January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

By February 1st or so we should have a good handle on January.

February I still feel is a lost cause, although if we delay this flip it makes it more likely February, at least maybe the first 10 days is serviceable.  There has been 1 guy consistently hyping February though since like October and thats Larry Cosgrove who has been saying 1/20-2/15 is pretty much the window for this winter and has not moved off that idea.

[NorEastermass128]

Minor roof damage and vinyl siding damage from the other day’s winds. Scheduled to be repaired on Monday. Then it can rain and snow away. Eff the wind though. Enough wind. 

[qg_omega]

To me the biggest risk of January is a failed +PNA

[Damage In Tolland]

Sundays northern stream system digging. May be enough for a fluffy inch or two 

[Ginx snewx]

Skynet 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

To me the biggest risk of January is a failed +PNA

How about negative epo ?

[Torch Tiger]

 new year

[WinterWolf]

48 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

February I still feel is a lost cause, although if we delay this flip it makes it more likely February, at least maybe the first 10 days is serviceable.  There has been 1 guy consistently hyping February though since like October and thats Larry Cosgrove who has been saying 1/20-2/15 is pretty much the window for this winter and has not moved off that idea.

That’s basically a 4 week window…and at  peak climo for SNE that Cosgrove is predicting.  He didn’t do too well last year with his ideas if I remember correctly? Or maybe I’m mistaken? 

[weathafella]

58 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

February I still feel is a lost cause, although if we delay this flip it makes it more likely February, at least maybe the first 10 days is serviceable.  There has been 1 guy consistently hyping February though since like October and thats Larry Cosgrove who has been saying 1/20-2/15 is pretty much the window for this winter and has not moved off that idea.

Lol….a big whoosh!

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

To me the biggest risk of January is a failed +PNA

Theoretically speaking, I agree....but I would be stunned if ends up solidly negative. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

February I still feel is a lost cause, although if we delay this flip it makes it more likely February, at least maybe the first 10 days is serviceable.  There has been 1 guy consistently hyping February though since like October and thats Larry Cosgrove who has been saying 1/20-2/15 is pretty much the window for this winter and has not moved off that idea.

I like early Feb...then flips warm while strat does it's thing.

[Damage In Tolland]

36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Skynet 

Where’s the torch ?

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where’s the torch ?

Being held by the Statue of Liberty 

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where’s the torch ?

I've looked at several posts from different meteorologists around the Northeast. They all say this warm up next week is temporary. They also say snow will be back in our forecast. This is normal and we should always get a warm up at some point in a winter season. Too many people are freaking out like it's the end  A winter ( and there are some that wanted to be the end and like to cause chaos  ). We just have to hang in there and it will be back.

[weatherwiz]

Hopefully because of this prolonged cold a number has been done on the tick population 

[weathafella]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where’s the torch ?

Verbatim the 54 and 49 days consecutively mid January 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Verbatim the 54 and 49 days consecutively mid January 

I thinbk those are every 6 hours...but yeah, there's plenty of warmish days in there. 46 next week and some other 40s smattered around in there

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sundays northern stream system digging. May be enough for a fluffy inch or two 

Enjoy your 0.03” water equiv

[Typhoon Tip]

It's going be interesting what these smoothed ens mean cinamas look like on or around the 7th .. 8th.

Both the EPS and GEPS 12z continued/agree in their idea of a +PNA blossoming by 270 hours, which then within just 3 or 4 days, retrogrades and/or repositions a new ridge in the EPO domain.    In fact, the GEPs is rather exotic looking.  In principle they agree on that evolution. 

The GEFs on the other hand offers a more tamed looking +PNA, which then moves and/or retrogrades into the hybrid position between the +PNA and -EPO; similar -EPO amplitude as the EPS way the hell out at the temporal horizon of fantasy range.

But, all of these movies are after the big collapse in the N Pac out there in 4 or 5 days.

[Snowcrazed71]

Here's just another forecast from another MET Ross Elliot out of Ohio.

**Weather Nerd Alert: Next Week’s Warmth Is A Warning Sign From Old Man Winter**
 
I have seen a lot of flashy headlines in the past 24 hours on social media that are either misleading or flat out wrong. Yes, we will warm up next week. No, winter isn’t over, and I would not describe what is coming as “A January Heat Wave” either as highs will be in the 40s. In fact, if you hate winter, I would not get too excited for the coming warmth. If you understand what will drive the mild pattern, then you also understand the warmth would be temporary, and it is likely a warning sign of a big arctic blast and potential for bigger winter storms. So what is going on behind the scenes?

