January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dryslot]

I had mentioned a few days back i liked the 02/01 period.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Now thats biblical. 

Not to bog down the rush ... it's fun!! 

But this period of time between really the 25 and Ground Hog Day has been in the indices for 10 days at this point.  

The greatest "non-linear" support has been 29/30/31 ...  Feb 1 is still part of this total window, and could also be tapping into the background constructive interference.  

I want to start a thread for this, because I don't have a problem with well above normal/climo confidence for this particularly system. 

It would actually help it if the 26/27 event evacuates out of the synoptic scope sooner rather than later.  

[Torch Tiger]

finally a storm truly worth tracking

[dryslot]

May have to save that kuchie map on the GFS, Not often you get 20-50"+ totals........... lol

[nbweather]

ECMWF-EPS and EPS-AIFS ensembles have had some a signal for a while now around the end of the month. Some pretty member MSLP's in the GOM into Eastern Canada. Lets hope. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

finally a storm truly worth tracking

both have snow, so bad for you either way. 

[CoastalWx]

All downhill from here

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Does he think it’s a flex to ride a 3-day old forecast when model guidance on the upper air evolution is moving against him? I haven’t read much of him, but doing that makes one come across as not being very scientific or evidence-based. 

Consider yourself blessed and don't start-

[Kitz Craver]

15 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Thread time?  this storm already kinda blows, esp. being like pd2. Would rather discuss the bomb next week

When we are in a pre-gasmic storm build up the trolling really falls flat dude

[8611Blizz]

2015 is not walking through that door.... yet.

[Go Kart Mozart]

This is for entertainment value only....fun to look at even if divorced from reality:

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

All downhill from here

expecting a 12z Euro pbp from Dendrite and Dryslot to seal the deal.

half joking of course

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to bog down the rush ... it's fun!! 

But this period of time between really the 25 and Ground Hog Day has been in the indices for 10 days at this point.  

The greatest "non-linear" support has been 29/30/31 ...  Feb 1 is still part of this total window, and could also be tapping into the background constructive interference.  

I want to start a thread for this, because I don't have a problem with well above normal/climo confidence for this particularly system. 

It would actually help it if the 26/27 event evacuates out of the synoptic scope sooner rather than later.  

Do the honors-

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

When we are in a pre-gasmic storm build up the trolling really falls flat dude

There is already a thread going...quit trolling 

[Torch Tiger]

Looks liike aigfs squashed our end-of-month storm. Not a bad spot to be though

[moneypitmike]

Retreat time?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Might be ok, especially with the way this thing has barreled northward.....

That’s my take too 

[ORH_wxman]

I moved the last page of posts about Sunday/Monday to the other thread. 
 

It’s gonna get messy in here with other storm signals showing up now for late Jan and early Feb. 

[Hailstoned]

25 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

No one, ABSOLUTELY No one is touching that yard unless it’s me or my parents.  NO one.

I’m a Nazi with how it gets shoveled, AS is my dad.  And it’s massively broken up old asphalt at this point, snow blowers would shoot rocks through the windows.  They’d rather stay stuck at home vs. that.  

Perhaps a squeeze box can be adapted for the delicate clearing your parents' driveway requires?

[Chrisrotary12]

47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Verbatim on the GFS I think you would see a major band well up to the Mass Pike. Imagine if we were to pop at 700 low...damn 

If we could avoid the 700 & 850 mb lows going to Montreal like the 00z Euro show that would be nice. 

A very broad 6-10" for the whole region feels like the proper forecast at the moment.

[gonegalt]

26 minutes ago, nbweather said:

ECMWF-EPS and EPS-AIFS ensembles have had some a signal for a while now around the end of the month. Some pretty member MSLP's in the GOM into Eastern Canada. Lets hope. 

You meant GOA.

[nbweather]

3 minutes ago, gonegalt said:

You meant GOA.

I meant Gulf of Maine in this case. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

LMAO

We have a current problem on my street here in Ayer where despite the fact that there are no homes/driveways geographically located on the south side of the road,  this town's nimrod dumb ass f***tard keeps plowing from S --> N... 

We come out in the morning and we all have this plowed berm sealing us in with cardiac risks because of this dumb fucker.   I dunno... it's so elegantly obtuse that maybe it's on-purpose?

Our 4 winters in the back settlement in Fort Kent averaged 141".  We lived on the north side of the road and the end of plowing.  Plow drivers had to plow our side first, but they didn't have to clear 3/4 of the final width on that first pass.  Banks would climb to 7-8 feet on our side, 3-4 feet on the other side.  Worst time was in Dec 1983, 10" SN followed by 1"+ RA, followed by another 1.5" and plunging temp.  I faced a wet mess 3 feet high and 5 feet wide - lots of work for the snow scoop.  While I was in the woods west of Allagash, my neighbor plowed the driveway, very helpful but had to leave 30" vertical banks on both sides and back, which were frozen solid by the time I got home.  Short of using dynamite, all scoop dumping had to be into the road rest of winter, including the 18.5" storm in early Feb and 26.5" mid-March.

[mahk_webstah]

I’m confused at how many storms are being modeled. So we have this upcoming one Sunday Monday then do we have another one Thursday and then a third one on Sunday

[weathafella]

So are the euro products and ukmet both delayed today for the 12Z suite?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’m confused at how many storms are being modeled. So we have this upcoming one Sunday Monday then do we have another one Thursday and then a third one on Sunday

Yes but Thursday/Friday and Sunday (2/1) are far from consistent on guidance. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So are the euro products and ukmet both delayed today for the 12Z suite?

Late ECMWF Data Subscribe

Investigating - We currently see no 12z data queued or being disseminated from ECMWF. We will process data as soon as they provide it.
Jan 21, 2026 - 12:29 EST

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So are the euro products and ukmet both delayed today for the 12Z suite?

I've noticed the euro has been a bit late the past several days (at least on weathermodels). Even the 12z GFS bufkit was late on pennstate today 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

If we could avoid the 700 & 850 mb lows going to Montreal like the 00z Euro show that would be nice. 

A very broad 6-10" for the whole region feels like the proper forecast at the moment.

Ahhh, a voice of reason! 

[tamarack]

39 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This is for entertainment value only....fun to look at even if divorced from reality:

56.8" where I grew up in NNJ?  We had 50" there from Jan 19 thru Feb 4 in 1961, but the above shows 7" more and a week shorter.  Can always go up from there.