January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs likes the 31st thru the 2nd

really excited about the block breakdown storm

[Snowlover11]

For shits and giggles this is the gfs for both storms

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

For shits and giggles this is the gfs for both storms

 

[winterwx21]

30 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

really excited about the block breakdown storm

It sure is nice seeing you act like us for a change instead of all the trolling with claims that you root against winter. It's obvious that you really love winter lol. 

[SnoSki14]

54 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

really excited about the block breakdown storm

I smell a biggie on the horizon. 

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

really excited about the block breakdown storm

Even more so than this weekend’s

storm?

[doncat]

8° here this am...lowest so far, lots more to come!

[donsutherland1]

For those tracking snow cover, New York City has had the most days with 1" or above snow cover since Winter 2017-2018 through January 20th.

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 35 here 34 degree swing (so far)

[nycwinter]

a few weeks back all the doom about january was overblown.

[Dark Star]

23 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

a few weeks back all the doom about january was overblown.

Completely unwarranted.  Trolls...

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Up to 35 here 34 degree swing (so far)

From 3 to 34 here. Really looking forward to tomorrow's 50F

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Its still 30 degrees here,haven't cracked freezing as of 3pm. Also some snow is possible later,nickle n diming to the big one this weekend. 

[eduggs]

Radar shows an impressive line of reflectivity associated with a warm front from KY to SPA pointed straight at us. HRRR says it all dries up before reaching the ground, but I'm still hoping to sneak a few flurries or maybe even a dusting out of it.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with highs reaching or surpassing 40°. However, the mild temperatures will be shortlived. An even colder Arctic front will cross the region on Thursday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. A frigid weekend lies ahead. 

Snow could arrive on Sunday. A significant snowfall is possible in and around the New York City area and surrounding region, even if a transition to sleet could occur at some point during the storm. The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. There remains uncertainty and it may still be another day or two before the details can be pinned down with high confidence.

The temperature will likely stay below 20° in New York City and much of the region on Saturday. The last time that happened in New York City was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. 

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +7.54 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.334 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.7° (3.0° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[SI Mailman]

Damn clouds rolled in right before sunset. Was counting on the extra 15 minutes of twilight

[Nibor]

Flurries in JC. 

[NorthShoreWx]

Temperature got up to 34 briefly during the day before falling back below freezing, but it's been warming since sunset and is now up to 37.6 with snow flurries.

[ForestHillWx]

Flurries at the office in Berkeley Heights and came home to a trace on the patio. 

[Snowlover11]

High of 30F. Snowpack holding strong. Although tomorrow’s 40F will likely destroy it.

[psv88]

39 now

[Prue11]

40 and clouds. 30 degree difference 24 hours ago 

[bluewave]

It’s interesting how our coldest low temperatures during the 2010s and 2020s were during our warmest winters. The early February 2023 cold was in a sea of warm.

Same story with the only below 0° in NYC since 1994 during the 2015-2016 winter. It’s funny that the back to back cold winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 couldn’t produce a below 0° reading in NYC. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb lowest temperatures
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-2026	16	38
2024-2025	10	0
2023-2024	17	0
2022-2023	3	0
2021-2022	10	0
2020-2021	14	0
2019-2020	14	0
2018-2019	2	0
2017-2018	5	0
2016-2017	14	0
2015-2016	-1	0
2014-2015	2	0
2013-2014	4	0

 

Monthly Data for February 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	CARMEL 4N	COOP	-10
CT	OXFORD WATERBURY	WBAN	-9
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-7
CT	GROTON	COOP	-6
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	-6
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	-5
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-5
CT	GUILFORD	COOP	-5
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	-4
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-4
NY	MATTITUCK	COOP	-4
CT	GROTON NEW LONDON AP	WBAN	-4
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-4
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-3
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	-3
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	-3
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-2
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	-2
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	-1
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	0
NY	BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	0
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	0
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	0
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	1
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	1
NY	SYOSSET	COOP	2
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	2
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	3
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	3
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	3

 

Monthly Data for February 2016 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	CARMEL 4N	COOP	-13
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	-12
CT	SAUGATUCK RESERVOIR	COOP	-10
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	-10
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-10
CT	ANSONIA 1 NW	COOP	-9
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	-9
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	-9
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-9
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-8
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	-8
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	-8
CT	GROTON NEW LONDON AP	WBAN	-8
CT	GROTON	COOP	-8
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	-8
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-7
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-7
CT	TRUMBULL	COOP	-7
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	-6
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-6
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	-5
NY	MATTITUCK	COOP	-5
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	-5
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	-5
NY	BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	-4
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	-3
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	-3
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	-3
CT	PUTNAM LAKE	COOP	-3
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	-3
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	-2
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	-2
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	-2
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	-2
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	-1
NY	WEST NYACK	COOP	-1
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	-1
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	-1
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	0
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	0
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	0
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	0
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	0

[SACRUS]

39 / 22 - did get to 41 at some point overnight.  Wamrest day of the next 9 or through the 31st.  Overall cold and a few much below avg days 1/24-1/25 and again 1/28-1/30. The much discussed 1/25 - 1/26 storm which is looking like a floor of 6 and ceiling of 12 -14 for the area pending on mixing.  Euro swapped coastals in the 1/31 - 2/2 range.  Some moderation into the 2/3 and beyond.

