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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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Just now, bncho said:

It's a 20yd FG attempt. you can't miss.

Chuckles nervously in Minnesota Vikings...

Looking back at the prior runs, it was the 12z GFS run yesterday that figured out that the storm was not a cutter.  Since then it has been consistently south, but we have plenty of time.  The other solutions this morning are really fun to see.

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Tempted to say you can lock this one in because I am traveling to New Orleans Saturday morning and coming back Monday. With my luck not only will we get a KU while I am gone, but we’ll be stranded at the airport trying to get home. Nervous for my dog too if it’s bad, even trusting the sitter…

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38 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What time do you think we need these models to hold through to start getting legit excited? My benchmark is inside tomorrow 12z runs as The Storm That Shall Not Be Named fell apart five days before it occurred so I'll wait till tomorrow. 

A lot of that depends on the setup and how developed the storm is in advance. A fast moving NS wave diving down out of Canada and rounding the base is usually moisture starved before the turn and typically has a narrow stripe. Very hard to nail down even at 48-72 hours.

This event is nothing like that. Precip will already be breaking out 4 days in advance and the main energy isn't embedded in fast flow. Precip will also cover a pretty large area. Its a classic setup for SE/MA winter wx. For those reasons we'll prob safely know the bulk of who's getting winter wx by 96 hrs with the edges and mix line location causing the most uncertainty. People solidy in the middle of the snow zone by 96hrs can feel pretty good about getting hit. 

Finer details like max stripes and total qpf in general will always wobble even at 24-48hrs. Subtle differences in track and strength can cause fairly large shifts in amounts. All this said, I expect good agreement with all models for the bulk of the snow zone by 0z Tuesday. Famous last words.... lol

Eta: I meant 0z Wednesday runs or tomorrow night. Not tonight's 0z suite

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Debbie Downer wants to remind everyone that there are reasons we have had like 1 KU in a La Nina in the history of the Mid-Atlantic region since the last glacial maximum

Yea but I thought the Canadien and UK always led the way at this range?

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