January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

CPC is ending up with a disagreement out there toward the 20th

Yea, think the AIEPS is still correcting...

[SnowGoose69]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@qg_omegaHave you been keeping track of this?

Flip back to RNA started out at 1/15 as of the 1/2run, now it's 1/20 and sliding....

I think it still eventually goes but I had said a week ago the +PNA was likely going to hold longer than ensembles showed.  They've just been bad past about D8-10 this winter but reasonably good with the pattern ideas up til D10.  I think the EPS at D16 may be showing signs of a breakdown coming soon after that.  The evolution back to the -PNA may not be the typical shift west of the EPO/PNA ridge but may be the Pac jet smashing it down and then the -PNA evolving after that.  If you loop the EPS from D14-16 it appear maybe if ran out to D20 that would be what happens.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it still eventually goes but I had said a week ago the +PNA was likely going to hold longer than ensembles showed.  They've just been bad past about D8-10 this winter but reasonably good with the pattern ideas up til D10.  I think the EPS at D16 may be showing signs of a breakdown coming soon after that.  The evolution back to the -PNA may not be the typical shift west of the EPO/PNA ridge but may be the Pac jet smashing it down and then the -PNA evolving after that.  If you loop the EPS from D14-16 it appear maybe if ran out to D20 that would be what happens.

Oh yes...February will definitely be RNA and probably March, too.

[ORH_wxman]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I buy it...I know someone like @qg_omegawill beat me over the head for that, but this season is going to eventually produce....I don't think I'm going to challenge my futility record.

It's kind of wild that just taking a random loop of the 06z GFS, we have like 3-4 distinct shortwaves over the next 10 days that dive into the eastern US and none of them can produce any meaningful QPF. Hopefully that changes, but this is quickly turning into a very dry winter if we can't get these things to produce anything. 

[SouthCoastMA]

This could be huge, all

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

This could be huge, all

I haven't viewed one of that bafoon's videos in over a year....I realized quickly what he was. The WORST out there, and there are some bad ones.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't viewed one of that bafoon's videos in over a year....I realized quickly what he was. The WORST out there, and there are some bad ones.

Alot of hypersters that call themselves meteorologists on youtube.

[Snowcrazed71]

26 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

This could be huge, all

Honestly and truly, this guy is a complete joke. His whole premise was always to blow things into the stratosphere. All of his words consist of " HUGE, ARCTIC OUTBREAKS, BLIZZARDS, ". I'm not saying this guy is impassionate, but man, he is definitely one of those people on social media that cause a frenzy to most people who have no idea what's going on

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Last night’s surprise 2.5  is 250x what ill get on the 15/16.

 

 

Nice!  We had some mood flakes while driving home from Farmington last evening.  Snow squalls are admittingly hit or miss, but we get the miss at a high percentage, except when we lived in Fort Kent where they were common.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Snooze fest through mid next week on the gfs 

[CoastalWx]

Canadian and a few other models like something bear the 20th too.

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian and a few other models like something bear the 20th too.

That period at least to have less in the way of potential destructive interference. Kind of like how things seem to evolve past that period.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't viewed one of that bafoon's videos in over a year....I realized quickly what he was. The WORST out there, and there are some bad ones.

NE weenie alert is all in on 360hr 2m temps

[ariof]

3 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

This could be huge, all

WATCH the storm go
OUT to sea

[ariof]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NE weenie alert is all in on 360hr 2m temps

Sure and if that verified then MSP would see its:

First -20 temp since Jan 2019*
First -30 temp since Feb 1996**
First -35 temp since Jan 1888***

Lock it in.

* At almost 7 years since -20, it's the longest >-20° there; previous 5-year streaks ending 1961, 2004, 2009, 2014
** 30 years is by far the longest such run for -30°, three others at 19 years ending 1935, 1962, 1996
*** -41° in 1888 is the record and the most recent <-35° of four occurrences. -34 did occur in 1934 and 1970.

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, ariof said:

Sure and if that verified then MSP would see its:

First -20 temp since Jan 2019*
First -30 temp since Feb 1996**
First -35 temp since Jan 1888***

Lock it in.

* At almost 7 years since -20, it's the longest >-20° there; previous 5-year streaks ending 1961, 2004, 2009, 2014
** 30 years is by far the longest such run for -30°, three others at 19 years ending 1935, 1962, 1996
*** -41° in 1888 is the record and the most recent <-35° of four occurrences. -34 did occur in 1934 and 1970.

