January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Prismshine Productions]

My family lives in the South Carolina Midlands/Lowcountry... Rare case where I actually have to dip back into the Southeast Sanctum to track a storm

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[Go Kart Mozart]

Does anyone have ensemble clusters they can post?

[vortex95]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if CoastalWx agrees? I thought it was -12 to -18?

-12 to -18 C.  That sound right,  Perhaps I was thinking the HGZ (hail growth layer) or the ideal charge layer for LTG for mixed phase!

[CoastalWx]

That was the event @ORH_wxman and I talk about where we had synoptic sleet with heavy OE snow at NZW. One of those Jan 94 events. 

[SouthCoastMA]

12z EPS showing some hangback moisture on Monday into Tuesday - i'm guessing a few members showing redevelopment or invt trough hanging back. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

12z EPS showing some hangback moisture on Monday - i'm guessing a few members showing redevelopment or invt trough hanging back. 

Hopefully it's an inverted tough.

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah there's an IVT sig on the op Euro...

GGEM's actually spinning up a new cyclogen with that.  

both these models have more N/stream attempting to run up after the escaping low pressure, and it's helping to lower/expand back west as that's happening. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

Quick glance and thoughts, sorry if posted earlier:

• GFS / AIGFS alone in terms of timing of stream interactions, too little too late for SNE... can't be certain it's wrong, but I favor this having impact on SNE, and potentially very big impact if we can get northern stream interaction sooner rather than a later infusion of trailing energy at exit

• some similarities to Feb 15-18 2003 aka PD2 at H5... https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2003/us0217.php

• interesting that AI-GFS vs. AI-EC very different from each other compared to their strong consensus for Jan 18 event

• lost in the trenches of forecasting an upcoming event... this definitely feels like we're turning a corner in SNE compared to last 4 years

This is a high stakes event, for the period and for winter in general.

There is upper end potential, which we have t really seen in years.

However, I know the setup is different; but you just have to hope this isn’t a Feb 2016, where NYC is getting 30 inches and we are choking on 4-8” of arctic sand.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is a high stakes event, for the period and for winter in general.

There is upper end potential, which we have t really seen in years.

However, I know the setup is different; but you just have to hope this isn’t a Feb 2016, where NYC is getting 30 inches and we are choking on 4-8” of arctic sand.

Jan 16, but we knew what you meant. That was actually pretty good up to my hood..but not to far north of me it cut off big time. 

[MegaMike]

31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Does anyone have ensemble clusters they can post?

12z diagnostic mslp, prate, type, etc... and 12z ensemble spread at forecast hour 132: 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

yeah, collectively let's all try our best to bring this one way north.  

Let’s get it to Quebec

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is a high stakes event, for the period and for winter in general.

There is upper end potential, which we have t really seen in years.

However, I know the setup is different; but you just have to hope this isn’t a Feb 2016, where NYC is getting 30 inches and we are choking on 4-8” of arctic sand.

I don't think cutoffs here will be nearly as drastic. Right now I'll take my 0.4-0.5 convert that to 7-8 inches of snow and call it a day. 

I'm 50 miles due north of NYC and still have nightmares about that storm. 30 inches in NYC like you said, I received 12 only because a heavy band rotated over my area for 2-3 hours. 10 miles north of me 6 inches.
 

Watching the heavy stuff on radar for hours failing to advance, It took years of therapy for me to recover. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s get it to Quebec

Maybe get DIT his once in a lifetime icer? 

[wxsniss]

33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is a high stakes event, for the period and for winter in general.

There is upper end potential, which we have t really seen in years.

However, I know the setup is different; but you just have to hope this isn’t a Feb 2016, where NYC is getting 30 inches and we are choking on 4-8” of arctic sand.

Agree I've been browsing through NARR there are H5 similarities to Jan 1994 and Feb 2013... it's nice to be in a favorable setup for a change... in the what's-more-important cold vs. qpf debate for optimizing chances, we're rolling with cold for a few weeks and I think we do well

[Go Kart Mozart]

The 18z Nam.  What more can I say.

[vortex95]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was the event @ORH_wxman and I talk about where we had synoptic sleet with heavy OE snow at NZW. One of those Jan 94 events. 

That's when Machester-by-the-Sea had the weenie OES 23"?

[ineedsnow]

18z NAM and RGEM look good here tomorrow night

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z NAM and RGEM look good here tomorrow night

Yeah. That has been sneaky

[ariof]

9 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The 18z Nam.  What more can I say.

Quick someone crank up the DGEX!

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z NAM and RGEM look good here tomorrow night

1-2 from about HFD north 

[Go Kart Mozart]

18z gfs a bit quicker with the San Diego energy, stabbing westward into Alberta with northern stream.  Thru 48hrs.

[ineedsnow]

hr 72  you can already tell this will be north of 12z

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

hr 72  you can already tell this will be north of 12z

Yup, shit streak giving ground, energy over Montana taking aim at the SW.

[ineedsnow]

AI GFS way north of 12z