December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Prestige Worldwide]

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2000645576275231015?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A
The Bam view is clear 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

bam bam bam

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

We can't even do shit the blinds patterns properly anymore 

I know your were being sarcastic, but definitely not a shit the blinds pattern. Not an extremely favorable pattern, but definitely workable.

[SnowenOutThere]

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know your were being sarcastic, but definitely not a shit the blinds pattern. Not an extremely favorable pattern, but definitely workable.

Tbh I think it might be my proudest joke I've made on the forum. Though I'm not sure I ever really bought into the full doom and gloom we had in here for a little bit. I know its bad practice to use the OP runs but aside from a couple days they never really showed a horrific setup. It always seemed like last year(s) when the ensembles showed a great pattern and the OPs were meh to downright bad the ens ended up adjusting to that reality. I do wonder if there is some science behind the possibility of OP runs aiding in pattern change analysis or if its just confirmation bias. 

[stormy]

As cloudiness has prevailed this afternoon, a non initialized warm front is evident.

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Torch is gone for the northeast 

 

[BristowWx]

43 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

 

It’s either gonna be toasty or chilly on Xmas. Every GFS run oscillates between that at this range.  I could see C Va at 70 and N Va at 45 with this set up.  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

As cloudiness has prevailed this afternoon, a non initialized warm front is evident.

 

What do you mean by "non-initialized warm front", exactly?

[aldie 22]

28 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s either gonna be toasty or chilly on Xmas. Every GFS run oscillates between that at this range.  I could see C Va at 70 and N Va at 45 with this set up.  

I was thinking 71 and 46 but that's just me

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Tbh I think it might be my proudest joke I've made on the forum. Though I'm not sure I ever really bought into the full doom and gloom we had in here for a little bit. I know its bad practice to use the OP runs but aside from a couple days they never really showed a horrific setup. It always seemed like last year(s) when the ensembles showed a great pattern and the OPs were meh to downright bad the ens ended up adjusting to that reality. I do wonder if there is some science behind the possibility of OP runs aiding in pattern change analysis or if its just confirmation bias. 

Ops have most definitely led the way picking up on flips at times but it's pretty logical. Beyond 5 days, ops are about as accurate as a single ensemble member. They basically are a single ensemble member. There are times when ops consistently diverge from the mean long range pattern and its the first sign of a change.

Works both ways though. Sometimes ops consistently diverge from the mean at long range only to cave in that direction (for better or worse lol). That said, it always grabs my attention when ops keep spitting out a cold pattern in the lr when ensembles are grim. It can be the first sign of a flip that isn't showing on the means. You can take it a step further and sort through individual ensembles and see how big the camp is that agrees with the op and see if that camp starts growing over time. Gives more confidence to the idea. Make sense?

[winter_warlock]

9 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I was thinking 71 and 46 but that's just me

I was thinking 69 and 44 lol

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No. Wrong BAM.

 

[CAPE]

37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What do you mean by "non-initialized warm front", exactly?

lol why ask? Sometimes you need to consider the source and just move on.

[SnowenOutThere]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol why ask? Sometimes you need to consider the source and just move on.

Its like trying to analyze something from the JMA

[WxUSAF]

 

[bncho]

I doubt this is the end for December, especially on the tracking side of things. EPS and GEFS have around an inch of snow for most of the area (mean, not median) for the remainder of the month.

[baltosquid]

I still am intrigued by the 22-23 period even though the GFS op lost the little event it had at 12z. This feature leading in sliding off NE is getting better for such an event, improving the mid level flow over us for something sneaky:


 

Temps by the 23rd are getting better as well:

 

Precip for 22nd into the 23rd, not as strong of a trend but at the very least the GEFS is not screaming "dry."

The ingredients aren't just on the GEFS but I am too lazy to get GIFs for all of them given pivotal's beta GIF creator is borked so I can't do off hour stuff for the euro and... it's a lot of work to invest in when it probably isn't gonna happen!

 

For now I think I just want to see things trend colder for Sat/Sun. Easy to pick out the mid level trends for that, and it's the first requirement to meet for this to at all be possible.

 

[bncho]

13 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

I still am intrigued by the 22-23 period even though the GFS op lost the little event it had at 12z. This feature leading in sliding off NE is getting better for such an event, improving the mid level flow over us for something sneaky:


 

Temps by the 23rd are getting betting as well:

 

Precip for 22nd into the 23rd, not as strong of a trend but at the very least the GEFS is not screaming "dry."

The ingredients aren't just on the GEFS but I am too lazy to get GIFs for all of them given pivotal's beta GIF creator is borked so I can't do off hour stuff for the euro and... it's a lot of work to invest in when it probably isn't gonna happen!

 

For now I think I just want to see things trend colder for Sat/Sun. Easy to pick out the mid level trends for that, and it's the first requirement to meet for this to at all be possible.

 

i saw 22-23 and that scared the shit out of me

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

lol why ask? Sometimes you need to consider the source and just move on.

I think what he means is a northwesterly flow turning more west-northwesterly aloft with winds turning southwesterly and overriding the cold air at the surface.  Oh, and we are on the far southwestern edge of the cold air that is slowly being eroded from the west in time. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Christmas on the 0z GFS