December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[BxEngine]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me

Almost zero chance we avoid some way above average days starting at the end of next week. Whether its sustained or not is a different animal.

[Brian5671]

and those gradient patterns are better for upstate NY and central/northern NE.    93-94 is an exception when the gradient was south of NYC

[eduggs]

15 hours ago, eduggs said:

Yet another snowy evening out there. Everything's dusted up pretty good - maybe 1/4". From radar I suspect parts of western or northern Morris county have accumulated 1/2" - 1" this evening. These minor events help soothe the snowstorm deprivation angst. 

Cool to see several reports around or even over an inch of snow from yesterday's snow showers in Morris, Warren, and Sussex counties. That made two days in a row of accumulating snow for the higher elevations.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=PHI
This was pretty well modeled.

 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Almost zero chance we avoid some way above average days starting at the end of next week. Whether its sustained or not is a different animal.

We will definitely warm up but it might not be long lasting.

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

65 years ago the Dec 11-12 1960 Snowstorm

 

When winter used to be winter..60-61 was one of the great ones...

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me

The models all show the PV retreating into Canada mid month and the polar jet with it. It’s not far which keeps Canada very cold so in Jan if we get a favorable pattern it won’t take much for it to come spilling back south, but we definitely warm up for a while in a pattern like that which looks zonal. It does promote high pressures over Quebec that could help in a SWFE situation but those are 90% of the time good for I-84 and north. Gradient patterns usually aren’t great for I-80/NYC unless we see something epic like 93-94. They’re a lot better for I-90 and north and that’s where New England that’s been skunked can catch up in a big way. 

[Picard]

27 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Cool to see several reports around or even over an inch of snow from yesterday's snow showers in Morris, Warren, and Sussex counties. That made two days in a row of accumulating snow for the higher elevations.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=PHI
This was pretty well modeled.

 

I'm in Sparta, and have been pretty satisfied with the winter weather so far, all things considered.  There has not been any big events - but several rounds of smaller events to make things festive.  My ground has been covered since last Tuesday because it's been so cold.  It's been nice to have a few small refreshers since then.

That said - we are still in a precip deficit out this way, so at some point I'm hoping for much bigger snows or a healthy dose of early spring rains.  

[MJO812]

Cold Christmas on the Euro with some type of storm. 

Hopefully the cold runs continue

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Model ensembles are all gung ho on a big warmup after the 20th.  Hopefully this can end after the new year or we run a risk of punting the first half of January 

No they arent . Not a huge warmup.

[rclab]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cold Christmas on the Euro with some type of storm. 

Hopefully the cold runs continue

 

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looking at the long range of an operational model lmfaooo

 

29 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Model ensembles are all gung ho on a big warmup after the 20th.  Hopefully this can end after the new year or we run a risk of punting the first half of January 

 

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No they arent . Not a huge warmup.

Even though expecting 100% accuracy from a 456 hour long range forecast is delusional ….. the potential back to reality look (for the coast)) is sobering. Stay well all, as always ….

 

[the_other_guy]

Man, you can bet on that 50° weather between the 20th and 30th of December every year.

 

For reference when I was a kid in the 80s and 90s, we went to Lake Placid every year the day after Christmas…. And it was always reliably, cold and snowy.

 

The changes particularly in the latter half of December have been astounding in my lifetime

[CentralNJSnowman]

39 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

For reference when I was a kid in the 80s and 90s, we went to Lake Placid every year the day after Christmas…. And it was always reliably, cold and snowy.

Not sure comparing Lake Placid in the 80s and 90s to NYC area in 2020s is a good gauge of climate change.  Pretty sure most winters are still quite cold and snowy in Lake Placid...even during Christmas week.

[nycwinter]

already places like saranac lake ny had temps to minus 20 recently for lows.

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Not sure comparing Lake Placid in the 80s and 90s to NYC area in 2020s is a good gauge of climate change.  Pretty sure most winters are still quite cold and snowy in Lake Placid...even during Christmas week.

The comparison is valid since the Saranac Lake area has warmed +5.2° since 1991 in late December between 17th and 31st. NYC is up +4.6° over the same period. Many areas have experienced a steep rise in late December temperatures. Its another one of the repeating patterns which have become a regular occurrence as the climate has warmed.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Not sure comparing Lake Placid in the 80s and 90s to NYC area in 2020s is a good gauge of climate change.  Pretty sure most winters are still quite cold and snowy in Lake Placid...even during Christmas week.

you can’t reliably book an xmas ski week in Lake Placid now. they have had a solid run of bad xmas weeks for a while now with a few exceptions. It’s only 300 miles north. It’s not like it’s in Siberia. If its 55 here, it is 45 there.

 

 

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Just now, North and West said:

Trouble? You’ve come to the right place.


.

I think I heard that in an Elvis song 

[JustinRP37]

I have no complaints up here in Putnam with how winter started. It has been cold, and we still have some snow on the ground. But I know winter nowadays never sustains itself, and the fact that a warmup looks likely around Christmas is shocking to nobody. I don’t even think a bookie would take the bet anymore for warmth around Christmas. On a side note, with these unpredictable winters and shrinking ski seasons, I really wonder how many seasons Thunder Ridge has left. Between the shortening season and the ancient lifts…

[North and West]

I think I heard that in an Elvis song 

Heartbreak Mo-del Runs


.

