December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hard to hate the start so far too.

Even low elevation woods are ok… we’ll see in a couple days though, haha.

 

You hate to see good starts get cleaned out only to start over again, I think it was 20-21 back where we were off to a good December with 16.1" here then the grinch appeared and the rest of that winter was mediocre with 29.5". 

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks nice around the 3rd

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

People pay $5/mo to have the euro regurgitated?

He actually went against the EURO in favor of the GFS last week.

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You hate to see good starts get cleaned out only to start over again, I think it was 20-21 back where we were off to a good December with 16.1" here then the grinch appeared and the rest of that winter was mediocre with 29.5". 

Yeah we can take the 36 hour thaws but need to avoid a 72-hr bloodbath with 1”+ rain.

[CoastalWx]

Can see on the 12z EPS what a little bit more ridging does into nrn Greenland. Keeps the confluence going in SE Canada. I’d like to see that going forward.

[FXWX]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can see on the 12z EPS what a little bit more ridging does into nrn Greenland. Keeps the confluence going in SE Canada. I’d like to see that going forward.

That's going to be the issue as this pattern unfolds during December.  Degree of old loading into southeast Canada will be critical.  Too much assist from -NAO and we get suppression; too little and SNE gets screwed by warming, but ice potential increases?  But if we get modest confluence locked in by weak to moderate -NAO and it could be a solid December; especially NOP!  I would keep expectations low right now, but it's an active look with decent potential.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

That's going to be the issue as this pattern unfolds during December.  Degree of old loading into southeast Canada will be critical.  Too much assist from -NAO and we get suppression; too little and SNE gets screwed by warming, but ice potential increases?  But if we get modest confluence locked in by weak to moderate -NAO and it could be a solid December; especially NOP!  I would keep expectations low right now, but it's an active look with decent potential.

That’s how I feel. I’m optimistic, but I can’t help but to always look to see what can go wrong. It’s probably some PTSD lol, but it’s been the reality last few years. 
2025 has been the most challenging for me. I could use a good winter stretch.

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s how I feel. I’m optimistic, but I can’t help but to always look to see what can go wrong. It’s probably some PTSD lol, but it’s been the reality last few years. 
2025 has been the most challenging for me. I could use a good winter stretch.

8 years since the last above average season here. 1 Average season and 6 below average since. so sick of this sh*t..I'll take average or slightly above at this point

[FXWX]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s how I feel. I’m optimistic, but I can’t help but to always look to see what can go wrong. It’s probably some PTSD lol, but it’s been the reality last few years. 
2025 has been the most challenging for me. I could use a good winter stretch.

Agree... You can't be blamed for being gun shy... Lots of screw jobs over the past few years.  That being said, I think optimism is warranted... Since we will be dealing with mainly SWFEs, it would be nice to get some secondary, even weak, lows running out under SNE?  I am certainly going to stay conservative, especially SOP, in the short term.  Would love to see the pattern morp into one favoring coastal as we move into the heart of the winter; very late Dec onward.  For now, Midwest track favored with SWFE causing our main action... Missing out on early December snows doesn't really bother me; I'm just looking for favorable pattern trends.  Liking fact 40/70 is bullish in general.