My ex lived in MN during the 96 shot and had one of these shirts

[eduggs]

The mid- and long-range continues to look really active for the north country with this clipper parade. And a lot of these events have better than typical dynamics. I can remember plenty of early Januarys that were dry frozen tundras up in the Dacks. Not this year.

[eduggs]

  

On 1/9/2026 at 11:39 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

I like the second wave more, as is often the case... it doesn't have anything clawing at its back and the antecedent airmass is more favorable. that doesn't preclude the 16th, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the 18th

like one of these is way more typically productive than the other

  

On 1/9/2026 at 12:30 PM, eduggs said:

The 0z ECM at 168hr looks remarkable similar to 246hr. It easy to say now that we prefer the later threat, but when that threat gets nearer it might not look any better.

 

On 1/9/2026 at 12:32 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

this is why we look at ensembles and not OP runs

 

On 1/9/2026 at 12:35 PM, eduggs said:

The point remains. The closer a threat, the clearer we can see its flaws. E.g, ensemble means blend and hide shortwave details that appear in closer ranges. Choosing the 2nd showcase because we don't like the look of the 1st isn't always correct. Jan 15 at one time had a very favorable "look" too.

 

This ECMWF chart below looks a lot like something "clawing at the back" of the east coast trof for the 18th. This perfectly illustrates my point about being cautious about preferring a later threat based on averaged ensemble height fields.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

  

  

 

 

 

This ECMWF chart below looks a lot like something "clawing at the back" of the east coast trof for the 18th. This perfectly illustrates my point about being cautious about preferring a later threat based on averaged ensemble height fields.

why are you like this, dude

[tamarack]

44 minutes ago, ariof said:

Sure and if that verified then MSP would see its:

First -20 temp since Jan 2019*
First -30 temp since Feb 1996**
First -35 temp since Jan 1888***

Lock it in.

* At almost 7 years since -20, it's the longest >-20° there; previous 5-year streaks ending 1961, 2004, 2009, 2014
** 30 years is by far the longest such run for -30°, three others at 19 years ending 1935, 1962, 1996
*** -41° in 1888 is the record and the most recent <-35° of four occurrences. -34 did occur in 1934 and 1970.

Only one -35 or lower, Jan 16, 2009  Same day that Big Black River touched -50, to eclipse Van Buren's -48 for the state's coldest on record.
Six lows of -30 or colder, most recent Jan 27, 2022.
73 lows of -20 or colder, most recent on Feb 4, 2023.
2023-24 and 2024-25 marked the first time for consecutive winters w/o a -20, though last Feb had a -19.  Dec 9, 2025 got down to -18, earliest by 7 days to reach that cold.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why are you like this, dude

I made a perfectly legitimate point. Focus on that instead of me.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's a new one.  

the apex of winter = the nadir of snow results.   

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I made a perfectly legitimate point. Focus on that instead of me.

when you're forecasting past a week out, using ensembles and focusing on the broader pattern to point out timeframes of interest is generally the way to go. this will be taught in every forecasting classroom on the planet. now that we're a few days later on, we can see that there are two distinct waves rather than a single trough (which, by the way, some OP runs had)

this is the way long range forecasting is... the data change sometimes. it doesn't make the process any less valid

[ariof]

44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My ex lived in MN during the 96 shot and had one of these shirts

Oh yeah people there are real proud when it gets cold. And it gets colder with each telling. Duluth hit -39, Embarrass 56, Tower 60. Although people swear they hit -66 if you ask around.

Both Twin Cities newspapers had banner headlines that it reached -60 200 miles away.

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

when you're forecasting past a week out, using ensembles and focusing on the broader pattern to point out timeframes of interest is generally the way to go. this will be taught in every forecasting classroom on the planet. now that we're a few days later on, we can see that there are two distinct waves rather than a single trough (which, by the way, some OP runs had)

this is the way long range forecasting is... the data change sometimes. it doesn't make the process any less valid

 

See, we don't disagree. This was exactly the point I made 3 days ago that you dismissed. Long-range ensemble modeling hides critical shortwave details. That doesn't mean it shouldn't be used as a forecasting tool. But it does bias long-range "looks" positive because it smooths out wave spacing and interference issues.

[kdxken]

Swell

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Swell

No shortage of cold as far out as the eye can see on guidance. We just can’t get any type of QPF to run into it. 

[DJln491]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

NE weenie alert is all in on 360hr 2m temps

start a thread

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

start a thread

The thread was cancelled before it began

[WxWatcher007]

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No shortage of cold as far out as the eye can see on guidance. We just can’t get any type of QPF to run into it. 

Can’t make it up