January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, Shad said:

Just checked the mean on the EPS 12z ....its actually a big improvement from the 0z  (dont have access to the 6z)  as some have said there are a handful 4-6 members that are likely skewing the mean a bit from being further west and even a touch north.....also notice 2 clusters that are considerable west and another that are northwest of the mean....i think this trends somewhat west the next few runs.....how much remains to be seen.....if I were on the coast I would still be quite optimistic

For some reason I’m feeling that way too, we’ll see! 

[LeesburgWx]

21 minutes ago, IronTy said:

WTF, is this like a polymarket to trade weather forecasting?

Where you been?

[osfan24]

Bernie Rayno thinks the problem is the kicker flying in to push it east and not allowing it up the coast.

[FatherNature]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Bernie Rayno thinks the problem is the kicker flying in to push it east and not allowing it up the coast.

Tyler Loop?

[Bob Chill]

CIPS analogs from the 12z gfs run are quite weenie'ish... lol

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F108&rundt=2026012712&map=thbCOOP72

[Heisy]

The GFS uses some of its initialization data from the prior runs 6hr forecast. When I saw the 6z gfs I had a feeling 12z run would do what it did. It takes a few cycles to purge itself.

I feel like the cmc ensemble mean is a very realistic outcome, but eps is highly concerning.

Anyway, going forward the next time period to keep an eye on is the 5th which grew some legs on the Ai & some other ensemble means today.

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CIPS analogs from the 12z gfs run are quite weenie'ish... lol

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F108&rundt=2026012712&map=thbCOOP72

Tbf, this just shows that the ceiling is still sky high and the floor is still very low.

[BristowWx]

14 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

On the Euro and GFS at 500 MB, what, if anything is north of the storm's evolution which eventually may push it to the east or northeast?

Best we can hope for is that north ULL maybe around N NC.  Negative tilt in E KY would be nice but might be a bridge too far.  I’d be happy with like a 3-6 deal all snow.  Maybe some wind.  We’ll see 

[somecallmetim]

With the road conditions around my neighborhood, even a 1-3 inch snowfall followed by another week of frigid weather would have a very outsized impact. Looks like my days in VT out there right now.

[snowfan]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CIPS analogs from the 12z gfs run are quite weenie'ish... lol

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F108&rundt=2026012712&map=thbCOOP72

Jan 96 and 2016....no complaints here.

[AlexD1990]

Just now, snowfan said:

Jan 96 and 2016....no complaints here.

i believe @psuhoffmansaid those would probably show up around this time 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

i believe @psuhoffmansaid those would probably show up around this time 

He definitely did lol. Now we just need to send him the bat signal to tell us the models will start catching on by this time tomorrow.

[stormy]

I melted the snow and sleet in my large Tru-Check rain gauge.     2.10 inches Saturday/Sunday.

The Canadian was the winner at 2.01 inches.  The GFS said 1.90" and the EURO said 1.60".

 

 

 

[benjammin]

I melted the snow and sleet in my large Tru-Check rain gauge.     2.10 inches Saturday/Sunday.
The Canadian was the winner at 2.01 inches.  The GFS said 1.90" and the EURO said 1.60".
 
 
 

And the NAM much lower would be my guess?

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Bernie Rayno thinks the problem is the kicker flying in to push it east and not allowing it up the coast.

Posted that 2 hours ago. He's a copy cat! Lol

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

I melted the snow and sleet in my large Tru-Check rain gauge.     2.10 inches Saturday/Sunday.

The Canadian was the winner at 2.01 inches.  The GFS said 1.90" and the EURO said 1.60".

 

 

 

We were literally 4 degrees away from a 25+ bomb

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z HRRR at range compared to 12Z GFS and EURO

[Amped]

96 and 2016 both trended north as we moved closer in.  In 2016 Euro was way too low with totals in the I81 and I78 corridors.

This is unusually low predictability, so that may cancel out modeling improvements since 2016. 

[EHoffman]

4 minutes ago, Nomz said:

We were literally 4 degrees away from a 25+ bomb

So you're saying it wasn't even close?

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

So you're saying it wasn't even close?

well yes but let me dream

[somecallmetim]

9 minutes ago, Amped said:

96 and 2016 both trended north as we moved closer in.  In 2016 Euro was way too low with totals in the I81 and I78 corridors.

This is unusually low predictability, so that may cancel out modeling improvements since 2016. 

I was on the mid-CT coast in 96 for the early Jan blizzard. Went into NYC for the day, and left with a forecast of light snow, but with the outside chance still of up to 4-8 if everything broke right. Came home that evening and they had activated the Emergency Broadcast System (the old school long beep), for an impending blizzard.

The next morning the weather radio cycled through the three CT region forecasts. Northern CT was a Winter Storm Warning. Mid CT was the old Heavy Snow Warning. They got to the coast, and I was bracing for a forecast of a change to rain, but it was a Blizzard warning. What dreams are made of.
 

[stormy]

9 minutes ago, benjammin said:

And the NAM much lower would be my guess?

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

Sorry, I don't have records of the NAM

[stormy]

9 minutes ago, Nomz said:

We were literally 4 degrees away from a 25+ bomb

At 10:1 it would have been 21 inches for my backyd.

[Paleocene]

someone extrapolate the NAM

[IronTy]

42 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Where you been?

This sounds like an easy way for old pro model watchers like us to print money on the backs of newbie apple weather app watchers placing long bets ten days out.   They all be placing bets for the next storm of the century and we just have to open short positions for expiry four days before the progged storm.  

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

This sounds like an easy way for old pro model watchers like us to print money on the backs of newbie apple weather app watchers placing long bets ten days out.   They all be placing bets for the next storm of the century and we just have to open short positions for expiry four days before the progged storm.  

I mean if nothing, it's a good emotional hedge. Either you make money or you get snow.

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

someone extrapolate the NAM

I'm getting there

[GreyHat]

In the news

 

[Nomz]

Is there a reason you guys prefer 500mb vort maps over 500mb wind isotachs?

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Is there a reason you guys prefer 500mb vort maps over 500mb wind isotachs?

Vort maps are the best depiction of upper level energy and how it progresses. Vorticity is where all the good stuff is born.