The pattern so far this winter has generally mimicked what we have today, below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes to the Northeast, warm out west, and extremely cold in Alaska and the Yukon. Nobody up that way wants to hear, “it is Alaska, what do you expect?”. The interior of Alaska just had their coldest December in 45 years. Fairbanks hasn’t been above 0 degrees F in nearly 3 weeks. Lows have been between -40 and -50F every day for the past week. That is not normal cold up that way. Meteorologists have been closely watching this pocket of extreme cold, because when it does start to move, it will have a big impact wherever it goes. The pattern is still locked in over the next 3 days, but after that we start to see a shift east with this entire global pattern. The warmth that is out west starts moving our way, and the trough over Alaska drops into the west.

Alaska is the key to the long range forecast, and computer models move a ridge towards the state and it intensifies over the next two weeks. That would do two things. 1) It pushes the set up east. That means we get temporary warming that is in the western states, and in time that cold air in Alaska and western Canada finds a new home in the northern plains and Great Lakes, and eventually the northeast. 2) A strong ridge like what is forecast is also a blocking pattern that would stall out the weather pattern and also split the jet stream into a polar jet and a subtropic jet stream. This would increase the chance for bigger winter storms in the eastern half of the country as that pipeline of moisture would go across the Pacific, and pick up extra moisture from the Gulf. Meanwhile, the polar jet could drop into the Great Lakes bringing lots of cold. When you have this pattern, and the waves sync up, then you often get some bigger winter storms. There is no way of knowing where these storms will end up right now, but the pattern looks ideal for winter storms. At the very least, the cold looks to make a big comeback. In a nutshell, yes it will warm up next week, but be careful what you ask for as the same engine that is driving the warmth would also drive arctic cold our way after it and probably wintery precipitation mid to late January. This entire set up is connected. The screen shots below show the basic pattern as it shifts east over the next couple of weeks.

[Go Kart Mozart]

The Pivotal free site now has Euro Skynet ensembles with the continental view.  BTW, after about the 11th or so...they look tasty.

[NoCORH4L]

So how damaging do we think this mild up will be? It seems like the boundary might not get further north of the MA/NH border?

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I thinbk those are every 6 hours...but yeah, there's plenty of warmish days in there. 46 next week and some other 40s smattered around in there

But that’s not a torch . Few days of 40’s

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Enjoy your 0.03” water equiv

I bet more qpf is modeled on tomorrows runs 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But that’s not a torch . Few days of 40’s

Depends.  42 is a mini torch-8 degrees above normal but mid 40s+ during the coldest climo at bdl is a torch.  This isn’t early December.  Seasons in seasons…

[bristolri_wx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A few days in the 40’s ( if it’s even that ) ain’t a heater Ricky 

More like a knuckler or eephus…

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Depends.  42 is a mini torch-8 degrees above normal but mid 40s+ during the coldest climo at bdl is a torch.  This isn’t early December.  Seasons in seasons…

I guess I was expecting to see a ton of 50’s and 60’s based on some of the posts in here . Sure it’s a little warmer than normal, but it’s not a torch (at least on the EPS).

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Depends.  42 is a mini torch-8 degrees above normal but mid 40s+ during the coldest climo at bdl is a torch.  This isn’t early December.  Seasons in seasons…

Not to mention ( but will anyway ...), we've 'graduated' into a climate era where the so called 'torches,'  I'd argue even in the subjective sense, make 50s a lot easier to do than they were 30 years ago under the same synoptic regimes. 

Tell ya what ... if folks have an problem with that, leave the word climate out of it and just say that for whatever reason which no one knows any idea why ..whenever it warms up in winter it makes it above 55 more often than it ever used to.

Either way, if given any excuse to do so ... there's a fair probability that 40s will end up being underselling.  So Kevin, you could see 55 ... but it would be overachieving on what forecasters think is possible.  Because that's the other headache, over achieving is not ever modeled.   Yet it keeps happening.  I dunno ... I'd say you're playin with the kids college tuition if you're gamblin the temp down during the warm phase of all these changes.