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First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season


Baroclinic Zone
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32 minutes ago, Hoth said:

This is one of those times I’m glad I’m at the CT shoreline. No question about the precipitation mode here and no need to pull my remaining hair out over each model run. Good luck to all up north! 

That's half the fun, especially when it surprises in your favor.

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Just now, FXWX said:

Low confidence for your area... could be sharp gradient across short distances???  I would not give up hope yet for low-end warning levels?

hope is fading fast my friend, hopefully the cold tonight can overcome whatever may try to push in tomorrow during the event... hours from go, and still unknowns are more than knowns, at least here and borderline areas.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah that was mostly one Met talking to another.  

It's clear outside, with a DP of like 19.  We're likely getting quite cold in the lowest levels because of that.  That's possibly not being assessed properly wherein the poorly resolved lowest levels that the models can have trouble. 

It's a slam dunk for a positive bust, but this strikes me as a potential to end up marginally colder - particularly with the storm structurally evolving and moving underneath our latitude. 

I'm not sure where you reside but for like Springfield to Ayer ...that band I suspect it safely snow in this... It's really more of a contention as to where the mix line ends up... I think there's room for it to be S of consensus in this case.   

Thank you thank you, based on what you just wrote, my locale (West Concord just off rt. 2) may very well be right on the r/s line.

btw as an aside, is it better for cold air retention if upper levels close off in this case?

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You realize…if you pick up 2-4” tomorrow, these posts of yours will look pretty bad.  Just saying.  It’s getting cold out there bro. 

If I thought that was even remotely possible I’d have some optimism. I was really looking forward to this and the first snowfall . It’s been a long time since a good December .  This could have started off well . South flow is no bueno . Will erode any cold very quickly aloft . Here anyway .. maybe your area will do better . It’s green grass around here for the foreseeable future 

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12 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

hope is fading fast my friend, hopefully the cold tonight can overcome whatever may try to push in tomorrow during the event... hours from go, and still unknowns are more than knowns, at least here and borderline areas.

Crazy things known to happen in Lit Cty... lol

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So your saying the south flow will be 15 to 25 mph like Sunday not the 5 to 10 modeled which then  backs N for you. Surprise surprise surprise Gomer.

I am speaking for this area . I know how it works in this set up . I admittedly had some hope over the weekend that I could still manage a few inches with white landscape . But I started sensing what was happening yesterday . It’s going to be a rough one personally for this to be a Rainer and look at grass . Will have to live vicariously thru the folks pictures and posts to the N, NW , and NE.

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In the still of the night I hear Wolfie howl, Kev-y
Sniffing around your door
In the still of the night I  see the GFS snowing heavy
Telling me you’ll get 2-4
In the shadow of night I see the Euro rising
Telling me what's in store
My weenie start aching, the models start a shaking
And it won’t snow any more 
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