January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs likes the 31st thru the 2nd

really excited about the block breakdown storm

[Snowlover11]

For shits and giggles this is the gfs for both storms

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

For shits and giggles this is the gfs for both storms

 

[winterwx21]

30 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

really excited about the block breakdown storm

It sure is nice seeing you act like us for a change instead of all the trolling with claims that you root against winter. It's obvious that you really love winter lol. 

[SnoSki14]

54 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

really excited about the block breakdown storm

I smell a biggie on the horizon. 

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

really excited about the block breakdown storm

Even more so than this weekend’s

storm?

[doncat]

8° here this am...lowest so far, lots more to come!

[donsutherland1]

For those tracking snow cover, New York City has had the most days with 1" or above snow cover since Winter 2017-2018 through January 20th.

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 35 here 34 degree swing (so far)

[nycwinter]

a few weeks back all the doom about january was overblown.

[Dark Star]

23 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

a few weeks back all the doom about january was overblown.

Completely unwarranted.  Trolls...

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Up to 35 here 34 degree swing (so far)

From 3 to 34 here. Really looking forward to tomorrow's 50F

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Its still 30 degrees here,haven't cracked freezing as of 3pm. Also some snow is possible later,nickle n diming to the big one this weekend. 

[eduggs]

Radar shows an impressive line of reflectivity associated with a warm front from KY to SPA pointed straight at us. HRRR says it all dries up before reaching the ground, but I'm still hoping to sneak a few flurries or maybe even a dusting out of it.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with highs reaching or surpassing 40°. However, the mild temperatures will be shortlived. An even colder Arctic front will cross the region on Thursday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. A frigid weekend lies ahead. 

Snow could arrive on Sunday. A significant snowfall is possible in and around the New York City area and surrounding region, even if a transition to sleet could occur at some point during the storm. The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. There remains uncertainty and it may still be another day or two before the details can be pinned down with high confidence.

The temperature will likely stay below 20° in New York City and much of the region on Saturday. The last time that happened in New York City was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. 

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +7.54 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.334 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.7° (3.0° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.