December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[radarman]

Years ago this would be an easy toss of the GFS for Sunday

Nowadays.... still toss the GFS 

[ariof]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Christmas miracle 

And that's after the GFS backed way off the torch cutter from its 12Z. At 12Z it was 55 in BOS and 40 all the way up to YQB. Now it's 45 in BOS and keeps NNE in the low 30s through the event. It does bring the non-snow area into the 60s on the 23rd (happy Festivus) though. Those with snowpack would keep it setting the stage for this. I could live with the 18Z GFS (the 12Z was less enticing) but would love to suppress/CAD the 23rd a bit.

[Snowcrazed71]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Christmas miracle 

Looks pretty. Not biting yet.

I'll tell you who will be biting.... Some of the Facebook hype Masters.

[dryslot]

18z Euro looks good.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looks better than 12z

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks better than 12z

yeah, vort really trying to buckle here

[butterfish55]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Looks pretty. Not biting yet.

I'll tell you who will be biting.... Some of the Facebook hype Masters.

"Christmas is cancelled!!"

"Christmas Blizzard incoming!!!!!! (If GFS is right)"

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, butterfish55 said:

"Christmas is cancelled!!"

"Christmas Blizzard incoming!!!!!! (If GFS is right)"

 

6 hours ago, paulythegun said:

 

[ORH_wxman]

Far SE areas look like they try to catch the developing CCB. That would prob be some violence on the Cape…esp if it can pop quickly as that vort catches up to sfc. 

[brooklynwx99]

could tell it was going to be more amped around here. PNA is better and heights are lower farther SW

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Far SE areas look like they try to catch the developing CCB. That would prob be some violence on the Cape…esp if it can pop quickly as that vort catches up to sfc. 

For Sunday?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

could tell it was going to be more amped around here. PNA is better and heights are lower farther SW

Yeah if you dig those heights on the southwest side, it will help that TPV lobe to drop into the void and pump up downstream heights to get the moisture transport northwest over land. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

For Sunday?

Yeah…the low just escapes east before the real fun, but something to watch. Still a lot of good fronto on that run so SE areas would still prob get low end warning snows or close to it on 18z euro. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if you dig those heights on the southwest side, it will help that TPV lobe to drop into the void and pump up downstream heights to get the moisture transport northwest over land. 

personally i’m wondering if there’s an inflection point where things blow up. 18z euro was teetering, honestly. we’ve been trending that way for a while model cycle now 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally i’m wondering if there’s an inflection point where things blow up. 18z euro was teetering, honestly. we’ve been trending that way for a while model cycle now 

I think if you drop that another 50-100 miles west/southwest then you’re starting to give this enough room to tilt shortwave negative. That’s where you’d get this from a general 3-6/4-8 type event into double digits where a true CCB circulation can start rapidly developing. 
 

But at this point, I’m still leery of the whiff east. I don’t like how progressive the flow starts looking behind it so that’s always a worry. But if we can get guidance to trend solidly at 00z, then I’d start thinking a bigger solution isn’t merely a fantasy. 

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks better than 12z

The trend is nice…Euro catching on?  Or is GFS right? 

[Snowcrazed71]

Does it look to bring an advisory event to SNE at least?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think if you drop that another 50-100 miles west/southwest then you’re starting to give this enough room to tilt shortwave negative. That’s where you’d get this from a general 3-6/4-8 type event into double digits where a true CCB circulation can start rapidly developing. 
 

But at this point, I’m still leery of the whiff east. I don’t like how progressive the flow starts looking behind it so that’s always a worry. But if we can get guidance to trend solidly at 00z, then I’d start thinking a bigger solution isn’t merely a fantasy. 

Well earlier today, we were told that this had to be 300 miles SW.  50-100 miles isn’t a huge lift at 90 plus hrs out imo. If one little aspect isn’t being modeled correctly now(disturbances just coming into range, or will be overnight), 50-100 miles is very manageable.  

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Does it look to bring an advisory event to SNE at least?

Yeah most of SNE is prob advisory that run outside of far NW areas maybe….then you maybe get into low end warning in SE areas. Way too early to worry about amounts though. We can’t even get guidance to agree on if a system will even hit us. 

[moneypitmike]

Nice temp spike--suddenly up to 42.

 

 

 

 

[dryslot]

26/25°F, 0.50" of snow before the flip to FRZRN.

[George001]

The windshield wiper effect is strong with this one. We are only 4 days out and I have no idea what is going to happen. We just don’t know……

[ineedsnow]

starting to flip over to snow here

[Typhoon Tip]

as we close in on 14th ... just be leery of the NAM NW bias/amplitude issues beyond 36 hours

[dendrite]

26.7° -SN/SN

Up to 1.8”

Decent rates and growth

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah most of SNE is prob advisory that run outside of far NW areas maybe….then you maybe get into low end warning in SE areas. Way too early to worry about amounts though. We can’t even get guidance to agree on if a system will even hit us. 

I think this is reasonable, but could see higher.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The trend is nice…Euro catching on?  Or is GFS right? 

We don't know yet.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s definitely nice to see a solid euro run, however, the gfs and icon along with the gefs being a whiff should give everyone pause, especially given what we’ve seen in this flow 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s definitely nice to see a solid euro run, however, the gfs and icon along with the gefs being a whiff should give everyone pause, especially given what we’ve seen in this flow 

the GEFS is just going to do what the GFS does at this range 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS is just going to do what the GFS does at this range 

That’s always seemed more like an ec/eps tendency in the near range to me than a gfs/gefs…unless it’s changed in the past year.