January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

CPC is ending up with a disagreement out there toward the 20th

Yea, think the AIEPS is still correcting...

[SnowGoose69]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@qg_omegaHave you been keeping track of this?

Flip back to RNA started out at 1/15 as of the 1/2run, now it's 1/20 and sliding....

I think it still eventually goes but I had said a week ago the +PNA was likely going to hold longer than ensembles showed.  They've just been bad past about D8-10 this winter but reasonably good with the pattern ideas up til D10.  I think the EPS at D16 may be showing signs of a breakdown coming soon after that.  The evolution back to the -PNA may not be the typical shift west of the EPO/PNA ridge but may be the Pac jet smashing it down and then the -PNA evolving after that.  If you loop the EPS from D14-16 it appear maybe if ran out to D20 that would be what happens.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it still eventually goes but I had said a week ago the +PNA was likely going to hold longer than ensembles showed.  They've just been bad past about D8-10 this winter but reasonably good with the pattern ideas up til D10.  I think the EPS at D16 may be showing signs of a breakdown coming soon after that.  The evolution back to the -PNA may not be the typical shift west of the EPO/PNA ridge but may be the Pac jet smashing it down and then the -PNA evolving after that.  If you loop the EPS from D14-16 it appear maybe if ran out to D20 that would be what happens.

Oh yes...February will definitely be RNA and probably March, too.

[ORH_wxman]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I buy it...I know someone like @qg_omegawill beat me over the head for that, but this season is going to eventually produce....I don't think I'm going to challenge my futility record.

It's kind of wild that just taking a random loop of the 06z GFS, we have like 3-4 distinct shortwaves over the next 10 days that dive into the eastern US and none of them can produce any meaningful QPF. Hopefully that changes, but this is quickly turning into a very dry winter if we can't get these things to produce anything. 

[SouthCoastMA]

This could be huge, all

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

This could be huge, all

I haven't viewed one of that bafoon's videos in over a year....I realized quickly what he was. The WORST out there, and there are some bad ones.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't viewed one of that bafoon's videos in over a year....I realized quickly what he was. The WORST out there, and there are some bad ones.

Alot of hypersters that call themselves meteorologists on youtube.

[Snowcrazed71]

26 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

This could be huge, all

Honestly and truly, this guy is a complete joke. His whole premise was always to blow things into the stratosphere. All of his words consist of " HUGE, ARCTIC OUTBREAKS, BLIZZARDS, ". I'm not saying this guy is impassionate, but man, he is definitely one of those people on social media that cause a frenzy to most people who have no idea what's going on

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Last night’s surprise 2.5  is 250x what ill get on the 15/16.

 

 

Nice!  We had some mood flakes while driving home from Farmington last evening.  Snow squalls are admittingly hit or miss, but we get the miss at a high percentage, except when we lived in Fort Kent where they were common.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Snooze fest through mid next week on the gfs