January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[SouthCoastMA]

42 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nope. I just honestly feel like it’s going to get squashed. Not exactly a hot take, that’s what most guidance shows lol

I feel the opposite. Models are probably overplaying the magnitude of the cold press..which as it stands would be extreme. I'm betting on a moderation of that.  That being said, I didn't like seeing the AIGFS go south at 18z but I do think it will end up at least a graze here. 

[UnitedWx]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

There was some big long post with a bunch of letters and numbers.   It has been removed/deleted. 

Must've been the AI attacking 

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro AI slunked south a tad at 18z. Still would be a good position for decent hit

[ORH_wxman]

That’s a better look on 18z euro at H5. Slower and trying to phase in some of that energy

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a better look on 18z euro at H5. Slower and trying to phase in some of that energy

yeah, I feel like there would have been a secondary developing. jet is at least better aloft 

[Lucy Pull]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a better look on 18z euro at H5. Slower and trying to phase in some of that energy

Next couple frames could’ve been interesting.

Almost like this whole potential is changing structurally. Expecting some waffling the next couple days.

[Damage In Tolland]

She is coming in some capacity 

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

She is coming on some capacity 

So is the cold. 

 

[cleetussnow]

Anyone else concerned Lucy Pull entered the chat?

[kdxken]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Anyone else concerned Lucy Pull entered the chat?

Likely torch tiger f****** around.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, I feel like there would have been a secondary developing. jet is at least better aloft 

I thought this was a huge overrunning set up? What’s this talk of a secondary now? (coastal?). How does that change things for us in SNE? 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Anyone else concerned Lucy Pull entered the chat?

NNE has no shot with the amount of cold coming down. SNE has a shot but it might be tough.

Im sweating down here also. Maybe Pope is right. This will be a mid atlantic snowstorm. 

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a better look on 18z euro at H5. Slower and trying to phase in some of that energy

That’s considerably slower/later no? Says 18z(1 pm) on Sunday, and that doesn’t look like there’s anything(no dynamics) here yet. 

[cleetussnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

NNE has no shot with the amount of cold coming down. SNE has a shot but it might be tough.

Im sweating down here also. Maybe Pope is right. This will be a mid atlantic snowstorm. 

We got time.  North trends are real and happen all the time.  They are always unwelcome for someone but I’d be sweating just as much if I was in DC.  SNE is in the game this far out.

[vortex95]

CoastalWx applying "English" to TICK the weekend storm N!?  UKMET does so and GDPS is tryin'.  GFS and ECMWF say no, but a "MIDLO" blockbuster for the Mid-Atlc.

 

This is quite interesting. There is literally nothing at 500, at least I can't find anywhere close to the sfc low.  When it is just off Delmarva, the flow close and over it is actually a bit anticyclonic!  The trough/vort is way W in MKE-DSM area.  I don't think that vort here is driving it.

 

It's a classic Miller A "bottom-up" system.  Strong from sfc-850, but MEH above that.  The Feb 11, 1983 blockbuster was like this.  CoastalWx LUVs this one b/c it was fcst NOT to hit SNE, and a big surprise.  South Weymouth NAS had TS+ and BDL SNOINCR 5.  Also SNOINCR 5 at ABE and LGA had TS+. New all-time 24 hour snowfall records were set at PHL, CXY, and ABE.  Max amount of 35" at Glengary WV.

This event was not a deep sfc low, about 994 mb at its closest approach to SNE, and the weekend storm looks similar.  Also, like Feb 11, 1983, a very cold Arctic air mass was in place over the NEUS, and suppression of the storm track was a big fcst issue!

 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

So is the cold. 

 

She’s so cold ? 

 

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

CoastalWx applying "English" to TICK the weekend storm N!?  UKMET does so and GDPS is tryin'.  GFS and ECMWF say no, but a "MIDLO" blockbuster for the Mid-Atlc.

 

This is quite interesting. There is literally nothing at 500, at least I can't find anywhere close to the sfc low.  When it is just off Delmarva, the flow close and over it is actually a bit anticyclonic!  The trough/vort is way W in MKE-DSM area.  I don't think that vort here is driving it.

 

It's a classic Miller A "bottom-up" system.  Strong from sfc-850, but MEH above that.  The Feb 11, 1983 blockbuster was like this.  CoastalWx LUVs this one b/c it was fcst NOT to hit SNE, and a big surprise.  South Weymouth NAS had TS+ and BDL SNOINCR 5.  Also SNOINCR 5 at ABE and LGA had TS+. New all-time 24 hour snowfall records were set at PHL, CXY, and ABE.  Max amount of 35" at Glengary WV.

This event was not a deep sfc low, about 994 mb at it closest approach to SNE, and the weekend storm look similar.  Also, like Feb 11, 1983, a very cold Arctic air mass was in place over the NEUS, and suppression of the storm track was a big fcst issue!

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

i wouldn't want to be in the bullseye 6 days away from the actual event

[MJO812]

What usually happens is that we typically get a huge storm once the cold air eases. Hopefully this weekends storm comes north.

[Go Kart Mozart]

32 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

CoastalWx applying "English" to TICK the weekend storm N!?  UKMET does so and GDPS is tryin'.  GFS and ECMWF say no, but a "MIDLO" blockbuster for the Mid-Atlc.

