January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, nj2va said:

Looks like DC flips to sleet Sunday late morning/early afternoon with a warm nose at 700. But my goodness, what a thump before that. 1.2” or so of QPF in DC before that.

Earlier start time?

[stormtracker]

I'm still trying to figure how much SNOW before the flip

[mitchnick]

Incredible how fast these things can change.

[Amped]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Looks like DC flips to sleet Sunday late morning/early afternoon with a warm nose at 700. But my goodness, what a thump before that. 1.2” or so of QPF in DC before that.

More precip than the 12z euro even had.

[baltosquid]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So, now we see what @H2O was worried about.   

So let's get it in our heads now that this is where we're at and get acquainted and adjust.  We gonna get our usual buffet if this locks in.  But the good thing is...we got time

The bad thing is, believe it or not, is also we got time.

But the storms that performed well for the southern part of the subforum this winter seemed to always flash a north trend before ultimately settling in south again. At least that's what I'll take with me to bed...

[Solution Man]

Anybody have the front end dump map

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

We will be fine, don’t sweat it. 

I'm kidding.  I'm not going to get invested in this until Thursday evening when I'm having drinks with @NorthArlington101 and @nj2va.  

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm still trying to figure how much SNOW before the flip

Might as well wait for Kuchera maps in light of upper level temps.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

It may mix, but will get wrecked before that 

Yeah...I mean, i'm going to adjust and hope we can get as much snow qpf as possible before the flip and accept a good bit could be lost to sleet.

[Amped]

Reminder, the pdii and the blizzard of 96 mixed with sleet along i95.

[Ralph Wiggum]

All season thus far we couldnt buy a phase. Now we get a record arctic hp and antecedent airmass and the ns decides to do a perfect clean phase and overamp. So hard to get a clean MECS. It really is. But we have time. Hang in gang.

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Might as well wait for Kuchera maps in light of upper level temps.

Yeah..it's just an absolute QPF bomb.  Crazy that one panel

[pazzo83]

we really haven't had this type of precip since like July lol

[baltosquid]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

All season thus far we couldnt buy a can phase. Now we get a record arctic hp and antecedent airmass and the ns decides to do a perfect clean phase and overamp. So hard to get a clean MECS. It really is. But we have time. Hang in gang.

Yup, like I was saying earlier, still think it's more likely the NS gets trashy somewhere along the line and can't cleanly phase... but we do know how to lose here. So we'll see.

[nj2va]

RIC is over 2” of QPF storm total. DC 1.5”

[EHoffman]

Just now, Amped said:

Reminder, the pdii and the blizzard of 96 mixed with sleet along i95.

It's pretty much a fact of life that we get a period of sleet/lull/both with a bombing coastal on these HECS.  It's just the price of doing business in the DMV along 95.

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Might as well wait for Kuchera maps in light of upper level temps.

It would be huge for us. Almost 1.4 qpf. by 18z. No mixing issues here til after that.

[Weather Will]

We may end up with the best of both worlds: more snow overrunning with the boundary setting up further north and with the low moving further north heavier QPF from the low. As an added bonus, a more amped solution lessens the threat of an ice storm in the Deep South.

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

RIC is over 2” of QPF storm total. DC 1.5”

I’ll take a QPF bomb even if that comes with a changeover to sleet.

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah..it's just an absolute QPF bomb.  Crazy that one panel

Meh, looks like at most a few tenths more than some of the other models. It’s not like it’s 2 plus inches. Trading a mix for a couple tenths of precip and lower ratio seems like a poor trade, but I am sure more adjustments are to come.

[jayyy]

It would be huge for us. Almost 1.4 qpf. by 18z. No mixing issues here til after that.

Yeah pretty sure it’s gonna show 12-15

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

It would be huge for us. Almost 1.4 qpf. by 18z. No mixing issues here til after that.

Very pd2-ish, at least up my way in se pa

[caviman2201]

Just wild to think we mix with a 1040+ banana HP over the lakes lol

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

It would be huge for us. Almost 1.4 qpf. by 18z. No mixing issues here til after that.

Ok doing quick math 18+ area wide?

[wxmeddler]

Hell'uva phase. No longer a sliding over-runner.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

All season thus far we couldnt buy a can phase. Now we get a record arctic hp and antecedent airmass and the ns decides to do a perfect clean phase and overamp. So hard to get a clean MECS. It really is. But we have time. Hang in gang.

Yeah and again...as long as it doesn't go any MORE amped than this, we can still get something really good despite the sleet. And I think we'll know by this time tomorrow. If we can't get at least 8" out of this that's just plain ol' bad luck and just wasn't meant to be.

[nj2va]

Kuchie is over a foot in DC before the changeover.  More N/W.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

It would be huge for us. Almost 1.4 qpf. by 18z. No mixing issues here til after that.

Maybe not this run, but it's the runs after this one I fear.

[ravensrule]

Just now, nj2va said:

Kuchie is over a foot in DC before the changeover.  More N/W.

Post maps please. 

[Ji]

Just now, nj2va said:

Kuchie is over a foot in DC before the changeover.  More N/W.

it has like 25 in winchester?