 

[LoboLeader1]

39 currently here, yesterday at this time it was 11. Headed up to western MA tomorrow, going to do some skiing on Saturday. NWS posted this:

EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. Temps around 5 here in the Berks.

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 62 (1954)
NYC: 61 (1959)
LGA: 57 (1973)
JFK: 55 (1973)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1984)
NYC: 0 (1888)
LGA: 5 (2005)
JFK: 6 (2005)

Historical:

1781: Great coastal storm sweeps New York/New England coasts. Several men-of-war sunk, causing problems for the British war effort. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1893: The minimum temperature for the date is +1°F. in Washington, D.C. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1904: An unusual estimated F4 tornado leveled the northern part of Moundville, Alabama, just after midnight, killing 37 people. The tornado reportedly had a phosphorescent glow. An engineer on a northbound Great Southern train saw the destruction right after it occurred and backed his train 12 miles in reverse to the town of Akron, where he sent a telegram for help.


1927: The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 76°F. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA)


1930: Illinois recorded its coldest temperature ever at Mt. Carroll (-35F). The reading would be tied during the winter of 1995-96, when the temperature plummeted to -35F at Elizabeth, IL. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1936: One of the coldest windchill the Twin Cities has ever seen was -67 on this day with the new windchill formula (-87 with the old formula). The temperature was -34 with a wind speed of 20mph. All traffic in the Twin Cities was severely hampered and a number offatalities were caused by the cold. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

1937: Low of 9 degrees above zero in Las Vegas froze many pipes. Schools had trouble keeping warm, and coal was in short supply in the city. January 1937 was the coldest month on record for Las Vegas, with an average temperature of 31.2 degrees, 17.5 degrees below normal.

1940: Four days of lake effect snow squalls came to an end at Watertown, NY where 69 inches fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1943 - Chinook winds during the early morning hours caused the temperature at Spearfish SD to rise from 4 below zero to 45 above in just two minutes, the most dramatic temperature rise in world weather records. An hour and a half later the mercury plunged from 54 above to 4 below zero in twenty-seven minutes. (David Ludlum)

1948: On this date through the 26th, the longest period of snowfall on record occurred in downtown Denver, CO at 92 hours and 3 minutes as 13.6 inches fell. At the former Stapleton Airport, 19 inches of snow fell making it the heaviest snow in January. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1961: Coventry, CT had a minimum temperature of -32 °F today and the record for CT is -37 °F on 2-16-1943 (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States)(Extreme Weather p. 54, by Christopher C. Burt)

1982: Minneapolis had two great snow storms in succession: 17.1 inches of snow fell on the 20th and 19.9 inches on the 22nd and 23rd; these produce new 24 hours single storm records. Also 38 inches of snow depth on the ground and 44 inches total depth for the month, set all-time records. (David Ludlum, p.9)
Boulder, CO recorded a wind gust to an incredible 150 mph!  (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Very cold maximum 29° Minimum was -2° at Bren Mar Weather Station near west Alexandria, VA (Annandale Weather Records)


1984: Arctic high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic brought extreme cold. All-Time record lows were tied or set at: Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: -18°, Baltimore, MD: -7°-Tied (2/9/1924 & 2/10/1899), Islip, NY: -7°-Tied and Bridgeport, CT: -7°-Tied. Locations that reported January record lows included: Concord, NH: -33°, Wilmington, DE: -14°-Tied and Philadelphia, PA: -7°-Tied. Locations that reported daily record lows included: Caribou, ME: -27°, Elkins, WV: -23°, Charleston, WV: -10°, Harrisburg, PA: -9°, Roanoke, VA: 2°,Wallops Island, VA: 9 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985: The Virginia Minimum Temperature Record was -30°F at Mt. Lake Biology Station near Blacksburg, VA(Ref.Extreme Weather p. 54, by Christopher C. Burt)
Jan 20-22, An arctic cold front swept across the state ushering in extreme cold and high winds. Wind chill temperatures plunged well below zero. Winds knocked out power compounding the effects of the cold. Pipes froze and burst. Fresh snow of 4 inches with the front helped temperatures across the entire state fall below zero. New records were set at several locations in the south including Roanoke with -11°F and Norfolk with -3°F. Cable television lines were damaged by shrinkage caused by the extreme cold. Click this link to see a Map of the lowest minimum temperatures for each state.
On January 22, Mountain Lake recorded the coldest temperature ever in Virginia ( -30 °F). (Ref. Virginia Wx. History) (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)
 

