. 14 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Does anyone have 6z Euro/Euro AI or EPS snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Does anyone have 6z Euro snow maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: We haven't had a storm like this in a decade. And people are flipping out about some taint on top of over a foot of snow? Which is then followed by sub freezing temps for 2 weeks. I honestly don't get it. The synoptic setup alone has me weenieing out man. We are going to get absolutely mauled during the daylight hours on Sunday While watching the NFL Championship games. Absolute perfection for me. Well, I think what people in most of this forum are worried about is continued north trend. And the Euro is already up to an inch of ice for the southern third of this forum (not QPF, but estimated accretion) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good morning weenies! Well that was some fun reading from the overnight crew. Eventually, I just had to hit the arrow button and skip several pages to land back in the world of sanity. Anyway, today is definitely an important one. The “windshield wiper effect” is real. Happens in all the big storms. That said, I’ll just watch the Weather Channel all day, tv sound off, but Iron Maiden or Judas Priest turned to 11!! It’s already working. Check this out!! They are idiots for showing that on air. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Morning discussion from LWX... note the bold and underlined... DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Confidence of a significant winter storm across the region remains high Saturday into Sunday, but confidence in exact amounts of snow versus ice is lower especially south and east. Ingredients are coming together to produce a significant winter storm across the region this weekend. Based on the latest guidance, wintry precipitation (snow) may arrive as early as Saturday morning for west-central VA before spreading east and northeast slowly through the day. Snow then continues Saturday night into Sunday morning, then could mix with sleet and freezing rain for some areas Sunday into Sunday night. While deterministic guidance continue to show some run-to-run variability, the overall trend has been bringing the higher QPF amounts toward central Virginia, with a potential for mix wintry precipitation Sunday afternoon and night. In a multi- day sense, global ensemble probabilities remain very high for seeing 6+ inches of snow. This comes with the presumed snow- to-liquid ratio of 10:1 which this system will not be given the Arctic nature of the air mass. Ratios could be considerably higher yielding a fluffier snow. With the parent features still across the more barren high latitudes, models may take another day or two to resolve such features with better precision (note: recon flights are expected to take place near the Southwest CONUS later today - that`s where models have been most sensitive to changes, so hopefully this additional data will help hone in on details). The details will be important in determining any precipitation type transitions. However, given the very cold air locked in at and near the surface with strong Arctic high pressure anchored firmly to our north, plain rain is highly unlikely anywhere in the region. It will therefore come down to snow versus ice, both of which could be significant and highly impactful across a widespread area. On the synoptic pattern side of things, many ingredients are in place to produce the mentioned winter storm. On Saturday, Arctic high pressure (1045-1050 mb) across the Midwest eventually reaches New England by the evening as a still robust 1040 mb anticyclone. This yields the familiar cold air damming wedge setup which stretches down into the southeastern U.S. Looking aloft, a split jet structure is evident with deep cyclonic flow in the northern stream and a progressive feature ejecting out of the Four Corners (this is the feature that introduces the most uncertainty/model variability). The downstream confluent flow will aid in ample forcing in the form of overrunning across vast portions of the central/eastern U.S. While the main surface low sweeps across the Gulf Coast states, a broad area of isentropically driven precipitation spreads over the frigid air mass to the north. Based on the latest guidance and trends, precipitation type issues could arise Sunday/Sunday night. An energy transfer eventually unfolds Sunday afternoon/evening which focuses to deepening low pressure off the Outer Banks of NC. Eventually, this features pulls away from the coast late Sunday night which gradually brings the brunt of the precipitation to an end, though some light precipitation (perhaps freezing drizzle east/upslope snow showers west) could linger into Monday morning. With the system not arriving until Saturday evening sometime, now is the time to prepare for this winter storm. Check back at the office website (weather.gov/lwx) as well as the winter page as the system moves into the Day 1-3 period (weather.gov/lwx/winter). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Only goes out to 66hrs Looked like it would not phase so aggressively at that point though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We haven't had a storm like this in a decade. And people are flipping out about some taint on top of over a foot of snow? Which is then followed by sub freezing temps for 2 weeks. I honestly don't get it. The synoptic setup alone has me weenieing out man. We are going to get absolutely mauled during the daylight hours on Sunday While watching the NFL Championship games. Absolute perfection for me. I think the worry isn't about the maps or sleet. Us lowlanders are worried the trend continues north. Anything to stop it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good morning weenies! Well that was some fun reading from the overnight crew. Eventually, I just had to hit the arrow button and skip several pages to land back in the world of sanity. Anyway, today is definitely an important one. The “windshield wiper effect” is real. Happens in all the big storms. That said, I’ll just watch the Weather Channel all day, tv sound off, but Iron Maiden or Judas Priest turned to 11!! It’s already working. Check this out!! J 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Eps 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Good morning weenies. People have been mentioning Feb 2014 at times for this storm. I don’t remember the synoptic setup, but I remember that beatdown of a WAA thump. Maybe this is a colder version? 12” EPS mean is bonkers. Hitting NAM/RGEM range for storm start time with the 12z suite! Do overrunning systems normally toggle north and south? If say the overall shield is wide enough would these shifts not matter as much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: A trade we’re making with this stronger phasing is more precip for a mix risk. And potentially that’s a trade that could get us more snow in total. Going to see some ridiculous QPF predictions from the mesos by tomorrow. Technically 99% isn’t a lock? It is pretty typical to mix at some point in an amped system. I mean if I get a foot plus and then sleet, I’m not gonna complain. It could, you know, not snow at all lol 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 21.1" huh...acceptable My wife refused to move there cause no Costco despite 350000 house price difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I think the worry isn't about the maps or sleet. Us lowlanders are worried the trend continues north. Anything to stop it? It can only cut so much into that hp. I don't care how bombed out it is. I still think it would try try to jump from TN or KY before getting to wv. But I'm not a met either. Regardless the thump being depicted is historic alone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Ji said: My wife refused to move there cause no Costco despite 350000 house price difference Sell the house, pocket the tax free profits, and don't look back. That's what I did. You can always by online from Costco and make a visit to the closest Costco a pleasure drive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, mappy said: It is pretty typical to mix at some point in an amped system. I mean if I get a foot plus and then sleet, I’m not gonna complain. It could, you know, not snow at all lol Ya I’ll take 12”+ and mix a little, better than 6” a no mix. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The winter storm watch march ene continues. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 6Z EPS 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya I’ll take 12”+ and mix a little, better than 6” a no mix. It’s not an atypical setup. People should know how these go for their backyards. Expect heavy snow, then sleet, probably a dry slot, then ULL love. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS Still shows the majority of solutions with the max across our south of us. Overamped scenarios are still in the minority. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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