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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hard to hate the start so far too.

Even low elevation woods are ok… we’ll see in a couple days though, haha.

IMG_5949.thumb.jpeg.5c9f499dda3a48a64bfa9ff14adff845.jpeg

 

You hate to see good starts get cleaned out only to start over again, I think it was 20-21 back where we were off to a good December with 16.1" here then the grinch appeared and the rest of that winter was mediocre with 29.5". 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You hate to see good starts get cleaned out only to start over again, I think it was 20-21 back where we were off to a good December with 16.1" here then the grinch appeared and the rest of that winter was mediocre with 29.5". 

Yeah we can take the 36 hour thaws but need to avoid a 72-hr bloodbath with 1”+ rain.

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can see on the 12z EPS what a little bit more ridging does into nrn Greenland. Keeps the confluence going in SE Canada. I’d like to see that going forward.

That's going to be the issue as this pattern unfolds during December.  Degree of old loading into southeast Canada will be critical.  Too much assist from -NAO and we get suppression; too little and SNE gets screwed by warming, but ice potential increases?  But if we get modest confluence locked in by weak to moderate -NAO and it could be a solid December; especially NOP!  I would keep expectations low right now, but it's an active look with decent potential.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

That's going to be the issue as this pattern unfolds during December.  Degree of old loading into southeast Canada will be critical.  Too much assist from -NAO and we get suppression; too little and SNE gets screwed by warming, but ice potential increases?  But if we get modest confluence locked in by weak to moderate -NAO and it could be a solid December; especially NOP!  I would keep expectations low right now, but it's an active look with decent potential.

That’s how I feel. I’m optimistic, but I can’t help but to always look to see what can go wrong. It’s probably some PTSD lol, but it’s been the reality last few years. 
2025 has been the most challenging for me. I could use a good winter stretch.

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s how I feel. I’m optimistic, but I can’t help but to always look to see what can go wrong. It’s probably some PTSD lol, but it’s been the reality last few years. 
2025 has been the most challenging for me. I could use a good winter stretch.

8 years since the last above average season here. 1 Average season and 6 below average since. so sick of this sh*t..I'll take average or slightly above at this point

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s how I feel. I’m optimistic, but I can’t help but to always look to see what can go wrong. It’s probably some PTSD lol, but it’s been the reality last few years. 
2025 has been the most challenging for me. I could use a good winter stretch.

Agree... You can't be blamed for being gun shy... Lots of screw jobs over the past few years.  That being said, I think optimism is warranted... Since we will be dealing with mainly SWFEs, it would be nice to get some secondary, even weak, lows running out under SNE?  I am certainly going to stay conservative, especially SOP, in the short term.  Would love to see the pattern morp into one favoring coastal as we move into the heart of the winter; very late Dec onward.  For now, Midwest track favored with SWFE causing our main action... Missing out on early December snows doesn't really bother me; I'm just looking for favorable pattern trends.  Liking fact 40/70 is bullish in general.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Agree... You can't be blamed for being gun shy... Lots of screw jobs over the past few years.  That being said, I think optimism is warranted... Since we will be dealing with mainly SWFEs, it would be nice to get some secondary, even weak, lows running out under SNE?  I am certainly going to stay conservative, especially SOP, in the short term.  Would love to see the pattern morp into one favoring coastal as we move into the heart of the winter; very late Dec onward.  For now, Midwest track favored with SWFE causing our main action... Missing out on early December snows doesn't really bother me; I'm just looking for favorable pattern trends.  Liking fact 40/70 is bullish in general.

Ray puts a shit ton of effort into those outlooks. Probably better than most established Mets doing long range louooks. 

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Christmas eve seems to always have a cutter and you can set your watch to it.  

I had nearly 2’ on the ground Xmas Eve of 2020. Completely wiped out by Christmas morning. now that was a screamer. I think @backedgeapproaching had the best images of it. by best I mean the most depressing.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I had nearly 2’ on the ground Xmas Eve of 2020. Completely wiped out by Christmas morning. now that was a screamer. I think @backedgeapproaching had the best images of it. by best I mean the most depressing.

Worst cutter I’ve ever had. Even dendrite got wiped clean after having feet on the ground and his area is CAD-central. It was like a southerly mild gale all the up to Quebec City. 
 

My previous worst had been 1996. We had so much snow OTG (and dense) from the double barrel storms earlier that month and an epic 60F+ screamer wiped it all out. But 2020 was worse. It was more snow and the melt happened even faster. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I had nearly 2’ on the ground Xmas Eve of 2020. Completely wiped out by Christmas morning. now that was a screamer. I think @backedgeapproaching had the best images of it. by best I mean the most depressing.

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Worst cutter I’ve ever had. Even dendrite got wiped clean after having feet on the ground and his area is CAD-central. It was like a southerly mild gale all the up to Quebec City. 
 

My previous worst had been 1996. We had so much snow OTG (and dense) from the double barrel storms earlier that month and an epic 60F+ screamer wiped it all out. But 2020 was worse. It was more snow and the melt happened even faster. 

I call it King Grinch for a reason. That was as bad as you can get. 

Just getting back to CT for the holiday. Good trends today on the models. Hopefully we can all cash in and roll into a good December overall. I think we all want three things:

1) A good start to met winter with at least an advisory event or two

2) No Grinch preceding Christmas 

3) Hope for a solid pattern at short range on the models New Year’s Eve 

We’ll see how many of those we get. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Worst cutter I’ve ever had. Even dendrite got wiped clean after having feet on the ground and his area is CAD-central. It was like a southerly mild gale all the up to Quebec City. 
 

My previous worst had been 1996. We had so much snow OTG (and dense) from the double barrel storms earlier that month and an epic 60F+ screamer wiped it all out. But 2020 was worse. It was more snow and the melt happened even faster. 

34” on 12/17 went puff. This was 1pm xmas day. 
image.jpeg

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Worst cutter I’ve ever had. Even dendrite got wiped clean after having feet on the ground and his area is CAD-central. It was like a southerly mild gale all the up to Quebec City. 
 

My previous worst had been 1996. We had so much snow OTG (and dense) from the double barrel storms earlier that month and an epic 60F+ screamer wiped it all out. But 2020 was worse. It was more snow and the melt happened even faster. 

Both of those went to bed with feet (melting) and awoke to green. At least 96 caused extensive wind damage. I can accept a little easier with big wind damage 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Both of those went to bed with feet (melting) and awoke to green. At least 96 caused extensive wind damage. I can accept a little easier with big wind damage 

There was meat in the snow in 96. That took two cutters to wipe out. 
 

First cutter had wild winds. So much for the snow pack causing less mixing. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There was meat in the snow in 96. That took two cutters to wipe out. 
 

First cutter had wild winds. So much for the snow pack causing less mixing. 

That first one was insane . I was living in Vernon still pre marriage . The gusts in that thing were unreal . 60-70mph I think that was the autumn we had that big screamer in November too with 60-70mph. Or was that 93-94?Those two screamers are to this day why I get so excited for screamers . I know they can happen 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

And that’s what I was meaning last week about wire to wire…as great as 95-96 was(and it was awesome here..still holds the record), if you melt out completely like that, that’s not wire to wire imo.  And yes, 95-96 came roaring back big time…and it doesn’t get any better than that season, but that melt out broke the wire to wire imo.    But that’s just my interpretation. 
 

It’s like going 15-1 and then winning the superbowl…absolutely incredible season and postseason!  But ya can’t say you went unbeaten/undefeated…or wire to wire.  

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