1987 - A winter storm spread snow from central Mississippi through northern Georgia to New England. Up to 15 inches of snow fell across the heavily populated areas of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. Traffic tie-ups nearly paralyzed the Washington D.C. area. Winds gusted to 76 mph at Chatham MA, and in Pennsylvania, snowfall totals ranged up to 21 inches at Dushore. Williamsport PA received five inches of snow in just one hour. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - The nation was free of winter storms for a day, however, winds in southern California gusted to 80 mph in the Grapevine area of the Tehachapi Mountains, and winds along the eastern slopes of the Rockies reached 100 mph in the Upper Yellowstone Valley of Montana. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure brought heavy rain and gale force winds to Florida. Daytona Beach was drenched with 5.48 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a January record for that location, and winds at Titusville FL gusted to 63 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - It was a very tame and peaceful mid winter day. Mild weather prevailed across the nation, with rain and snow primarily confined to the northeastern U.S. and the Pacific Northwest. Warm weather continued in Florida. Highs of 83 degrees at Hollywood and 85 degrees at Miami were records for the date. (National Weather Summary)

1994: Arctic outbreak continues as DC records a record 4 consecutive days with lows below 10° January 18-21 (2 °F, -4 °F, 8 °F, 3 °F) (Bob Ryan's 2000 Almanac)

1997: A major snowstorm hit northern California, dumping snow at the rate of two inches per hour on the Sierra Mountains. A six foot snowdrift trapped Amtrak's California Zephyr in Donner Pass, much like a similar storm had done in January 1952. Fortunately, the AMTRAK train was freed after just a few hours, not three days like the 1952 event. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1999: Amazingly only 5 hurt when an 880-yd-wide F3 tornado caused severe damage to a 5 block area of downtown Clarksville, TN. (The FEMA Director noted, " It’s like someone dropped a bomb on it. "). $72 million damage to commercial/residential structures by 4:15 a.m. storm. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)
 

2000 - A severe ice storm hit northern Georgia and portions of northwest South Carolina on January 22-23. Over half a million utility customers were without power during and after the storm, with the Atlanta area severely affected.

2005 - A major winter snowstorm, referred to as the Blizzard of 2005, affected the Northeastern United States. More than one foot of snow covered much of southern New England in the storm's aftermath, with well over two feet in some areas of Massachusetts. Strong winds created blizzard conditions with low visibilities and considerable blowing and drifting of snow. (NCDC)

2014: The third snowest winter on record in Chicago to date. (Januaru 22, 2014) (Ref.Frank Wachowski, NWS Archivesand WGN-TV Chicago, IL)

2016: January 21-23. A historic storm dumped heavy snow from the Ohio Valley to New England, including two feet or more from West Virginia to New York City, crippling transportation. The storm was blamed for 58 deaths and economic costs exceeding $1 billion. This was the most severe snowstorm to affect the Northeast since 1996 based on snowfall amounts and area covered. The last GFS Model run before the storm had 59.5 inches of snow in the forecast some of the highest number I have seen in forecast models. Also the Canadian model and the RGEM models showed tremendous snowfalls of the East Coast before the storm. The snow started at 1005 hours at Glen Allen as extremely small flakes but with in one hour the yard was getting white. At 1800 with 5.7 inches of snow at Glen Allen the snow started to change over into sleet which would continue for 9.5 hours.
The last GFS Model run before the storm (Ref.NWS)

[SACRUS]

Sunsets after 5:00 for the first time since Nov 1st today.  We;ve gained 32 mins of total daylight from the solstice 

 

Sunrise slowly earlier at 7:14AM / Sunset : 5:02 PM

[[email protected]]

18 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Sunsets after 5:00 for the first time since Nov 1st today.  We;ve gained 32 mins of total daylight from the solstice 

NYC noon sun angle is officially 30 degrees as of tomorrow. We are now gaining 2 to 3 tenths of noon sun angle degree, now. 

Sunrise slowly earlier at 7:14AM / Sunset : 5:02 PM

[donsutherland1]

Setting aside specific snowfall amounts, the 1/22 0z NBM showed a snow-liquid ratio of 16.6 for New York City while the 1/22 12z NBM showed 14.1. With an estimated 1.00" or more QPF ( 12z NBM), the actual ratios will be lower. Moreover, the impact of a closed 700 mb low over the Great Lakes Region will also bring about some warming aloft, likely leading to a mix or change to sleet in New York City and its nearby suburbs.

Some statistics for storms with QPF of 1.00" or more:

During the height of the storm, peak ratios will probably be 11:1-13:1. Soundings will be crucial once the event draws closer. Assuming 0.50"-0.75" of liquid during that period, one is probably talking about 5.5" to almost 10" of snow. Thus, it seems right now that a 6"+ snowfall in New York City is a good bet with higher amounts possible. Areas to the north and west of NYC (Morristown, Allentown, Middletown, etc.) could have higher snowfall amounts (better ratios and reduced risk of mixing) despite somewhat lower QPF figures.

The 12z NAM's soundings could provide some early insight into the push of warm air. That's one area where the model actually does quite well.

[MANDA]

Temperatures across Alberta Province of Canada this morning are running -20 to -40F.  Temperatures either side of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba are -20 to -25F.  Impressive cold!