January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

In the 70's and early 80's the book The Cooling was all the rage ...obviously the book got it wrong..

Not according to the academic literature of the time, but I can see how selective memory would only hold onto the predictions of cooling.

[WxWatcher007]

lol what is going on in here 

[MJOatleast7]

44 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

At some point you need to understand, this is how it goes here.  You don’t live in Labrador, or British Columbia, or the inter mountain west.  This is how SNE works. 

That's just the way it is.
 

 

[ORH_wxman]

The irony of getting into a global warming debate when we’ve been like -5 so far this winter. You’d think it would be in a +5 winter. 

[Kitz Craver]

I vividly remember Al Gore saying it was never going to snow again in New England. What a weenie.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If you want to drink the cool Aide, go ahead. It’s a bunch of crap. And that’s that. It isn’t gonna make any difference in your life or mine..at all. It’s still gonna snow. It’s still gonna get cold. And it’s still gonna rain in the winter sometimes in SNE.   Moving on…. 

I don’t think anyone said it wouldn’t get cold or snow.

You cant dismiss evidence and fact based science as crap though. The numbers are the numbers, they aren’t fake or made up. Just because you don’t like them, doesn’t make them any less real. I think it’s important to point that out.

Again, it will still snow, it will still get cold, but changes are happening.

[dendrite]

Damn I missed a CC debate with Wolfie?

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well... If giving me the Shit symbol makes you feel better... Do it again. Get it out man. Things will not stay the same forever.  

Not you....the sentiment behind the post.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2009-2011 was the lowest 2-year NAO on record 

It's amazing how warm those springs were ... Not sure if there was specific cool waves along the MAMs but I don't believe those offset the warmth enough to make them average?  interesting

[WxWatcher007]

Well if we want to talk about the weather in January…GFS brings a system to SNE 1/7.

[jbenedet]

You could not draw up a worse pattern than this. 
 

Significant cold and no big storms. 

 

Miserable unless you’re a hermit.

[dendrite]

We all know where everyone stands by this point. Debating CC and CO2 is beating a dead horse now on this subforum. We’re in the middle of winter with the potential for some action…let’s try to keep it to weather and save this talk for a rainy April day. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The irony of getting into a global warming debate when we’ve been like -5 so far this winter. You’d think it would be in a +5 winter. 

To be fair, I think a lot of people love to pull a one month cold sample and go “ see see see!!!! It’s cold” when the other 11 months in the year have generally set warm anomalies.

Somehow, sprinkling in a few below normal months cancels out the overarching warmth trend.

Not to turn this into a climate change debate, but that’s the stuff that’s going on. Ignore the wholesale change in favor of cherry picked cold anomalies 

[MJO812]

Just now, jbenedet said:

You could not draw up a worse pattern than this. 
 

Significant cold and no big storms. 

 

Miserable unless you’re a hermit.

Blame the pacific. We need to go back to the Miller As and even Miller B storms.

[jbenedet]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Well if we want to talk about the weather in January…GFS brings a system to SNE 1/7.

Warm.
 

That one is pretty well screwed. If it phases with the northern stream we’re cooked. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t think anyone said it wouldn’t get cold or snow.

You cant dismiss evidence and fact based science as crap though. The numbers are the numbers, they aren’t fake or made up. Just because you don’t like them, doesn’t make them any less real. I think it’s important to point that out.

Again, it will still snow, it will still get cold, but changes are happening.

I can dismiss whatever data and science you throw at me because that’s my right. Believe what you want to believe and I will do the same. Viva la America…

[butterfish55]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

To be fair, I think a lot of people love to pull a one month cold sample and go “ see see see!!!! It’s cold” when the other 11 months in the year have generally set warm anomalies.

Somehow, sprinkling in a few below normal months cancels out the overarching warmth trend.

Not to turn this into a climate change debate, but that’s the stuff that’s going on. Ignore the wholesale change in favor of cherry picked cold anomalies 

Well said Bret.

