January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the NESIS maps are good for general coverage idea. They are often wayyyyy too conservative in the jackpot regions. The Kocin maps in the book are much better at showing those. 

 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no idea...  

i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE.   That much is true/shown with that.  that's where it's use stops. 

 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no idea...  

i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE.   That much is true/shown with that.  that's where its use stops. 

Ours are much more accurate IMO

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-8-1996

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/6 looks decent on Euro today. Moderate 3-6 type event. 

The Euro's conflicting 1/6 with 1/8;  the latter has the larger mass-field driven amplitude signal and would be a much bigger deal without that interference. 

The only difference between this run and the 12z GGEM with it's tasty cliff hanger on D10 ( 8th ) is that the Canadian has a bigger temporal gap between them - or just enough. That allows the 8th to amplify more.  

The take away - you know this obviously ... - is that this is all fluid for now. 

[cleetussnow]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, honestly I'll leave that to y'all.   I do wonder where we are when that erstwhile 1/3 season-length resonant -WPO breaks down... I hunch there's a window of opportunity there for at least a transient +PNA.  That's obviously thus of unknown magnitude.  

You know what this reminds me of...   high A1C.    The body is swimming, in fact ...drowning is apropos, in high octane energy but it's can't use it.  It's like the hemisphere is a suffering Prediabetic.  There's no real comparative or metaphoric value to that, but it just leaps to mind because I'm bored with nothing else to do ... but it fits in with my Cosmos is just an analog engine in disguise.    I see circumstantial metaphors all the time.   Like, the AGW stuff?   classic hypertension. 

My mind has fun with circumstantial comparisons.   To much partying and the host body ends up polluted, their metrics go up..  On Earth?  Humanity's been on this harbor cruise party since 1780 and the IR  (Industrial Revolution)....  It's just that in geological time span, the metaphor takes a helluva lot longer.  In 2026...it is like 1.5 hours into the party cruise, and the wooziness is just kicking in.  We'll see if the idiot has the sense to come back to the dock, or if they end up on an O.D. OR at the ER

just havin' fun

I was thinking the exact same thing.  

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

 

Ours are much more accurate IMO

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-8-1996

Right ...cuz Tolland's in a relative min/face smack slot there so you know yours must be balls on right

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The Euro's conflicting 1/6 with 1/8;  the latter has the larger mass-field driven amplitude signal and would be a much bigger deal without that interference. 

The only difference between this run and the 12z GGEM with it's tasty cliff hanger on D10 ( 8th ) is that the Canadian has a bigger temporal gap between them - or just enough. That allows the 8th to amplify more.  

The take away - you know this obviously ... - is that this is all fluid for now. 

Yeah euro still generates a system on 1/8-1/9 but it’s a bit strung out and weak going almost due north and scraping eastern areas. It doesn’t take much mental gymnastics to see that thing being much stronger and more coherent. The PNA ridge is pretty amplified which is going to want to force a lot of energy to pile up around the base of the trough. 
 

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah euro still generates a system on 1/8-1/9 but it’s a bit strung out and weak going almost due north and scraping eastern areas. It doesn’t take much mental gymnastics to see that thing being much stronger and more coherent. The PNA ridge is pretty amplified which is going to want to force a lot of energy to pile up around the base of the trough. 
 

all three models and their ensembles have the highly anomalous block along with the Pacific trough briefly pumping the PNA... the 6-8th holds legit potential for a large coastal storm given all of the synoptic components involved 

[SnowGoose69]

Safe to say one of the GEFS or EPS/GEPS will end up badly wrong on their PNA forecasts

[Cold Miser]

What minimal medium and short range stuff that I see is showing me pretty much the same shit pattern we've been having.  Cold...(maybe a small snow event)...Rain...Repeat. Any signs that this is changing for something better for snow chances?

[Go Kart Mozart]

Actually, today's euro run reminds me of January 2015.  Really good setup but nothing came of it.  Frustration levels were at an all-time high on this forum.  Until....

 

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

What minimal medium and short range stuff that I see is showing me pretty much the same shit pattern we've been having.  Cold...(maybe a small snow event)...Rain...Repeat. Any signs that this is changing for something better for snow chances?

C’mon Garth…you’re starting to sound like somebody who lives east of you.  
 

All we can do is look at what’s being shown (which is pretty decent to say the least), and hope something comes of it.  That’s all it ever is.   And it hasn’t been a horrible December at all for a lot of places. Pretty wintry for sure.  Hang tough bro.  

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Actually, today's euro run reminds me of January 2015.  Really good setup but nothing came of it.  Frustration levels were at an all-time high on this forum.  Until....

