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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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15 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Hey Tip... Happy NY... When you say "a speed surplus problem on GFS" how are you determining that?

Yeah John, happy holidays new year all that…

So velocity can be expressed a couple different ways in the atmosphere. When you have a lot of isohypses - I know you this… - nearby one another than the balanced geostrophic wind velocity is going to be fast. When the gaps between them have larger spacing than the wind slows down. Short waves need to be embedded in a balance geostrophic wind field that does not offset the wind max of the short wave passing through.

The other way velocity is expressed is the actual translation speed of the short waves through the medium … the compressed field contributes to that.  This run looks like it has both, but in particular, seeing short waves passing over South Dakota and then leaving the East Coast just 18 hours is going to create some mechanical challenges to allowing anything to amplify… The speed of the flow is keeping the long wave open (lessening the meridian character) so that can’t happen. 

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Another 1 " of fluff ..Looks like another scrape and peel with the shovel tomorrow morning.... Oh wait, we have some snow and freezing rain tomorrow night.  So we can get some variety of scraping slush.  I hate to be the debbie downer, but this length of cold with out a 12+ snow storm,  I will take a 2023-2024 winter any day of the week. 

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Anywho....here was my progression for January from last fall....doesn't look half bad.

                                                     
               January 10-13                      January 13-16                        January 18-21                                                                        
AVvXsEh2nX8zPKbph3Tkalu91o3qlgB5RLrQoHTR
Ridge Over CONUS & Southern Canada Retrogrades Towards Alaska
 
                January 23-26                       January 28-31            Early February
 
AVvXsEgVqzA-M-XEoc0WzmGctDqORi9Bn-OWR29w
               
 
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3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

funny thing is i didn't say which one....lol

Yeah, there are two prime candidates, as I recall. Might have the dates wrong, but want to say 3/13 and 3/22 roughly? We got stuck in brutal subsidence in one, the other was supposed to slam us and wound up burying Upton under a couple feet instead.

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11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

funny thing is i didn't say which one....lol

I was in Maine sledding during that March one(13th) and my mother called me cuz I had a buddy that was supposed to plow the driveway, and she called me and said she told him not to come, cuz we only got like 2-3” lol. What a flop. Out east crushed it. Ray with a 30 plus I think.  
 

And Hoth is right about that later one…that flopped too…went south lol. 

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