January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Prismshine Productions]

My family lives in the South Carolina Midlands/Lowcountry... Rare case where I actually have to dip back into the Southeast Sanctum to track a storm

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Go Kart Mozart]

Does anyone have ensemble clusters they can post?

[vortex95]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if CoastalWx agrees? I thought it was -12 to -18?

-12 to -18 C.  That sound right,  Perhaps I was thinking the HGZ (hail growth layer) or the ideal charge layer for LTG for mixed phase!

[CoastalWx]

That was the event @ORH_wxman and I talk about where we had synoptic sleet with heavy OE snow at NZW. One of those Jan 94 events. 

[SouthCoastMA]

12z EPS showing some hangback moisture on Monday into Tuesday - i'm guessing a few members showing redevelopment or invt trough hanging back. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

12z EPS showing some hangback moisture on Monday - i'm guessing a few members showing redevelopment or invt trough hanging back. 

Hopefully it's an inverted tough.

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah there's an IVT sig on the op Euro...

GGEM's actually spinning up a new cyclogen with that.  

both these models have more N/stream attempting to run up after the escaping low pressure, and it's helping to lower/expand back west as that's happening. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

Quick glance and thoughts, sorry if posted earlier:

• GFS / AIGFS alone in terms of timing of stream interactions, too little too late for SNE... can't be certain it's wrong, but I favor this having impact on SNE, and potentially very big impact if we can get northern stream interaction sooner rather than a later infusion of trailing energy at exit

• some similarities to Feb 15-18 2003 aka PD2 at H5... https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2003/us0217.php

• interesting that AI-GFS vs. AI-EC very different from each other compared to their strong consensus for Jan 18 event

• lost in the trenches of forecasting an upcoming event... this definitely feels like we're turning a corner in SNE compared to last 4 years

This is a high stakes event, for the period and for winter in general.

There is upper end potential, which we have t really seen in years.

However, I know the setup is different; but you just have to hope this isn’t a Feb 2016, where NYC is getting 30 inches and we are choking on 4-8” of arctic sand.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is a high stakes event, for the period and for winter in general.

There is upper end potential, which we have t really seen in years.

However, I know the setup is different; but you just have to hope this isn’t a Feb 2016, where NYC is getting 30 inches and we are choking on 4-8” of arctic sand.

Jan 16, but we knew what you meant. That was actually pretty good up to my hood..but not to far north of me it cut off big time. 

[MegaMike]

31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Does anyone have ensemble clusters they can post?

12z diagnostic mslp, prate, type, etc... and 12z ensemble spread at forecast hour 132: 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

yeah, collectively let's all try our best to bring this one way north.  

Let’s get it to Quebec

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is a high stakes event, for the period and for winter in general.

There is upper end potential, which we have t really seen in years.

However, I know the setup is different; but you just have to hope this isn’t a Feb 2016, where NYC is getting 30 inches and we are choking on 4-8” of arctic sand.

I don't think cutoffs here will be nearly as drastic. Right now I'll take my 0.4-0.5 convert that to 7-8 inches of snow and call it a day. 

I'm 50 miles due north of NYC and still have nightmares about that storm. 30 inches in NYC like you said, I received 12 only because a heavy band rotated over my area for 2-3 hours. 10 miles north of me 6 inches.
 

Watching the heavy stuff on radar for hours failing to advance, It took years of therapy for me to recover. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s get it to Quebec

Maybe get DIT his once in a lifetime icer? 

[wxsniss]

33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is a high stakes event, for the period and for winter in general.

There is upper end potential, which we have t really seen in years.

However, I know the setup is different; but you just have to hope this isn’t a Feb 2016, where NYC is getting 30 inches and we are choking on 4-8” of arctic sand.

Agree I've been browsing through NARR there are H5 similarities to Jan 1994 and Feb 2013... it's nice to be in a favorable setup for a change... in the what's-more-important cold vs. qpf debate for optimizing chances, we're rolling with cold for a few weeks and I think we do well

[Go Kart Mozart]

The 18z Nam.  What more can I say.

[vortex95]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was the event @ORH_wxman and I talk about where we had synoptic sleet with heavy OE snow at NZW. One of those Jan 94 events. 

That's when Machester-by-the-Sea had the weenie OES 23"?

[ineedsnow]

18z NAM and RGEM look good here tomorrow night

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z NAM and RGEM look good here tomorrow night

Yeah. That has been sneaky

[ariof]

9 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The 18z Nam.  What more can I say.

Quick someone crank up the DGEX!

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z NAM and RGEM look good here tomorrow night

1-2 from about HFD north 

[Go Kart Mozart]

18z gfs a bit quicker with the San Diego energy, stabbing westward into Alberta with northern stream.  Thru 48hrs.

[ineedsnow]

hr 72  you can already tell this will be north of 12z

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

hr 72  you can already tell this will be north of 12z

Yup, shit streak giving ground, energy over Montana taking aim at the SW.

[ineedsnow]

AI GFS way north of 12z

[codfishsnowman]

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

And it was quick hitter in much of  MA/RI.  I got about 15" in 8 hr in Woburn  Snow began not long after midnight and it was clearing out by 9am!

I was ten years old and I lived in central Connecticut. I remember getting out of school to a lead grey overcast....no dim sun that Friday afternoon. Before I went to bed Hilton was on the news up in the helicopter saying there would be two to four inches of snow as we would be getting a glancing blow. My mom had called earlier from Port Chester NY telling of more than six inches of snow already and it just looked like thick fog outside. I woke up early at six am Saturday morning and it was winding down but we were buried. Both my Dad and Grandpa said a good two feet.  Charlie Bagley was on the radio saying the area received 18 to 24 inches of snow. For days he was in the same camp as Hilton so he quickly went on to talk about how quickly it would be ending lol. The day turned out beautiful with bright sunshine and milder temps up to around 32 in the afternoon. The piles were insane. I wish I had been a little older because I would've stayed up and watched it all night.

.

[dendrite]

Yeah good bump N on the goofus

 

[WxWatcher007]

12z was so much of an outlier on the GFS compared to the rest of the model suite it almost had to revert back. 

[dendrite]

Pump those heights

[OrangeCTWX]

Definitely an improvement. Though still just a scrap for SNE.

[ORH_wxman]

Now there are zero OP models that cleanly whiff SNE. 18z GFS is still kind of a cruddy solution that would prob be about 1-3" of arctic sand (except for the coke streamers on the south shore and Cape Ann), but it's a pretty hefty bump north.