I think these debates are helpful to let us know who calls it "Gulf of America" and who doesn't

[MJO812]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Warm.
 

That one is pretty well screwed. If it phases with the northern stream we’re cooked. 

Its a week away. The models have been trash in the mid to long range.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2009-2011 was the lowest 2-year NAO on record 

Right...near the solar min....seasons that average negative NAO in the mean have been declining in frequency, but the time to get them is ascending solar near solar min.

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its a week away. The models have been trash in the mid to long range.

 

sure. Buts it’s crap odds at this stage. Low end advisory or a big cutter if it phases.

 

It has the hallmarks of another big cutter. 

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The irony of getting into a global warming debate when we’ve been like -5 so far this winter. You’d think it would be in a +5 winter. 

Ha...     it could show progress, actually.  Like even the populace is getting their minds around the notion that GW is as much about huge variance ( to wit, 'cold' is part of that), as it is the actual warming itself.   There's a compendium of reasons you and I know that the general population doesn't really have to - just that they know the variances are bigger. 

That all said... I don't think it represents progress in this case.  LOL  

Maybe what it represents is when this particular etho-chamber social media nears apoplexy over the fact that it doesn't seem to matter what index says this, or pattern says that... or Met extols the virtues of their own brilliance ... blah blah.   'Where's the fucking 7 contoured hornet parked on near Block Island!!'   One raging a battle against a 1040 mb high pressure over Moose Turd Ontario wouldn't hurt. haha.  Have it followed by a trough that offers another toke off the blue-light (internet chart) pipe after, too....  all that.   \

So frustrated that we're willing to through GW into the reasons?

[jbenedet]

Looking more and more like a week-ish of suffering through dry and significant cold to a warm up and cutters. 
 

Then we evaluate if the warmup is an interlude or a new pattern…

[jbenedet]

I’d sell my house in a heartbeat if the current pattern was the norm around here. Trash.

 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You could not draw up a worse pattern than this. 
 

Significant cold and no big storms. 

 

Miserable unless you’re a hermit.

You are the biggest culprit. Take all your comments ( which are almost always shitting on the pattern we are in ) and put it in the proper banter forum ). You truly bring nothing to the table other than stirring the pot. Plus, you have been wrong so many times with your " This is what the pattern is going to do ". Just don't bother posting. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This has that feeling of an old fashioned winter that we had growing up in the 70’s. The kind that started early in Nov/ early Dec and by the time you hit Morch you felt like it had been a year since you felt warmth . They used to be constantly cold like this . With no warmth in sight thru Jan.. it really has that vibe.  Hopefully the snow follows 

I like this, Kevin.    It's an honest perspective based upon real experience; nicely stated too.    

 

 

[Modfan2]

28 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You could not draw up a worse pattern than this. 
 

Significant cold and no big storms. 

 

Miserable unless you’re a hermit.

One would think at some point the cold is going to relax for a bit; when does that happen.

[Krs4Lfe]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its a week away. The models have been trash in the mid to long range.

Yesterday we were talking about how a big storm was becoming more likely in that timeframe range. Now it looks like a repeat of cold/dry and warm/wet. Nothing to be happy about in the long range. That being said, it's still quite far away, and the pattern change looks likely, but probably doesn't happen soon enough for this storm to be what we wanted it to be 

[HoarfrostHubb]

29 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Warm.
 

That one is pretty well screwed. If it phases with the northern stream we’re cooked. 

I don't see it as being warm verbatim... but it also doesn't seem particularly interesting.  

[metagraphica]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

One would think at some point the cold is going to relax for a bit; when does that happen.

Yep, I'm ready for a week of 50's. Unlike most on here I don't give a damn about the snow and cold.

[dryslot]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We all know where everyone stands by this point. Debating CC and CO2 is beating a dead horse now on this subforum. We’re in the middle of winter with the potential for some action…let’s try to keep it to weather and save this talk for a rainy April day.