Sey-Mour Snow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the NESIS maps are good for general coverage idea. They are often wayyyyy too conservative in the jackpot regions. The Kocin maps in the book are much better at showing those. 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: no idea... i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE. That much is true/shown with that. that's where it's use stops. 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: no idea... i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE. That much is true/shown with that. that's where its use stops. Ours are much more accurate IMO https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-8-1996 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1/6 looks decent on Euro today. Moderate 3-6 type event. The Euro's conflicting 1/6 with 1/8; the latter has the larger mass-field driven amplitude signal and would be a much bigger deal without that interference. The only difference between this run and the 12z GGEM with it's tasty cliff hanger on D10 ( 8th ) is that the Canadian has a bigger temporal gap between them - or just enough. That allows the 8th to amplify more. The take away - you know this obviously ... - is that this is all fluid for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, honestly I'll leave that to y'all. I do wonder where we are when that erstwhile 1/3 season-length resonant -WPO breaks down... I hunch there's a window of opportunity there for at least a transient +PNA. That's obviously thus of unknown magnitude. You know what this reminds me of... high A1C. The body is swimming, in fact ...drowning is apropos, in high octane energy but it's can't use it. It's like the hemisphere is a suffering Prediabetic. There's no real comparative or metaphoric value to that, but it just leaps to mind because I'm bored with nothing else to do ... but it fits in with my Cosmos is just an analog engine in disguise. I see circumstantial metaphors all the time. Like, the AGW stuff? classic hypertension. My mind has fun with circumstantial comparisons. To much partying and the host body ends up polluted, their metrics go up.. On Earth? Humanity's been on this harbor cruise party since 1780 and the IR (Industrial Revolution).... It's just that in geological time span, the metaphor takes a helluva lot longer. In 2026...it is like 1.5 hours into the party cruise, and the wooziness is just kicking in. We'll see if the idiot has the sense to come back to the dock, or if they end up on an O.D. OR at the ER just havin' fun I was thinking the exact same thing. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ours are much more accurate IMO https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-8-1996 Right ...cuz Tolland's in a relative min/face smack slot there so you know yours must be balls on right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The Euro's conflicting 1/6 with 1/8; the latter has the larger mass-field driven amplitude signal and would be a much bigger deal without that interference. The only difference between this run and the 12z GGEM with it's tasty cliff hanger on D10 ( 8th ) is that the Canadian has a bigger temporal gap between them - or just enough. That allows the 8th to amplify more. The take away - you know this obviously ... - is that this is all fluid for now. Yeah euro still generates a system on 1/8-1/9 but it’s a bit strung out and weak going almost due north and scraping eastern areas. It doesn’t take much mental gymnastics to see that thing being much stronger and more coherent. The PNA ridge is pretty amplified which is going to want to force a lot of energy to pile up around the base of the trough. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah euro still generates a system on 1/8-1/9 but it’s a bit strung out and weak going almost due north and scraping eastern areas. It doesn’t take much mental gymnastics to see that thing being much stronger and more coherent. The PNA ridge is pretty amplified which is going to want to force a lot of energy to pile up around the base of the trough. all three models and their ensembles have the highly anomalous block along with the Pacific trough briefly pumping the PNA... the 6-8th holds legit potential for a large coastal storm given all of the synoptic components involved 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Safe to say one of the GEFS or EPS/GEPS will end up badly wrong on their PNA forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago What minimal medium and short range stuff that I see is showing me pretty much the same shit pattern we've been having. Cold...(maybe a small snow event)...Rain...Repeat. Any signs that this is changing for something better for snow chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Actually, today's euro run reminds me of January 2015. Really good setup but nothing came of it. Frustration levels were at an all-time high on this forum. Until.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 26 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What minimal medium and short range stuff that I see is showing me pretty much the same shit pattern we've been having. Cold...(maybe a small snow event)...Rain...Repeat. Any signs that this is changing for something better for snow chances? C’mon Garth…you’re starting to sound like somebody who lives east of you. All we can do is look at what’s being shown (which is pretty decent to say the least), and hope something comes of it. That’s all it ever is. And it hasn’t been a horrible December at all for a lot of places. Pretty wintry for sure. Hang tough bro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Actually, today's euro run reminds me of January 2015. Really good setup but nothing came of it. Frustration levels were at an all-time high on this forum. Until.... Check the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GFS has 4 chances for snow and a fifth being a fantasy coastal at the end of the run. Just an OP(ens look good as well)but we are gonna have plenty of opportunity. I like the look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: GFS has 4 chances for snow and a fifth being a fantasy coastal at the end of the run. Just an OP(ens look good as well)but we are gonna have plenty of opportunity. I like the look Absolutely. If nothing comes of it…just bad ju ju. Nothing you can do. But we are solidly in the game. And that’s all anybody can ask for. We take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Absolutely. If nothing comes of it…just bad ju ju. Nothing you can do. But we are solidly in the game. And that’s all anybody can ask for. We take. We just don't know what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said: We just don't know what? Take the pattern lol…it’s not a bad look at all. In fact it’s pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah euro still generates a system on 1/8-1/9 but it’s a bit strung out and weak going almost due north and scraping eastern areas. It doesn’t take much mental gymnastics to see that thing being much stronger and more coherent. The PNA ridge is pretty amplified which is going to want to force a lot of energy to pile up around the base of the trough. 49 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Actually, today's euro run reminds me of January 2015. Really good setup but nothing came of it. Frustration levels were at an all-time high on this forum. Until.... That was my thought. Potential is there. Just need the energy to consolidate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: We just don't know what? The WFS be initializing like… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 10 minutes ago Share Posted 10 minutes ago Gigantic block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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