January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the NESIS maps are good for general coverage idea. They are often wayyyyy too conservative in the jackpot regions. The Kocin maps in the book are much better at showing those. 

 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no idea...  

i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE.   That much is true/shown with that.  that's where it's use stops. 

 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no idea...  

i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE.   That much is true/shown with that.  that's where its use stops. 

Ours are much more accurate IMO

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-8-1996

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/6 looks decent on Euro today. Moderate 3-6 type event. 

The Euro's conflicting 1/6 with 1/8;  the latter has the larger mass-field driven amplitude signal and would be a much bigger deal without that interference. 

The only difference between this run and the 12z GGEM with it's tasty cliff hanger on D10 ( 8th ) is that the Canadian has a bigger temporal gap between them - or just enough. That allows the 8th to amplify more.  

The take away - you know this obviously ... - is that this is all fluid for now. 

[cleetussnow]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, honestly I'll leave that to y'all.   I do wonder where we are when that erstwhile 1/3 season-length resonant -WPO breaks down... I hunch there's a window of opportunity there for at least a transient +PNA.  That's obviously thus of unknown magnitude.  

You know what this reminds me of...   high A1C.    The body is swimming, in fact ...drowning is apropos, in high octane energy but it's can't use it.  It's like the hemisphere is a suffering Prediabetic.  There's no real comparative or metaphoric value to that, but it just leaps to mind because I'm bored with nothing else to do ... but it fits in with my Cosmos is just an analog engine in disguise.    I see circumstantial metaphors all the time.   Like, the AGW stuff?   classic hypertension. 

My mind has fun with circumstantial comparisons.   To much partying and the host body ends up polluted, their metrics go up..  On Earth?  Humanity's been on this harbor cruise party since 1780 and the IR  (Industrial Revolution)....  It's just that in geological time span, the metaphor takes a helluva lot longer.  In 2026...it is like 1.5 hours into the party cruise, and the wooziness is just kicking in.  We'll see if the idiot has the sense to come back to the dock, or if they end up on an O.D. OR at the ER

just havin' fun

I was thinking the exact same thing.  

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

 

Ours are much more accurate IMO

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-8-1996

Right ...cuz Tolland's in a relative min/face smack slot there so you know yours must be balls on right

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The Euro's conflicting 1/6 with 1/8;  the latter has the larger mass-field driven amplitude signal and would be a much bigger deal without that interference. 

The only difference between this run and the 12z GGEM with it's tasty cliff hanger on D10 ( 8th ) is that the Canadian has a bigger temporal gap between them - or just enough. That allows the 8th to amplify more.  

The take away - you know this obviously ... - is that this is all fluid for now. 

Yeah euro still generates a system on 1/8-1/9 but it’s a bit strung out and weak going almost due north and scraping eastern areas. It doesn’t take much mental gymnastics to see that thing being much stronger and more coherent. The PNA ridge is pretty amplified which is going to want to force a lot of energy to pile up around the base of the trough. 
 

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah euro still generates a system on 1/8-1/9 but it’s a bit strung out and weak going almost due north and scraping eastern areas. It doesn’t take much mental gymnastics to see that thing being much stronger and more coherent. The PNA ridge is pretty amplified which is going to want to force a lot of energy to pile up around the base of the trough. 
 

all three models and their ensembles have the highly anomalous block along with the Pacific trough briefly pumping the PNA... the 6-8th holds legit potential for a large coastal storm given all of the synoptic components involved 

[SnowGoose69]

Safe to say one of the GEFS or EPS/GEPS will end up badly wrong on their PNA forecasts

[Cold Miser]

What minimal medium and short range stuff that I see is showing me pretty much the same shit pattern we've been having.  Cold...(maybe a small snow event)...Rain...Repeat. Any signs that this is changing for something better for snow chances?

[Go Kart Mozart]

Actually, today's euro run reminds me of January 2015.  Really good setup but nothing came of it.  Frustration levels were at an all-time high on this forum.  Until....

 

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

What minimal medium and short range stuff that I see is showing me pretty much the same shit pattern we've been having.  Cold...(maybe a small snow event)...Rain...Repeat. Any signs that this is changing for something better for snow chances?

C’mon Garth…you’re starting to sound like somebody who lives east of you.  
 

All we can do is look at what’s being shown (which is pretty decent to say the least), and hope something comes of it.  That’s all it ever is.   And it hasn’t been a horrible December at all for a lot of places. Pretty wintry for sure.  Hang tough bro.  

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Actually, today's euro run reminds me of January 2015.  Really good setup but nothing came of it.  Frustration levels were at an all-time high on this forum.  Until....

 

Check the ensembles