 

Check the ensembles 

[Kitz Craver]

GFS has 4 chances for snow and a fifth being a fantasy coastal at the end of the run. Just an OP(ens look good as well)but we are gonna have plenty of opportunity. I like the look 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

GFS has 4 chances for snow and a fifth being a fantasy coastal at the end of the run. Just an OP(ens look good as well)but we are gonna have plenty of opportunity. I like the look 

Absolutely.  If nothing comes of it…just bad ju ju. Nothing you can do. But we are solidly in the game. And that’s all anybody can ask for.  We take. 

[H2Otown_WX]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely.  If nothing comes of it…just bad ju ju. Nothing you can do. But we are solidly in the game. And that’s all anybody can ask for.  We take. 

We just don't know what?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

We just don't know what?

Take the pattern lol…it’s not a bad look at all. In fact it’s pretty nice. 

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah euro still generates a system on 1/8-1/9 but it’s a bit strung out and weak going almost due north and scraping eastern areas. It doesn’t take much mental gymnastics to see that thing being much stronger and more coherent. The PNA ridge is pretty amplified which is going to want to force a lot of energy to pile up around the base of the trough. 
 

 

49 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Actually, today's euro run reminds me of January 2015.  Really good setup but nothing came of it.  Frustration levels were at an all-time high on this forum.  Until....

 

That was my thought. Potential is there. Just need the energy to consolidate.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

We just don't know what?

The WFS be initializing like…

[EastonSN+]

Gigantic block 

[SouthCoastMA]

Not really, but nice ridge out west

[MJO812]

Gfs was close

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay...I gotta clear something up - if need be... But some of you appear focused on the colors of those non-hydrostatic charts?   That peachy color over the Canadian archipelago and adjacent areas of higher latitude up there, those do not depict a block.  All those colors depict there is higher than normal heights. That's actually a non-blocked, +PNA flow, that happens to be above normal heights in all directions.  It's actually a fantastic anomaly to see that at this time of year for other reasons..   Anyway, you have to look at the geometry of the curving isohypses.

 

[FXWX]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay...I gotta clear something up - if need be... But some of you appear focused on the colors of those non-hydrostatic charts?   That peachy color over the Canadian archipelago and adjacent areas of higher latitude up there, those do not depict a block.  All those colors depict there is higher than normal heights. That's actually a non-blocked, +PNA flow, that happens to be above normal heights in all directions.  It's actually a fantastic anomaly to see that at this time of year for other reasons..   Anyway, you have to look at the geometry of the curving isohypses.

 

Good reminder to folks that it's more than the pretty colors.  While this may well evolve into a significant block, as you note, the current depiction of that upper height field does not qualify as a block; at least not yet.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Good reminder to folks that it's more than the pretty colors.  While this may well evolve into a significant block, as you note, the current depiction of that upper height field does not qualify as a block; at least not yet.

What’s so fantastic about it to see at this time of the year, that he was pointing out? 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What’s so fantastic about it to see at this time of the year, that he was pointing out? 

Think Greta

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Think Greta

Lol…thanks. 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Good reminder to folks that it's more than the pretty colors.  While this may well evolve into a significant block, as you note, the current depiction of that upper height field does not qualify as a block; at least not yet.

Wouldn’t that look provide some cross polar flow? Or am I looking at it wrong? 

[MJO812]

Cape should watch this 

[ORH_wxman]

1/6 could morph into something worth tracking if we can get it inside 6 days. The larger signal is 1/8-9 but that has a ways to go. 
 

But overall a good pattern coming up. Nice to have in early January for once. Feels like we’ve been fighting garbage patterns in early January so often over the last decade or even longer. We had a lot of good early Januarys in the 2009-2014 time frame. 
 

Since then I feel like maybe only 2018…maybe 2024 if we want to count that one threat on 1/7 but it really wasn’t a cold pattern at all. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/6 could morph into something worth tracking if we can get it inside 6 days. The larger signal is 1/8-9 but that has a ways to go. 
 

But overall a good pattern coming up. Nice to have in early January for once. Feels like we’ve been fighting garbage patterns in early January so often over the last decade or even longer. We had a lot of good early Januarys in the 2009-2014 time frame. 
 

Since then I feel like maybe only 2018…maybe 2024 if we want to count that one threat on 1/7 but it really wasn’t a cold pattern at all. 

Yea, anyone can wax poetic about they pattern all the want, I would take 1/7/2024 over anything this "great pattern" will offer up.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, anyone can wax poetic about they pattern all the want, I would take 1/7/2024 over anything this "great pattern" will offer up.

I’ll take my chances with this pattern.