87storms Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It’s worse than the Euro for sure. It’s like a cross between Euro and Icon. The N/S absolutely destroys any chance that run. The 500mb pattern is night and day from the last two runs. The 5H vort panels say it all. We might need to fund a vacuum in the Plains to start pulling NS vorts further south and west...maybe we'll at least get some clippers out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: As for the AIGFS, look what's shown up over the Dakotas this run that nothing at 12z and didn't exist at 6z. Our little friend again. It's not "new" per se; it's just faster on both the GFS and AIGFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Geez Randy, you had to go and make a thread imma kill you 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 To me, the GFS this run actually looks a little better than 12Z. Why are people saying it's "worse"? There was almost literally nothing getting up to DC and north at 12Z, now it looks like 2-4", maybe 3-5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 After the big mood letdown, I went and checked which models have been performing best at 500mb at 96-120 hours. AIFS ensembles and AIFS op hold the top 2, with EPS being a close third. Op euro in the middle of the pack, as is gefs. Op gfs at the bottom-middle, same with op cmc. AI GFS no idea - hasn’t been scored yet 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Put it this way…there are weenies in North Carolina who are putting all their hopes on the gfs right now 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, high risk said: It's not "new" per se; it's just faster on both the GFS and AIGFS. And that's the problem. It shows up way to soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: After the big mood letdown, I went and checked which models have been performing best at 500mb at 96-120 hours. AIFS ensembles and AIFS op hold the top 2, with EPS being a close third. Op euro in the middle of the pack, as is gefs. Op gfs at the bottom-middle, same with op cmc. AI GFS no idea - hasn’t been scored yet Cliff jumping will halt with this post. The GFS(both types) having low scores or none just means they have to be weighted less. If the 500lvl changes are that big as was mentioned then trusting the GFS right now isn’t smart 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Anyone interested in maps from 18z GGEM, you can get them at the link below. Just be prepared to go back in time when you look at them. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Put it this way…there are weenies in North Carolina who are putting all their hopes on the gfs right now True 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Anyone interested in maps from 18z GGEM, you can get them at the link below. Just be prepared to go back in time when you look at them. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps Jeez, I have no idea where to go on that website. Just show us the money panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Wasn’t the GFS predicting a crippling blizzard for this past weekend 100 hrs out? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, bncho said: Jeez, I have no idea where to go on that website. Just show us the money panels. You should try and figure it out 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Put it this way…there are weenies in North Carolina who are putting all their hopes on the gfs right now Which leads to the inevitable question Stormtracker continues to ponder...Do you feel lucky punk? Well do ya'? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Wasn’t the GFS predicting a crippling blizzard for this past weekend 100 hrs out? More often than not the GFS doesn’t lead the way with trends. Hopefully it’s not this time! If this trends to a dud for us with the gfs leading the way I’m gonna be very on tilt for rest of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I really dont get the angst over the 18Z GFS. It looks great at this lead time. It's gonna snow ya'll. And not everyone gets the bullseye. Thats the way the game goes. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Gefs is way south but honestly idc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 GFS was a definite trend in right direction 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I really dont get the angst over the 18Z GFS. It looks great at this lead time. It's gonna snow ya'll. And not everyone gets the bullseye. Thats the way the game goes. I think it's because it was coupled with it's AI counterpart also going way south, lol Edit: And now the gefs too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, TSSN+ said: Gefs is way south but honestly idc. That kicker in the Dakotas is the problem on the Gfs suite this run. Will it start showing up on other guidance is the question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 14 minutes ago, H2O said: Cliff jumping will halt with this post. The GFS(both types) having low scores or none just means they have to be weighted less. If the 500lvl changes are that big as was mentioned then trusting the GFS right now isn’t smart 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I really dont get the angst over the 18Z GFS. It looks great at this lead time. It's gonna snow ya'll. And not everyone gets the bullseye. Thats the way the game goes. You new here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The way the gfs is now shouldn’t alarm anyone. It showed an 80 inch snowstorm in Pa last week. Let it play out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Gefs is way south but honestly idc.You should care. Especially if euro follows suit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 14 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: To me, the GFS this run actually looks a little better than 12Z. Why are people saying it's "worse"? There was almost literally nothing getting up to DC and north at 12Z, now it looks like 2-4", maybe 3-5"? Not sure the reason for doom or gloom. If I had just been looking at the model and not reading in here, toggled back and forth to previous runs, this looked great. Definitely moved in the right direction for snow vs none in previous runs. Maybe I’m missing something? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: More often than not the GFS doesn’t lead the way with trends. Hopefully it’s not this time! If this trends to a dud for us with the gfs leading the way I’m gonna be very on tilt for rest of winter. I’ll be on total tilt as well since it’s had 2 MECS within 100 hrs for the area and been wrong so hopefully it’s just as wrong on this one as well. Having it finally score a coup on this potential storm would be so tilting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Subtle differences in the interaction between the pieces of h5 vorticity make a pretty significant difference at the surface downsteam- one such difference occurs here with a lack of phasing between the NW energy dropping southward and the Baja vortex. Compare to 12z- some phasing occurs and vorticity from the SW energy ejects eastward contributing to more amplification and sooner. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: You new here? Caveat: it was just for 30 min until the AI CRAS comes out. Then more jumping. temp down to 34°. Should stick once precip starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Here's the thing, nobody should put much weight in the GFS now, but I don't care how much I'm ridiculed, I'd like to see it on board if I'm being honest. People have gotta stop being binary. Me saying I wanna see it onboard doesn't mean I'm in angst over what it shows now. For me, it's just a caution and prevents me from being overly confident/hyped. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The official die roll for this event is 11 50/50 chance And yeah, I'd toss any solution that gives New Bern, NC 20 inches of snow until it becomes a repeat thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Here's the thing, nobody should put much weight in the GFS now, but I don't care how much I'm ridiculed, I'd like to see it on board if I'm being honest. People have gotta stop being binary. Me saying I wanna see it onboard doesn't mean I'm in angst over what it shows now. For me, it's just a caution and prevents me from being overly confident/hyped. The GFS is an important weather model. It isn’t always totally wrong. It isn’t always right. It shows one of many possibilities that have to be considered. If its wheelhouse is closer to 4 days then tomorrow it can cave or drag others towards it. Or the models meet in. The middle and gives a decent snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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