January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nah, I'm with @H2O  Let's just stop the amped here and all be happy with a foot.  Nobody wants to be sweating a mix line.   

after seeing all the improvements....would 6 inches be a disaster for you?

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, bringmesnow1 said:

That'd be 6"+ of qpf.  

Roland Emmerich says it's possible. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

lol take the fight about hypothetical mixing on future runs to banter if it’s not actual analysis.  Euro is perfect. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

We're looking down the barrel of 1-2ft of snow and below freezing temps for a solid week afterwards.  Anybody who says DC can't do winter anymore is smoking crack. 

I wouldn’t get excited until it’s 12z Thursday and there’s zero or very minute changes.

[bncho]

DC to BALT is going to get absolutely clobbered from this storm. RIC likely will as well, but are at risk for mixing. NYC to BOS has seen better trends, and though they might not get clobbered like we will, there's still the possibility they get 12".

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I’ll sweat it, i basically haven’t gotten jack shit since Jan 25 2016. It’s been a long wait, unlike you guys down South who have gotten plenty. I want the big dog aka 16-24”. 

Same. If you mix some will still get high snow totals cause your in higher qpf. Some of our biggest storms have mixed for a few hours. 

[Weather Will]

Only a few ensembles show heaviest accumulations north of our area at 18Z.  There is some buffer room if a more amped solution occurs, but then the exact track will really matter. (WB 18Z EPS). 

[IronTy]

Just now, bncho said:

Y'all. I've genuinely dreamed about using a yardstick to measure snow. It might be my time! DoorDash for the win!

Are those tracks on your carpet from you rolling your snowblower inside to change the belts?

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

after seeing all the improvements....would 6 inches be a disaster for you?

well, we've entered the hype chamber, so...disaster, nah...a little let down..sure.   But I sure wouldn't bitch about it

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Only a few ensembles show heaviest accumulations north of our area at 18Z.  There is buffer room.   (WB 18Z EPS).

There’s actually a decent amount of super amped members. 

[NorthArlington101]

SouthernWX breaking down is the funniest thing ever. They're getting reversed Feb 20 2025'd! 

I’m not dancing on graves 100 hours out. Bad juju. Along with that yardstick.

[Fozz]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Y'all. I've genuinely dreamed about using a yardstick to measure snow. It might be my time! DoorDash for the win!

I remember running to Home Depot in December 2009 to buy a yardstick, the night of the storm. In fact I think the first flakes started falling when I got back home.

Measured 19” a night later.

Enjoy!

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

apply your own ratios 

I'll pick 25 to 1 please.

[WEATHER53]

19 minutes ago, bncho said:

The EPS's "fail" scenario is literally 4-6" for the area, probably up to 7-10" with ratios.

What’s the  high end 10th percentile 

[T. August]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

There’s actually a decent amount of super amped members. 

Not crazy about that. Hopefully we don’t go north too early on this one.

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Only a few ensembles show heaviest accumulations north of our area at 18Z.  There is some buffer room if a more amped solution occurs, but then the exact track will really matter.WB 18Z EPS). 

A lot more members jack our area now than at 12Z. Really good sign. 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Only a few ensembles show heaviest accumulations north of our area at 18Z.  There is buffer room.   

Lots of wide solutions for NC in that mix.  Imagine being in that knife edge. 

[Nomz]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Only a few ensembles show heaviest accumulations north of our area at 18Z.  There is some buffer room if a more amped solution occurs, but then the exact track will really matter.WB 18Z EPS). 

I’ll take a 43 with a side of 23, please

[WEATHER53]

21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nah, I'm with @H2O  Let's just stop the amped here and all be happy with a foot.  Nobody wants to be sweating a mix line.   

We don’t need no stinkin northern influence badges  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Not crazy about that. Hopefully we don’t go north too early on this one.

There are very few amped solutions that really skunk dc, maybe like 4 in there? But even those have the 6 inch line running basically through dc. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

There are very few amped solutions that really skunk dc, maybe like 4 in there? But even those have the 6 inch line running basically through dc. 

Yes.  Of course, it’s 3 days until lock in. So…

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

What’s the  high end 10th percentile 

 

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Disc said:

1996 I believe. 30 something inches over 2 days.

33.2 over 3 days, I had 34.2 over 3 days. 

[WEATHER53]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

 

Thanks 

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Got to smell the sleet to get the goods

100%, I road that line last year back in February. 15.9" here of HUGE fatties while 20 miles to my south was a pingfest with 5". 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes.  Of course, it’s 3 days until lock in. So…

Yeah I’m just saying there’s like 30+ members with really good solutions at this time I’m not sweating the 4 too amped and 4 suppressed or whatever it is.  Especially not when pretty much every model supports the EPS. 

[WxUSAF]

Only 3 complete whiffs and 1 scraper on 18 EPS per @Weather Will’s maps? As I recall @NorthArlington101said it was like 7 and 2 for 12z?

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro now trying to throw some Pacific moisture into the storm. This is likely why the snow totals are going up. Big moisture feed overrunning a dome of very cold air. Tons of lift, moisture, and cold air.

 

 

[mitchnick]

Latest Srefs at 84hrs

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Srefs at 84hrs

6hr precip maps to go with this.