 

This is quite interesting. There is literally nothing at 500, at least I can't find anywhere close to the sfc low.  When it is just off Delmarva, the flow close and over it is actually a bit anticyclonic!  The trough/vort is way W in MKE-DSM area.  I don't think that vort here is driving it.

 

It's a classic Miller A "bottom-up" system.  Strong from sfc-850, but MEH above that.  The Feb 11, 1983 blockbuster was like this.  CoastalWx LUVs this one b/c it was fcst NOT to hit SNE, and a big surprise.  South Weymouth NAS had TS+ and BDL SNOINCR 5.  Also SNOINCR 5 at ABE and LGA had TS+. New all-time 24 hour snowfall records were set at PHL, CXY, and ABE.  Max amount of 35" at Glengary WV.

This event was not a deep sfc low, about 994 mb at its closest approach to SNE, and the weekend storm looks similar.  Also, like Feb 11, 1983, a very cold Arctic air mass was in place over the NEUS, and suppression of the storm track was a big fcst issue!

 

One of my all-time favorites.  It was nasty-cold the day when the storm was approaching, it haning at around 17f all day, overcast, freshening NE wind.

The final Accuweather report on 1010 WINS radio in NYC was broadcast at 4:34pm.  It was either Joel Sobel or Elliott Abrams who declared the snow would not get north of the Tappan Zee.

[SouthCoastMA]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What usually happens is that we typically get a huge storm once the cold air eases. Hopefully this weekends storm comes north.

Yeah and then you rain. So I'd be more optimistic considering where you live. 

[powderfreak]

53 minutes ago, kdxken said:

So is the cold. 

 

Sounds pleasant.

Saturday through Sunday, highs near zero and lows -20F .

Friday And Friday Night

Partly cloudy. Highs 10 to 15. Lows around 10 below. 

Saturday Through Sunday

Partly cloudy. Cold. Highs around zero. Lows around 20 below. 

Sunday Night And Monday

Partly cloudy. Lows 10 below to 15 below zero. Highs around 10 above. 

[FXWX]

7 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

One of my all-time favorites.  It was nasty-cold the day when the storm was approaching, it haning at around 17f all day, overcast, freshening NE wind.

The final Accuweather report on 1010 WINS radio in NYC was broadcast at 4:34pm.  It was either Joel Sobel or Elliott Abrams who declared the snow would not get north of the Tappan Zee.

Remember it well!  Obviously different modeling capabilities back then, but there was high confidence that suppression would keep it south with an almost due east deflection... Hours away from huge SNE hit; forecasts were confident of a miss except on the coastal plain.

[tomcatct]

12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

One of my all-time favorites.  It was nasty-cold the day when the storm was approaching, it haning at around 17f all day, overcast, freshening NE wind.

The final Accuweather report on 1010 WINS radio in NYC was broadcast at 4:34pm.  It was either Joel Sobel or Elliott Abrams who declared the snow would not get north of the Tappan Zee.

That 83 storm was awesome I was down in Stamford Connecticut at the time .. that was  the most thunder snow that I've have seen in my whole life... and very heavy snowfall rates

[jbenedet]

58 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

CoastalWx applying "English" to TICK the weekend storm N!?  UKMET does so and GDPS is tryin'.  GFS and ECMWF say no, but a "MIDLO" blockbuster for the Mid-Atlc.

 

This is quite interesting. There is literally nothing at 500, at least I can't find anywhere close to the sfc low.  When it is just off Delmarva, the flow close and over it is actually a bit anticyclonic!  The trough/vort is way W in MKE-DSM area.  I don't think that vort here is driving it.

 

It's a classic Miller A "bottom-up" system.  Strong from sfc-850, but MEH above that.  The Feb 11, 1983 blockbuster was like this.  CoastalWx LUVs this one b/c it was fcst NOT to hit SNE, and a big surprise.  South Weymouth NAS had TS+ and BDL SNOINCR 5.  Also SNOINCR 5 at ABE and LGA had TS+. New all-time 24 hour snowfall records were set at PHL, CXY, and ABE.  Max amount of 35" at Glengary WV.

This event was not a deep sfc low, about 994 mb at its closest approach to SNE, and the weekend storm looks similar.  Also, like Feb 11, 1983, a very cold Arctic air mass was in place over the NEUS, and suppression of the storm track was a big fcst issue!

 

Zzzzzz

1982-1983 was a record setting EL Nino. AN in the north; very warm winter.

 

Meanwhile Boston running -5 in a moderate La Niña….

 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Zzzzzz

1982-1983 was a record setting EL Nino. AN in the north; very warm winter.

 

Meanwhile Boston running -5 in a moderate La Niña….

 

Take it up with Vortex95. Lol

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s considerably slower/later no? Says 18z(1 pm) on Sunday, and that doesn’t look like there’s anything(no dynamics) here yet. 

I guess you were never in the service.

[Fozz]

45 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i wouldn't want to be in the bullseye 6 days away from the actual event

That’s why I don’t think this will bury Raleigh. It will probably be DC/Baltimore, with Philly and NYC in the game for north trends plus SNE if we’re lucky.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

46 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i wouldn't want to be in the bullseye 6 days away from the actual event

I love when people say this.

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I love when people say this.

 

at 0z run: big move north or i stfu for 48 hours!