December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[ineedsnow]

21 minutes ago, FXWX said:

 

Probably late to the news but didn't know Polar Wx added new AI-GFS; GraphCast - GFS model, and the NOAA version goes operational Dec. 17th... Its 18z run looks similar to Euro products for Sunday... 

Link below...

https://t.co/ckQkMydRHT

do you happen to know if they come out quick.. or do you have to wait a bit..? they even have the off hour Euro runs.. 

[klw]

4.0 new so far here as of around 8:30

[brooklynwx99]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

mid level magic probably from Kevin to ORH over to Boston.

yeah, these love to amp up the fluff factor with sloped 700-500mb FGEN on the NW side of the precip shield. that would likely verify 4-6” along that corridor

[FXWX]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

do you happen to know if they come out quick.. or do you have to wait a bit..? they even have the off hour Euro runs.. 

 I think the 18z was ready early this evening   Will be interesting to see how quickly Ncep releases it starting on 17th?

[FlashFreeze]

32° and light snow in Hartland, roads are slush covered, looks like maybe an 8th to a quarter of an inch of snow so far.

[moneypitmike]

Just got back in from walking the dog......I had thought the roads would have been better than they were earlier.  They were actually much worse  Probably because the rain had let  up so it was freezing more quickly.  Almost went down twice.  Even the dog was stepping cautiously--not one of her strong suits! 

35* zr-

 

EDIT:  from what I've experienced here and the earlier post that was about the sidewalks in PWM, I'm surprised they don't have any type of SPS up along the coast.

[MJO812]

Nam is pretty amped 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is pretty amped 

yup snowy

[Torch Tiger]

Lfg

[backedgeapproaching]

Nice shot of snow for the SVT resorts. 

9.2" so far at home. Residual light stuff still going.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Nice shot of snow for the SVT resorts. 

9.2" so far at home. Residual light stuff still going.

 

 

Classic west slope VT storm. That west and southwest flow does great there. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

as we close in on 14th ... just be leery of the NAM NW bias/amplitude issues beyond 36 hours

 

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is pretty amped 

 

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

yup snowy

 

[George001]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s definitely nice to see a solid euro run, however, the gfs and icon along with the gefs being a whiff should give everyone pause, especially given what we’ve seen in this flow 

Yeah I’d like to see the gfs start moving towards the Euro and Canadian tonight and tomorrow

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Nice shot of snow for the SVT resorts. 

9.2" so far at home. Residual light stuff still going.

 

 

Congrats, that's awesome. 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Classic west slope VT storm. That west and southwest flow does great there. 

First time I've had an underperformer here. Still learning the climo here. 

[George001]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is pretty amped 

Yeah, big snows for northern areas. 

[NW_of_GYX]

3.25” wrapping up now but still light snow, stayed snow the whole event. 

[NW_of_GYX]

The new RRFS handled the temps well with this. Be interesting to see how that model performs this season in places that see frequent marginal setups 

[Typhoon Tip]

that is an amped solution  no doubt 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Icon suddenly blows this thing up, but to Far offshore. I’d definitely consider it a step towards the more impactful models though 

[WinterWolf]

When we say amped…are we just meaning it’s further N and W. Or do we also mean it’s more intense as well? 

[weathafella]

I’ve been bullish on this since last night.  I went to bed happy last night though not for the reason I’d have felt happy 40 years ago….

Also, I’ve been harping about the AI models and how imho they should be weighed highest.  They self upgrade continuously and they’ve been around now long intro be taken quite seriously.   Once I saw all the AIs on board I bought in.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’ve been bullish on this since last night.  I went to bed happy last night though not for the reason I’d have felt happy 40 years ago….

Also, I’ve been harping about the AI models and how imho they should be weighed highest.  They self upgrade continuously and they’ve been around now long intro be taken quite seriously.   Once I saw all the AIs on board o bought in.

If this works out…huge win for them imo. And as you said, it won’t be very long before they surpass the normal models completely. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I’m leery of NAM’s fairly dependable NW bias with cyclogen near east coastal ….however that’s tendency. There are circumstances when that can be a good thing - particularly when there’s very intense llv thermal gradient along a steep frontal slope …elevating into increasing diffluence above. 

Dec 2005 is an example of that and superior resolution winning the model debate. Not an analog per se… But the higher resolved resolution might find the low level instability axis closer to that gradient, helping to generate intense UVM in that vicinity under which the cyclone generates

[Typhoon Tip]

Tough situation because the euro and the nam are not impossible while on the other hand, the background circumstantial synoptics really support the GFS solution. 

I’m leaning away from previous GFS total flat solutions. Whole system is kind of weak though so should a compromise take place that is still not good enough. In order to be more than just snow in the air we probably would need a NAM solution to be more correct out right

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs better

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs better

Marginally so. At least it’s not worse. Needs a good amount of work though 

[Typhoon Tip]

I could see a NAM low developing and maybe clipping southern southeastern zones as it’s blowing up going out - NW bias notwithstanding. But then we fill back in with radar with inverted trough of some sort because… that’s a very deep polar core coming down at mid/upper levels that’s gonna generate a ton of instability, even in this cold air

[MJO812]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Marginally so. At least it’s not worse. Needs a good amount of work though 

Plenty of time 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Marginally so. At least it’s not worse. Needs a good amount of work though 

Looks pretty significant at 500 though. 

[brooklynwx99]

yeah, GFS made a material shift towards a euro-like solution, though i have a feeling that the euro’s overamplification bias may be showing