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Ice Ice Baby December 28-29 Storm Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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tamarack
tamarack

Hoping for more IP, less ZR.  Impressive diurnal range today, 30/-11.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I also don’t think the accretion will be overly efficient in this type of setup. When the cold layer is so shallow like this, the liquid drops are not as supercooled so they won’t freeze as quickly on

dendrite
dendrite

And to Tip’s point…. A short period of +RA with marginal <32° temps and no evaporative cooling offset isn’t going to result in significant accretion. A lot of that liquid will run off and “was

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My town uses the liquid brine stuff on the main roads, but then the greenish colored salt mix on our side roads.     They will probably be plowing during the rain anyway, digging up our wrecked road

Same here on the brine, They usually pre treat a day or two before an event.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
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Nuisance to moderately severe urban ponding is very likely to develop by mid-day Monday as temperatures rapidly rise into low 50s with this expected rain, in particular s CT could see near total melt of existing snow pack but any large snowbanks created by plow operations will survive (partially) and acr as dams for rapidly accumulating meltwater. Some drains will be blocked which will prolong the nuisance. This will be followed by a rapid freeze Monday night and any slushy cover will become solid icy glop. Despite differences in lat-long we have had this same cycle here about three days ahead, first the 4-8 inch snow cover, then the rain and the flash freeze. We lost most of our snow pack even with a peak temp of 40 F in the rainfall. It then fell to 15 F and everything has frozen solid, our partial snow cover looks like snow but is frozen solid, any slush not removed from parking lots or driveways is now a solid frozen mess. Obviously further north into n CT and w/c MA there will be less total snowmelt but there will probably be some urban ponding anyway and a similar cycle will develop without full removal of snow on ground. 

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VivaManchVegas

VivaManchVegas

Posted
Posted

We rebounded to 38 from a low of 6.  Impressive. Milky sky.  Revised GYX forecast had us topping out at 36.  Sundown temperature of 32.  Calling for about 0.4" of freezing rain followed by 37 degrees and 0.25" of rain, hopefully enough to minimize the power outage threat before the winds move in tomorrow night.  

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

I just noticed that the NWS upgraded my area to a Winter Storm Warning.  I know Dendy was not overly impressed yesterday and Tip for several reasons was not impressed earlier.  It is currently 34/14F.   Any changes in thoughts or basically just some slippery roads and some glazing but not enough for power concerns etc.

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CTSkywarn

CTSkywarn

Posted
Posted
No need to...  
the cold you are referring is particularly low level, and not substantive in the mass loading into this system's preceding environment.  The "real" synoptic cold is still low ... 22-ish with DPs of 10 or so, but with such limited +PP ( positive pressure pattern (high pressure) ) situated N, a 20 to 25 kt sustained 925 mb low arriving flow will change the setting very quickly.   
These metrical limitations on this system are not going anywhere.   They are a predicament/detriment to this system's ability to maintain froze or freezing profiles.    
Lemme tell you something ... in late January 1994, we awoke one faithful morning to Winter Weather Advisory headlines in place, a temperature of 9 F on the weather lab's tele, and periodic flurries/grits coming down in the dim blue light of dawn throughout the Merrimack Valley.  Deep winter was in place.   By noon, sleet pellets had broken out, there was a south breeze, and the temperature had risen to 23 or so...  By 3 pm, it was 31 F with steady freezing rain.  By 6pm, it was 53 F with wildly swaying tree tops, and ice fog rolling off the snow pack and piles.  By 9pm, it was 61 F with 55 mph gusts. Student around the campus had spilled into the commons and down town streets of Lowell's pubs, in short sleeve shirts that seemed to finalize a defiant mockery of winter...  
9 to 61, in 12 hours.   
All because a cutter went through BUF-ish, and had no antecedent +PP to protect from the arriving WCB ( warm conveyor belt ) -related wind field.  
Now, this situation doesn't have a 65 kt 920 mb jet core fire hosing at it...no.  But, the 40 kts with no leading surface high is going to still reverse the tables and do it probably at a speed that comes to some surprise to people, even in the valleys.  
Jh
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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

GYX going aggressive. Might be a few fender benders on 93 tomorrow morning.

StormTotalIce.jpg

lol…that’s like 70% of the euro qpf in the Merrimack Valley. We’re not getting a half inch of accretion  

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