January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh … there’s definitely a speed surplus problem on this GFS run tho   

As this pattern turns you don’t no wanna end up compressed and velocity soaked 

Yeah it looks like we get dicked around on Sunday.

 

[FXWX]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh … there’s definitely a speed surplus problem on this GFS run tho   

As this pattern turns you don’t no wanna end up compressed and velocity soaked 

Hey Tip... Happy NY... When you say "a speed surplus problem on GFS" how are you determining that?

[DavisStraight]

Got about an inch here, still light snow.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

It’s been a very wintery winter,  just not memorable so far.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Hey Tip... Happy NY... When you say "a speed surplus problem on GFS" how are you determining that?

Yeah John, happy holidays new year all that…

So velocity can be expressed a couple different ways in the atmosphere. When you have a lot of isohypses - I know you this… - nearby one another than the balanced geostrophic wind velocity is going to be fast. When the gaps between them have larger spacing than the wind slows down. Short waves need to be embedded in a balance geostrophic wind field that does not offset the wind max of the short wave passing through.

The other way velocity is expressed is the actual translation speed of the short waves through the medium … the compressed field contributes to that.  This run looks like it has both, but in particular, seeing short waves passing over South Dakota and then leaving the East Coast just 18 hours is going to create some mechanical challenges to allowing anything to amplify… The speed of the flow is keeping the long wave open (lessening the meridian character) so that can’t happen. 

[kdxken]

They don't make them like they used to.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

They don't make them like they used to.

When we got storms 

[VivaManchVegas]

Another 1 " of fluff ..Looks like another scrape and peel with the shovel tomorrow morning.... Oh wait, we have some snow and freezing rain tomorrow night.  So we can get some variety of scraping slush.  I hate to be the debbie downer, but this length of cold with out a 12+ snow storm,  I will take a 2023-2024 winter any day of the week. 

[tavwtby]

6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

They don't make them like they used to.

we got this a week after I got my old bravada, AWD, and we went out pub crawling in it, snowing so hard at on point I had to use the glow of the street lights to navigate, we got 23" I believe in Waterbury on that one, fun times 

[Torch Tiger]

Nice 34" pack after 1/96.  I remember my Siberian husky was able to completely bury himself after that one

[Typhoon Tip]

Also by surplus” I don’t mean to imply that the model is in error with all that speed, but it could be just the same

I meant surplus in the context of it’s just not needed and unwanted if you’re a storm enthusiast cause it’s definitely interfering negatively

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

They don't make them like they used to.

Ya, They made em better after that lol. 

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

They don't make them like they used to.

 

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When we got storms 

Funny thing is people in this region would whine incessantly about the Mid-Atlantic and south getting smoked. 100%. LBSW and such. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Funny thing is people in this region would whine incessantly about the Mid-Atlantic and south getting smoked. 100%. LBSW and such. 

For sure. It as a very good storm, but We’ve had much better here since then. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Funny thing is people in this region would whine incessantly about the Mid-Atlantic and south getting smoked. 100%. LBSW and such. 

That storm wasn’t even forecast to get up in here at first.  Kept trending and trending. 

[kdxken]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, They made em better after that lol. 

2015 for sure! After that all downhill. Climate change you know.

 

[Krs4Lfe]

11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

2015 for sure! After that all downhill. Climate change you know.

 

I know it sounds funny but it probably is the reason 

[WinterWolf]

2006 was better, 2010 3 times in the mid Atlantic, 2011 twice, 2013, 2015…just to name some. 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

2015 for sure! After that all downhill. Climate change you know.

 

Once we take over Greenland and melt all of the ice we’ll have monster ridging up there every winter. 

[DavisStraight]

49 minutes ago, kdxken said:

2015 for sure! After that all downhill. Climate change you know.

 

I didnt realize we did that well 2021-2022, maybe this year we'll set a record for most dusting-1 inch storms. More like pennies with a nickel or two.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Funny thing is people in this region would whine incessantly about the Mid-Atlantic and south getting smoked. 100%. LBSW and such. 

Yea, kind of like how much of CT whines about 2015...

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty good snow growth in this band. This will do it for this C-1” event. 
 

 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

We will hold you to it. How about Boston? Sitting at 4 inches. Can we make a run at an all-time ratter. Pretty hard to beat 9.8 In 2023.

They weren’t that bad in 2023.  Futility is 1936-37 at 9” even.  2011-12 9.3”.  
 

This is from memory can’t find the old link.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, kind of like how much of CT whines about 2015...

Absolutely. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely. 

We all do it....except Will....he's a cyborg developed in the bowels of NCEP.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anywho....here was my progression for January from last fall....doesn't look half bad.

                                                     

               January 10-13                      January 13-16                        January 18-21                                                                        

Ridge Over CONUS & Southern Canada Retrogrades Towards Alaska

 

                January 23-26                       January 28-31            Early February

 

               

 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Fuck THAT storm.

funny thing is i didn't say which one....lol

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

funny thing is i didn't say which one....lol

Yeah, there are two prime candidates, as I recall. Might have the dates wrong, but want to say 3/13 and 3/22 roughly? We got stuck in brutal subsidence in one, the other was supposed to slam us and wound up burying Upton under a couple feet instead.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

funny thing is i didn't say which one....lol

I was in Maine sledding during that March one(13th) and my mother called me cuz I had a buddy that was supposed to plow the driveway, and she called me and said she told him not to come, cuz we only got like 2-3” lol. What a flop. Out east crushed it. Ray with a 30 plus I think.  
 

And Hoth is right about that later one…that flopped too…went south lol. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

We will hold you to it. How about Boston? Sitting at 4 inches. Can we make a run at an all-time ratter. Pretty hard to beat 9.8 In 2023.

Boston slightly AN. 
 

Obviously I’m just hedging and it’s mostly based off vibes ha.