December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Anyone else sick of the cold already?

Haha.... right. 

For me, it's what I call "non-representative cold" that's annoying.    This is non-representative when it's just cold.  Yeah, one gets sick of that. And it actually doesn't take long to get to that opinion.  Like, a one failure to represent and up!  I'm ready for February's annual 10th exit of the solar minimum and hearing about Ray's canonical warm bum on his car seat.    

heh.  just kidding   Cold is a necessary evil if we want to have interesting winter Meteorology though.  So long as the latter is a part of the cold, no issues. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 yo

yeah not sure yet.  It may be a last minute thing.  I have a huge family.  Not sure if I've ever exposed this but I have 9 sisters and they all have demands of one another's time - including their sole bro.  Since, truth be told, there are only 7 still living, that's like a political urgency to be ... anyway, there's a thing tomorrow - not sure how long.  There's some conflict there.

 I have 4 and thought that was a lot.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He is very nasty and is usually worse in the mornings. 

Severe constipation? That would explain a lot

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

 I have 4 and thought that was a lot.

yeah.. I've often mused that, 'hey man, I was raised in the Feminati'   when seeking defense in discussions with militant lesbians 

 

[UnitedWx]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m surprisingly enjoying the cold.  It feels like a throwback to my youth including waiting for the snow.   We’re near the 65 year anniversary of one of the great 20th century blizzards that buried Virginia to Maine.

Now I'm going to have to look that one up, 10 years before my time. We all know Will was there

[dryslot]

54 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Anyone else sick of the cold already?

NO!

[kazimirkai]

The extended GEFS seems to be picking up on this secondary SSW signal with the some winter in early January (mainly around the 4th-12th in today's run). I think there could def be some chances for snow in interior NE and especially mountains before that though (evidenced by snowfall on the 384hr ensemble suite). The central ridge seems to relax more westward following Christmas. 

[MJO812]

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me

You can get huge cutters in a gradient pattern. It will be very hard to avoid one. It’s possible but unlikely. The gradient also sets up decently north…so it’s gonna get milder and milder relative to normal once you’re getting south of NNE. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can get huge cutters in a gradient pattern. It will be very hard to avoid one. It’s possible but unlikely. The gradient also sets up decently north…so it’s gonna get milder and milder relative to normal once you’re getting south of NNE. 

Agree

Northern areas should continue to do well .

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me

The NYC metro area is going to warm up. We are not New England

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Now I'm going to have to look that one up, 10 years before my time. We all know Will was there

It was epic!  I was in the 8th grade in NNJ and woke up Sunday 12/11 with “provisional heavy snow warning”.  That was the precursor to today’s winter storm watch.  But more importantly after a mega torch in the early days of December culminating in temperatures near 70 on 12/4.  It was in the mid 40s on the 10th so imagine my surprise (and joy) to awaken to high clouds and 25.  My mother made me sweep the garage that morning and for once I happily complied as I warded off the oak leaves blowing into the north facing garage.  By the time I was done the temperature dropped into the low 20s.   My Giants were playing Washington in DC and at the start of the broadcast the announcer exclaimed “we’re having a blizzard!”   I remember one TD pass from YA Tittle to Del Shofner with Shofner ending up in a snow bank.   
 

It started snowing around 3pm and it was fairly light for the first 6 hours and I was starting to lose hope.   Finally it started picking up and by time I fell asleep it was snowing pretty hard.  I woke up at 5AM Monday and it was raging.  Snow tapered off close to Noon.  Temperatures during the meat of the storm were near 10.  The storm paralyzed the megopolis.  It was the first of 3 big ones that winter. The other 2 were the JFK inaugural storm and the widespread 2 footer February 3-4.   The February storm was the pattern changer and winter was never the same that year but what a 2 month run!

[Lava Rock]

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Northern areas should continue to do well .

Meaning PF will be making snow angels in 2' of sn out on the picnic tables

[tamarack]

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It was epic!  I was in the 8th grade in NNJ and woke up Sunday 12/11 with “provisional heavy snow warning”.  That was the precursor to today’s winter storm watch.  But more importantly after a mega torch in the early days of December culminating in temperatures near 70 on 12/4.  It was in the mid 40s on the 10th so imagine my surprise (and joy) to awaken to high clouds and 25.  My mother made me sweep the garage that morning and for once I happily complied as I warded off the oak leaves blowing into the north facing garage.  By the time I was done the temperature dropped into the low 20s.   My Giants were playing Washington in DC and at the start of the broadcast the announcer exclaimed “we’re having a blizzard!”   I remember one TD pass from YA Tittle to Del Shofner with Shofner ending up in a snow bank.   
 

It started snowing around 3pm and it was fairly light for the first 6 hours and I was starting to lose hope.   Finally it started picking up and by time I fell asleep it was snowing pretty hard.  I woke up at 5AM Monday and it was raging.  Snow tapered off close to Noon.  Temperatures during the meat of the storm were near 10.  The storm paralyzed the megopolis.  It was the first of 3 big ones that winter. The other 2 were the JFK inaugural storm and the widespread 2 footer February 3-4.   The February storm was the pattern changer and winter was never the same that year but what a 2 month run!

That winter was the best I've experienced, though 83-84 in Fort Kent is close.  After watching the Wash/NY follies in the snow, we had light snow that began to intensify about bedtime.  Woke up to low teens, S+ and 15"+. finishing with 18.  Friend and I slogged thru the powder for a couple hours without seeing anything (NJ's firearms deer season opener) and headed toward home.  There was my dad standing over a nice little buck about 250 yards from the house.  He then schooled me on field dressing the critter - my first snotty thought, fortunately not spoken, was "Why can't he gut his own deer."  Eight years later when I finally dropped a deer, I was very thankful.

