January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chris78]

22 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

GFS and Euro couldn't be anymore different 

I know what your saying. Our sensible weather is very different between the 2 models  but in the grand scheme there really pretty close overall. Both have a significant Winter storm in the east in the day 8 - 10 time frame.

[stormy]

I don't mind sharing!   I'll send half of my 8 to D.C. for the 00 run.

4 and 4 seems like a good deal.

[bncho]

GEFS lit up

[Bob Chill]

CFS weeks 5-6 look ideal for Feb snow and cold. Yea it's the CFS and it's way out there but looks like this are friendly for the MA and SE. Gulf connection and horizontal battleground heh. Kitchen sink pattern with all frozen on the table. Maybe a sleet bomb redux lol

 

[mitchnick]

Eps likes late next weekend and not suppression. 

[brooklynwx99]

this is eye popping. classic MECS preloading and pattern progression with the retrograding/decaying Scandi block, rising PNA, departing 50/50 ULL and amping trough over the E US

[winter_warlock]

27 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I know what your saying. Our sensible weather is very different between the 2 models  but in the grand scheme there really pretty close overall. Both have a significant Winter storm in the east in the day 8 - 10 time frame.

8 -10 days out that's all u can ask for 

[Maestrobjwa]

30 minutes ago, stormy said:

I don't mind sharing!   I'll send half of my 8 to D.C. for the 00 run.

4 and 4 seems like a good deal.

Hey hey what about the less fortunate in Baltimore and just west? We're people too 

[Blizzard of 93]

AI EPS at 12z just had its best run of the Winter just going by the snow map for the upcoming 15 days.

[jayyy]

AI EPS at 12z just had its best run of the Winter just going by the snow map for the upcoming 15 days.

That’s the ensemble mean? lol. AI EPS gone wild

[poolz1]

Just looking way out there, we may see a repeat of the upcoming 2 weeks reload and repeat the 2nd and 3rd week in February.  With the first week in feb being a brief relax.  You can already see the Pac ull start to pull back at the end of the EPS.  Looks like the ridge is about to spike again out west.  Follows the weeklies evolution.   All while the Atlantic remains favorable.

Maybe we see a Nina start to the winter and a Nino ending.

 

[jayyy]

Gonna need to change my briefs after that 12z ensemble suite. Lordy.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That’s the ensemble mean? lol. AI EPS gone wild

Unfortunately I’m like 95% sure it struggles with precip depiction. But the more the merrier regardless- I’d just chop this down by a quarter. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

AI EPS at 12z just had its best run of the Winter just going by the snow map for the upcoming 15 days.

This ensemble mean was absolutely high on drugs though earlier this winter, it was showing like 6 inches when it was clear we were getting nothing.  Hopefully this time it’s onto something. 

[jayyy]

Unfortunately I’m like 95% sure it struggles with precip depiction. But the more the merrier regardless- I’d just chop this down by a quarter. 

For sure taken with a grain of salt. All we should be taking away from these ensembles is that cold air availability and moisture transport could be plentiful over the next 3 weeks.

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Gonna need to change my briefs after that 12z ensemble suite. Lordy.

Yep.  Unless I put a sloppy Joe in my pocket subconsciously then I’m gonna also need a clean up on aisle 10 after that run. 

[stormy]

36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey hey what about the less fortunate in Baltimore and just west? We're people too 

Please forgive me!!!  I'm so sorry!   I'll send 4 to D.C. from my cut. AND, 4 to you from Roanoke.

I'm serious!!  If you don't believe me, just wait til 00z................ 

[stormtracker]

21 minutes ago, stormy said:

Please forgive me!!!  I'm so sorry!   I'll send 4 to D.C. from my cut. AND, 4 to you from Roanoke.

I'm serious!!  If you don't believe me, just wait til 00z................ 

GreyHat declared this over because Heatmiser is programming the models.  

[Eskimo Joe]

You can tell today's 12z suite was legit good because the usual agitators are nowhere to be found.

[Scraff]

Happy hour GooFuS! Let’s Goooooo!!!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Im about to have dinner service at our restaurant. I fully expect when I log on later to be seeing stories of HECS and ejecting bowling balls. So, make it happen!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You can tell today's 12z suite was legit good because the usual agitators are nowhere to be found.

Hush!!!  Don't "JI"nx it!!! 

[stormtracker]

When I find the moderator that deleted my Tequila tip, please see me in my office.

Yall say your last goodbye to @WxUSAF. No severance package.

[stormy]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

GreyHat declared this over because Heatmiser is programming the models.  

That's cool,  GreyHat and I used to be drinkin buddies.............

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

When I find the moderator that deleted my Tequila tip, please see me in my office.

Yall say your last goodbye to @WxUSAF. No severance package.

Wish I could take credit! Wasn’t me boss!!

[bncho]

Randy was so devastated by the loss of his Tequila post that he temporarily resigned from PBPing the HH GFS. 

[stormtracker]

so far GFS similar for that 22nd thing if anybody cares.  Now back out west, H5 is different.  Shocker.  Less s/w energy, weaker.  Might not be a bad thing...we'lll see

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Randy was so devastated by the loss of his Tequila post that he temporarily resigned from PBPing the HH GFS. 

I'm here.  Cooking too for a dinner party im having.  Def prob won't be sober for 0z pbp

[stormtracker]

What the hell are we looking for again?

[stormtracker]

Yeah, out west GFS h5 is vastly different for that wave that produces our ice storm from 12z. Anemic out there