January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Man what a snowy run from Georgia to Maine. 

[klw]

1 hour ago, doug1991 said:

What kind of service do you do? 

[Spanks45]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be time to lock in now

I think I joked about that recently....Someone in the SE is going to get a snowstorm, SNE remains to be seen. Happy for them, but seriously where are our crumbs?

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I like the second wave more, as is often the case... it doesn't have anything clawing at its back and the antecedent airmass is more favorable. that doesn't preclude the 16th, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the 18th

like one of these is way more typically productive than the other

...

...

well...it's gotta pick one or the other...

these two have been tussling in the modeled flow for day's at this point.   The latter of the two is obtrusive - it's there because of ( probably ) the "error proneness" of the western ridge being as far west as the GFS keeps placing it.  The standard dimensions for L/W spacing doesn't allow the trough aspect to be coherent.. The models "don't know" what is dominant yet nor it's form - not very well. 

Anyway, if the ridge doesn't improve, the 2nd wave may end up going down the same disruptive route given time.   I'm warning y'all - I'm not wrong about this. The determinism is shaky because of it.   It would be a lot easier if the PNA ridge part of the total wave space would just be a little more east.

By the way, the 2nd of the two is not as well supported by index timing but ... that is actually more negotiable than trying to stretch the trough down stream of that PNA ridge 

[dryslot]

That certainly was an out of the basement run on the 12z GFS, Probably still some ceiling room left too.............

[doug1991]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That certainly was an out of the basement run on the 12z GFS, Probably still some ceiling room left too.............

 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well...it's gotta pick one or the other...

these two have been tussling in the modeled flow for day's at this point.   The latter of the two is obtrusive - it's there because of ( probably ) the "error proneness" of the western ridge being as far west as the GFS keeps placing it.  The standard dimensions for L/W spacing doesn't allow the trough aspect to be coherent.. The models "don't know" what is dominant yet nor it's form - not very well. 

Anyway, if the ridge doesn't improve, the 2nd wave may end up going down the same disruptive route given time.   I'm warning y'all - I'm not wrong about this. The determinism is shaky because of it.   It would be a lot easier if the PNA ridge part of the total wave space would just be a little more east.

By the way, the 2nd of the two is not as well supported by index timing but ... that is actually more negotiable than trying to stretch the trough down stream of that PNA ridge 

well hey, it's trending that way right now

[SJonesWX]

32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

snow from Northern Maine to just about the Gulf Coast.. not often you see that

i fly into MHT on the 19th

[TheMainer]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That certainly was an out of the basement run on the 12z GFS, Probably still some ceiling room left too.............

40 inches over my head, definitely high chance of verifying! 

[Typhoon Tip]

you do get the sense there's incremental improvements.   It's just that the flow being stressed east of the W biased ridge isn't [ probably ] going to provide an arena for chunk move in this case.  

Truth be told ... the position of that PNA ridge actually argues for a storm track between Detroit and Buffalo.  That'd be a hoot.  Hasn't been a model run yet painting that dystopian image hahaha. 

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I think I joked about that recently....Someone in the SE is going to get a snowstorm, SNE remains to be seen. Happy for them, but seriously where are our crumbs?

I meant because Tblizz wrote it off lol.

[eduggs]

49 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I like the second wave more, as is often the case... it doesn't have anything clawing at its back and the antecedent airmass is more favorable. that doesn't preclude the 16th, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the 18th

like one of these is way more typically productive than the other

 

The 0z ECM at 168hr looks remarkable similar to 246hr. It easy to say now that we prefer the later threat, but when that threat gets nearer it might not look any better.

[CoastalWx]

Might be time to break out the Jon Hamm in the club meme as I look at the op runs.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The 0z ECM at 168hr looks remarkable similar to 246hr. It easy to say now that we prefer the later threat, but when that threat gets nearer it might not look any better.

this is why we look at ensembles and not OP runs

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is why we look at ensembles and not OP runs

The point remains. The closer a threat, the clearer we can see its flaws. E.g, ensemble means blend and hide shortwave details that appear in closer ranges. Choosing the 2nd showcase because we don't like the look of the 1st isn't always correct. Jan 15 at one time had a very favorable "look" too.

[cleetussnow]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you do get the sense there's incremental improvements.   It's just that the flow being stressed east of the W biased ridge isn't [ probably ] going to provide an arena for chunk move in this case.  

Truth be told ... the position of that PNA ridge actually argues for a storm track between Detroit and Buffalo.  That'd be a hoot.  Hasn't been a model run yet painting that dystopian image hahaha. 

I was going to quote like 3 posts and say ‘cut’ but I didn’t want to diminish mine or anyones else's optimism.  

[CoastalWx]

Scooter when the op runs finally show some hits inside day 10

 

 

[weatherwiz]

53 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

snow from Northern Maine to just about the Gulf Coast.. not often you see that

violently sell that 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

snow from Northern Maine to just about the Gulf Coast.. not often you see that

Rain in southern CT, frozen in New Orleans. Seems spot on to me. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That certainly was an out of the basement run on the 12z GFS, Probably still some ceiling room left too.............

Definite late-blooming Miller B-east run.

[mahk_webstah]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be time to break out the Jon Hamm in the club meme as I look at the op runs.

Pics

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well hey, it's trending that way right now

I wish I could measure your movies with a yardstick...it would be a much more wintry decade.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wish I could measure your movies with a yardstick...it would be a much more wintry decade.

what else is there to do? not analyze models? that's what we're here for

[ORH_wxman]

Euro likes 1/17….just to trick everyone. It’s really the 1/18 storm but the lead shortwave takes the energy and does a little bomb just SE of us. 

[ORH_wxman]

I think the most important takeaway from the 12z suite is that the longwave ridge is onshore out west or right on the coast and it has a couple pulses up and down…when you have that longwave setup, you’re putting yourself in the firing range so you’re going to get some legit chances with even a little bit of wiggle room. That’s why we’re seeing hits on different models that all look a slightly different with the shortwave evolution. But they all produce something because the longwave pattern wants to put a storm system near the east coast. 
 

Hopefully we don’t see that longwave look degrade as we get closer. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yup, it’s coming…deep winter ahead. 

[Damage In Tolland]

35 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The point remains. The closer a threat, the clearer we can see its flaws. E.g, ensemble means blend and hide shortwave details that appear in closer ranges. Choosing the 2nd showcase because we don't like the look of the 1st isn't always correct. Jan 15 at one time had a very favorable "look" too.

It still does 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Late March spring type feel today. Love it.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Late March spring type feel today. Love it.

Finally a break up here with sun and mild temps. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what else is there to do? not analyze models? that's what we're here for

I know...nothing against you. I just need to laugh because otherwise I'll cry.