The JFK inaugural blizzard dumped 20" with temps about 10, followed by 2 weeks of cold (NYC's 16 consecutive subfreezing maxima is easily its longest) with small snowfalls, then the strongest of them all.  I called it 24" but nearby sites were closer to 30 - impossible to get a firm depth in the howling wind.  Pack climbed to about 45" (up to 52" in NW NJ) but the cold was gone.  Had a 12" paste bomb on 3/23 to cap the season.

60-61 ended the most wonderful 5 years of big snows:  24" on 3/19-20/56; 18" on 2/15-16/58; 24" paste on 3/20-21/58; 18" on 3/3-4/60.   Other than the Magnificent Seven, my NJ career of snow watching (1950-Jan 1973) had only one definite 18", 2/9-10/69, and 3 in the 15-18 range - 1/12-13/64, 12/24-25/66 (first thundersnow) and 2/7/67.

[radarman]

Such a great start to the skating season.  Folks already on the CT river Oxbow as of yesterday.  Almost every pond in play out here.  Only drawback is some were already frozen when the snow came on 12/2.  

I looked through the records and we're colder than 12/05 and 12/77 to date.  Maybe 12/89 beats it.  That might be it. Impressive.

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like a weak clipper on Tuesday on the Euro and some of the other models. 

[Typhoon Tip]

crippling ice storm

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, radarman said:

Such a great start to the skating season.  Folks already on the CT river Oxbow as of yesterday.  Almost every pond in play out here.  Only drawback is some were already frozen when the snow came on 12/2.  

I looked through the records and we're colder than 12/05 and 12/77 to date.  Maybe 12/89 beats it.  That might be it. Impressive.

All small ponds here totally frozen over. Charles river in Dover was frozen on the way to work today. I wonder if it’s starting to freeze near back bay. That would be extra impressive.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks like a weak clipper on Tuesday on the Euro and some of the other models. 

Yeah could be a C-1” deal. Wish we’d get a 2-4” clipper for once. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah could be a C-1” deal. Wish we’d get a 2-4” clipper for once. 

Isn’t it 50’s Wed/ Thurs

[ariof]

9 minutes ago, radarman said:

Such a great start to the skating season.  Folks already on the CT river Oxbow as of yesterday.  Almost every pond in play out here.  Only drawback is some were already frozen when the snow came on 12/2.  

I looked through the records and we're colder than 12/05 and 12/77 to date.  Maybe 12/89 beats it.  That might be it. Impressive.

The first 10 days of the month at KBOS are 38.5 / 24 / 31.3, and that's underselling since there were a couple of days which with "highs" in the 30s which occurred just after or before midnight. Coldest start to the month since 2007.

[ariof]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

All small ponds here totally frozen over. Charles river in Dover was frozen on the way to work today. I wonder if it’s starting to freeze near back bay. That would be extra impressive.

It's [looks out window] still liquid downstream of the BU Bridge but was frozen upstream where it's narrower/shallower/less windy at least before the brief warmup/light rain (I haven't been across it in that area since). Probably too much thermal mass and wind to freeze that over without a couple of cool, calm nights, although the wind is probably cooling it nicely. I think the last time it froze in Boston in December was late 2017, but then melted out once that cold snap abated a few weeks later ("abated" being a nice way of saying "2 inches of rain at 60°"). The all-timer was 2015, of course, when it froze in early Jan and melted out on something like April 3.

[wx2fish]

Next week is probably a loss, but theres still some chance for atleast some overrunning leading up to Christmas. Nice little system christmas eve on the euro and deep cold christmas day.

[Spaizzo]

Anyone else sick of the cold already?

Only when it goes away and we rain lol


.

[Typhoon Tip]

12z Euro's Currier&Ives

[metagraphica]

15 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Next week is probably a loss, but theres still some chance for atleast some overrunning leading up to Christmas. Nice little system christmas eve on the euro and deep cold christmas day.

Unless the GFS happens for Xmas instead.

 

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Next week is probably a loss, but theres still some chance for atleast some overrunning leading up to Christmas. Nice little system christmas eve on the euro and deep cold christmas day.

Yeah 12z euro gives most of New England a nice event on Xmas eve (maybe starting overnight 12/23)…high end advisory and then frigid Xmas day. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah 12z euro gives most of New England a nice event on Xmas eve (maybe starting overnight 12/23)…high end advisory and then frigid Xmas day. 

AI Euro has an event in that timeframe too, looks marginal temp wise though until you get to CNE

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Isn’t it 50’s Wed/ Thurs

Probably assuming the cutter is real. Still some disagreement but I’d be shocked if we didn’t get at least one very mild day. 
 

Sunday’s event is just for aesthetics for a few days…we’re gonna need something in the 12/22-12/25 range to get the White Xmas…and it’s possible we could get that…ensembles have been coming around to the idea of overrunning/SWFE potential when looking at the H5 anomalies heading into Christmas Eve. 
 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably assuming the cutter is real. Still some disagreement but I’d be shocked if we didn’t get at least one very mild day. 
 

Sunday’s event is just for aesthetics for a few days…we’re gonna need something in the 12/22-12/25 range to get the White Xmas…and it’s possible we could get that…ensembles have been coming around to the idea of overrunning/SWFE potential when looking at the H5 anomalies heading into Christmas Eve. 
 

 

Maybe a similar deal to Dec 01 except 50 miles southeast with rain/ snow line