December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm sure they will have a top notch cooling system that is going to be cranking (can't even imagine the cost) but I have to think there will be some issues with the ice. 

If there was a concern they wouldn’t be attempting it. They’ll have that ice surface plenty cold.

[CoastalWx]

EPS isn’t pretty either. I mean something eventually has to go right?

[Typhoon Tip]

late 25th thru mid 27th is an icing pattern.

didn't appear y'all mentioned it?  If not, that's a stalled polar boundary with duration over running.  1020 +PP situated N of the boundary pushing E while gaining some as it goes + climo =  ice event written all over it.    

Like Will said, ...talk to us when we're within a week.  Tru.  But, the idea of some sort of a mixy potentials in that time frame is still there in principle. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS isn’t pretty either. I mean something eventually has to go right?

-NAO to the rescue or does it link with a SE ridge? Surface warm anomalies still in the Central US.. Generally looks seasonable with average precip during the holiday week, will need luck on our side though I think 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS isn’t pretty either. I mean something eventually has to go right?

Is winter over ?

[WinterWolf]

Go with Ai…they had the general idea right with this last one…from 8 plus days out. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

-NAO to the rescue or does it link with a SE ridge? Surface warm anomalies still in the Central US.. Generally looks seasonable with average precip during the holiday week, will need luck on our side though I think 

That trough position on the Canadian coast is usual not good here. We’ll need the blocking for sure or else the CONUS Chinook reaches here. 
 

FWIW AI Ensembles looked better vs EPS. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, FXWX said:

Yes, but it was a hell of a 30 year run!

H Sapiens almost didn't make it.  A lot of money was riding on Neanderthal for a while... 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That trough position on the Canadian coast is usual not good here. We’ll need the blocking for sure or else the CONUS Chinook reaches here. 
 

FWIW AI Ensembles looked better vs EPS. 

 

Pretty strong East based block showing up on GEFS and EPS in the 10-15, AIFS and GEPS much less of a signal

[Krs4Lfe]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Pretty strong East based block showing up on GEFS and EPS in the 10-15, AIFS and GEPS much less of a signal

At some point, the storminess along west US and west Canada would force that ridge to roll over. In the northeast, we will have mainly seasonal temps for rest of the month, but the torch over central US is very impressive. Reminiscent of Dec 2023 and Dec 2021. Just mild and warm for much of the nation. Both of the following januarys got pretty active after those months, but nothing really crazy over here in terms of snow and cold

[Snowcrazed71]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Is winter over ?

Lol .. no it's just starting. Everybody so laser focused on Christmas and what the weather's bringing. Thinking winter's over. Lord!!! I really feel there'll be a lot more happy people by the time we get to March. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Pretty strong East based block showing up on GEFS and EPS in the 10-15, AIFS and GEPS much less of a signal

I was eyeballing pivotal for the EPS AIFS and it seemed to cut the warmth off better vs EPS. Is there a 10-15 day of those from Weatherbell?

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

 I really feel there'll be a lot more happy people by the time we get to March. 

We can’t get there fast enough.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was eyeballing pivotal for the EPS AIFS and it seemed to cut the warmth off better vs EPS. Is there a 10-15 day of those from Weatherbell?

 

[CoastalWx]

A little better confluence there. 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We can’t get there fast enough.

I think people drive themselves crazy so early that they burn themselves out. So basically what you're saying is just get rid of January and February because they're not going to count now. My suggestion is anybody who feels like it's over should just stop posting. Makes no sense to keep posting crap if you're done with the season already lol. Why is it the same thing every year. I just don't get why people agonize over stupid shyte

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think people drive themselves crazy so early that they burn themselves out. So basically what you're saying is just get rid of January and February because they're not going to count now. My suggestion is anybody who feels like it's over should just stop posting. Makes no sense to keep posting crap if you're done with the season already lol. Why is it the same thing every year. I just don't get why people agonize over stupid shyte

The white Christmas theme is baked into us. But really is there any scene more beautiful than Christmas Lights with fresh fallen snow

Those of us old old weenies know winter just began in SNE this week.  So much time left.  The Patriots fans declaring victory up 21 to 0 are our winter over peeps.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

With this ridge centered over Florida they may be playing the outdoor classic on a pond. It will be a water polo match instead of a hockey match

The refrigerant under the ice will be fine no matter the ambient air temp.

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think people drive themselves crazy so early that they burn themselves out. So basically what you're saying is just get rid of January and February because they're not going to count now. My suggestion is anybody who feels like it's over should just stop posting. Makes no sense to keep posting crap if you're done with the season already lol. Why is it the same thing every year. I just don't get why people agonize over stupid shyte

Sometimes the writing is on the wall (last year), but we’re in a different position this year. We have to get lucky, but we’re at least in the game for something next week. Like Steve said, we’re wired to want a white Christmas. 

We could be in the Midwest with absolutely no hope. 

[dendrite]

29 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think people drive themselves crazy so early that they burn themselves out. So basically what you're saying is just get rid of January and February because they're not going to count now. My suggestion is anybody who feels like it's over should just stop posting. Makes no sense to keep posting crap if you're done with the season already lol. Why is it the same thing every year. I just don't get why people agonize over stupid shyte

Beer?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pattern update.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/mid-month-warm-up-arrives-on-schedule.html

[SnowGoose69]

37 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think people drive themselves crazy so early that they burn themselves out. So basically what you're saying is just get rid of January and February because they're not going to count now. My suggestion is anybody who feels like it's over should just stop posting. Makes no sense to keep posting crap if you're done with the season already lol. Why is it the same thing every year. I just don't get why people agonize over stupid shyte

As long as Canada stays cold this flips quickly if the PNA goes positive if the other indices largely remain where they are.  If somehow though we get a week or 2 of a GOA vortex we're probably done til 1/20 at least.  No signs of that though

[CoastalWx]

Friday could rip especially in ern areas. You’ll have some daytime heating ahead of rain 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Friday could rip especially in ern areas. You’ll have some daytime heating ahead of rain 

yeah eastern areas def have greatest potential to get temperatures well into the 50's and some stronger wind...perhaps even some convection too

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Friday could rip especially in ern areas. You’ll have some daytime heating ahead of rain 

EOR 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Beer?

Logic... not a favorite theme here at times 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pattern update.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/mid-month-warm-up-arrives-on-schedule.html

the Pope laughs at your forecast, your blog spot, and of course, at you. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

A little better confluence there. 

Let’s hope the weeklies are wrong. They basically furnace us the entire month of January, lol. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s hope the weeklies are wrong. They basically furnace us the entire month of January, lol. 

I know. Ugly.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s hope the weeklies are wrong. They basically furnace us the entire month of January, lol. 

They seem to think we're in an El Nino