dryslot Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Man what a snowy run from Georgia to Maine. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 hour ago, doug1991 said: What kind of service do you do? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might be time to lock in now I think I joked about that recently....Someone in the SE is going to get a snowstorm, SNE remains to be seen. Happy for them, but seriously where are our crumbs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I like the second wave more, as is often the case... it doesn't have anything clawing at its back and the antecedent airmass is more favorable. that doesn't preclude the 16th, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the 18th like one of these is way more typically productive than the other ... ... well...it's gotta pick one or the other... these two have been tussling in the modeled flow for day's at this point. The latter of the two is obtrusive - it's there because of ( probably ) the "error proneness" of the western ridge being as far west as the GFS keeps placing it. The standard dimensions for L/W spacing doesn't allow the trough aspect to be coherent.. The models "don't know" what is dominant yet nor it's form - not very well. Anyway, if the ridge doesn't improve, the 2nd wave may end up going down the same disruptive route given time. I'm warning y'all - I'm not wrong about this. The determinism is shaky because of it. It would be a lot easier if the PNA ridge part of the total wave space would just be a little more east. By the way, the 2nd of the two is not as well supported by index timing but ... that is actually more negotiable than trying to stretch the trough down stream of that PNA ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago That certainly was an out of the basement run on the 12z GFS, Probably still some ceiling room left too............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: That certainly was an out of the basement run on the 12z GFS, Probably still some ceiling room left too............. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: well...it's gotta pick one or the other... these two have been tussling in the modeled flow for day's at this point. The latter of the two is obtrusive - it's there because of ( probably ) the "error proneness" of the western ridge being as far west as the GFS keeps placing it. The standard dimensions for L/W spacing doesn't allow the trough aspect to be coherent.. The models "don't know" what is dominant yet nor it's form - not very well. Anyway, if the ridge doesn't improve, the 2nd wave may end up going down the same disruptive route given time. I'm warning y'all - I'm not wrong about this. The determinism is shaky because of it. It would be a lot easier if the PNA ridge part of the total wave space would just be a little more east. By the way, the 2nd of the two is not as well supported by index timing but ... that is actually more negotiable than trying to stretch the trough down stream of that PNA ridge well hey, it's trending that way right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: snow from Northern Maine to just about the Gulf Coast.. not often you see that i fly into MHT on the 19th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: That certainly was an out of the basement run on the 12z GFS, Probably still some ceiling room left too............. 40 inches over my head, definitely high chance of verifying! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago you do get the sense there's incremental improvements. It's just that the flow being stressed east of the W biased ridge isn't [ probably ] going to provide an arena for chunk move in this case. Truth be told ... the position of that PNA ridge actually argues for a storm track between Detroit and Buffalo. That'd be a hoot. Hasn't been a model run yet painting that dystopian image hahaha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 27 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I think I joked about that recently....Someone in the SE is going to get a snowstorm, SNE remains to be seen. Happy for them, but seriously where are our crumbs? I meant because Tblizz wrote it off lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 49 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I like the second wave more, as is often the case... it doesn't have anything clawing at its back and the antecedent airmass is more favorable. that doesn't preclude the 16th, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the 18th like one of these is way more typically productive than the other The 0z ECM at 168hr looks remarkable similar to 246hr. It easy to say now that we prefer the later threat, but when that threat gets nearer it might not look any better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Might be time to break out the Jon Hamm in the club meme as I look at the op runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 1 minute ago, eduggs said: The 0z ECM at 168hr looks remarkable similar to 246hr. It easy to say now that we prefer the later threat, but when that threat gets nearer it might not look any better. this is why we look at ensembles and not OP runs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is why we look at ensembles and not OP runs The point remains. The closer a threat, the clearer we can see its flaws. E.g, ensemble means blend and hide shortwave details that appear in closer ranges. Choosing the 2nd showcase because we don't like the look of the 1st isn't always correct. Jan 15 at one time had a very favorable "look" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you do get the sense there's incremental improvements. It's just that the flow being stressed east of the W biased ridge isn't [ probably ] going to provide an arena for chunk move in this case. Truth be told ... the position of that PNA ridge actually argues for a storm track between Detroit and Buffalo. That'd be a hoot. Hasn't been a model run yet painting that dystopian image hahaha. I was going to quote like 3 posts and say ‘cut’ but I didn’t want to diminish mine or anyones else's optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Scooter when the op runs finally show some hits inside day 10 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 53 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: snow from Northern Maine to just about the Gulf Coast.. not often you see that violently sell that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: snow from Northern Maine to just about the Gulf Coast.. not often you see that Rain in southern CT, frozen in New Orleans. Seems spot on to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 47 minutes ago, dryslot said: That certainly was an out of the basement run on the 12z GFS, Probably still some ceiling room left too............. Definite late-blooming Miller B-east run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might be time to break out the Jon Hamm in the club meme as I look at the op runs. Pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: well hey, it's trending that way right now I wish I could measure your movies with a yardstick...it would be a much more wintry decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wish I could measure your movies with a yardstick...it would be a much more wintry decade. what else is there to do? not analyze models? that's what we're here for 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Euro likes 1/17….just to trick everyone. It’s really the 1/18 storm but the lead shortwave takes the energy and does a little bomb just SE of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago I think the most important takeaway from the 12z suite is that the longwave ridge is onshore out west or right on the coast and it has a couple pulses up and down…when you have that longwave setup, you’re putting yourself in the firing range so you’re going to get some legit chances with even a little bit of wiggle room. That’s why we’re seeing hits on different models that all look a slightly different with the shortwave evolution. But they all produce something because the longwave pattern wants to put a storm system near the east coast. Hopefully we don’t see that longwave look degrade as we get closer. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Yup, it’s coming…deep winter ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 35 minutes ago, eduggs said: The point remains. The closer a threat, the clearer we can see its flaws. E.g, ensemble means blend and hide shortwave details that appear in closer ranges. Choosing the 2nd showcase because we don't like the look of the 1st isn't always correct. Jan 15 at one time had a very favorable "look" too. It still does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Late March spring type feel today. Love it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Late March spring type feel today. Love it. Finally a break up here with sun and mild temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what else is there to do? not analyze models? that's what we're here for I know...nothing against you. I just need to laugh because otherwise I'll cry. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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