[Roger Smith]

<<< HALL OF SHAME DECEMBER SNOWFALLS >>>

(with rest of seasons)

 

Winter ____ OCT _NOV _DEC _JAN _FEB _MAR _APR  ___ TOTAL 

1877-78 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.0 __ 6.1 __ 2.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ _ 8.1 _

1882-83 ___ 0.0 _14.0 ___ 0.0 __ 9.4 __10.2 _ 10.0 __0.5 _ _ 44.1 _

1891-92 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.0 __12.2 __ 0.1 __12.0 __ 1.0 _ _ 25.3 _

2006-07 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 2.6 __ 3.8 __ 6.0 __ Tr _ _12.4 _

2011-12 ___ 2.9 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 4.3 __ 0.2 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ __ 7.4 _

 

1885-86 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___13.5 __ 5.3 __ 1,.0 __ 1.0 _ _ 20.8 _

1888-89 ___ 0.0 __ 1.5 __ Tr ___ 4.0 __ 7.0 __ 4.0 __ 0.0 _ _ 16.5 _

1895-96 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 3.0 __ 9.5 __30.5 __3.0 _ _ 46.0 _

1936-37 ___ Tr ___ 3.2 ___Tr ___ 6.5 __ 3.4 __ 2.5 __ Tr __ _ 15.6 _

1943-44 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 4.8 __ 7.7 __ 4.8 __ 6.5 _ _ 23.8 _

1953-54 ___ 0.0 __ 2.2 __ Tr ___12.7 __ 0.5 __ 0.1 __ 0.3 __ _ 15.8 _

1965-66 ___ Tr ___ 0.0 __ Tr __ 11.6 __ 9.8 __ Tr ___ 0.0 _ _ 21.4 _

1971-72 ___ 0.0 ___ Tr ___ Tr ___2.8 _ 17.8 __ 2.3 __ Tr __ _ 22.9 _

1972-73 ___ Tr ___ Tr ___ Tr ____ 1.8 __ 0.8 __ 0.2 __ Tr __ __2.8 _

1994-95 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 0.2 __11.6 __ Tr __ Tr ___ _ 11.8 _

1996-97 ___ 0.0 __ 0.1 __ Tr ___ 4.4 __ 3.8 __ 1.7 __ Tr __ _ 10.0 _

1997-98 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 0.5 __ 0.0 __ 5.0 __ 0.0 _ __ 5.5 _

1999-2000_ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 9.5 __ 5.2 __ 0.4 __ 1.2 _ _ 16.3 _

2001-02 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 3.5 ___Tr ___ Tr ___ Tr __ __ 3.5 _

2015-16 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___27.9 __ 4.0 __0.9 __ Tr __ _ 32.8 _

2018-19 ___ 0.0 __ 6.4 __ Tr ___ 1.1 ___ 2.6 _ 10.4 __ 0.0 _ _ 20.5 _

2022-23 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 2.2 ___0.1 __ 0.0 _ _ 2.3 _

2023-24 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 2.3 __ 5.2 ___ Tr __ 0.0 _ _ 7.5 _

 

1899-1900_ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.1 ___ 1.0 __ 6.6 __ 5.9 __ Tr __ _ 13.6 _

1900-01 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.1 __ 2.0 __ 7.0 __ Tr ___ 0.0 _ __ 9.1 _

1931-32 ___ 0.0 ___2.0 ___0.1 ___0.8 __ 1.8 __ 0.6 __ Tr _ __ 5.3 _

1954-55 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.1 ___ 2.6 __ 5.2 __ 3.6 _ 0.0 __ _11.5 _

1974-75 ___ 0.0 __ 0.1 __  0.1 __ 2.0 __10.6 __ 0.3 __ Tr ___ _ 13.1 _

 

2021-22 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.2 __15.3 __ 2.0 __ 0.4 __ 0.0 _ _ 17.9 _

 

1906-07 ___ 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 0.3 __11.0 _ 21.8 __13.3 __ 5.8 _ _ 53.2 _

1913-14 ____0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.3 __ 1.3 __17.4 __21.5 __ Tr __ _ 40.5 _

1918-19 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.3 __ 0.3 __ 0.5 __ 2.7 __ Tr __ __3.8 _

1941-42 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.3 __ 6.4 __ 1.9 __ 0.5 __ 2.2 _ _ 11.3 _

1988-89 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.3 __ 5.0 __ 0.3 __ 2.5 __0.0 _ __ 8.1 _

 

1977-78 ___ 0.0 __ 0.2 __ 0.4__20.3 _23.0 __6.8 __ Tr __ _ 50.7 _

1992-93 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.4 __ 1.5 _ 10.7 _11.9 __ 0.0 _ _ 24.5 _

2012-13 ___ 0.0 __ 4.7 __ 0.4 __ 1.5 __12.2 __ 7.3 __ 0.0 _ _ 26.1 _ 

 

1978-79 ___ 0.0 __ 2.2 __ 0.5 __ 6.6 _20.1 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ _ 29.4 _

1986-87 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.6 __13.6 __ 7.0 __ 1.9 __ 0.0 _ _ 23.1 _

1937-38 ___ Tr ___ 0.8 __ 0.7 __ 6.5 __ Tr ___ 0.7 __ 6.4 __ _15.1 _

1991-92 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.7 __ 1.5 ___ 1.0 __ 9.4 __ Tr __ _ 12.6 _

1956-57 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.9 __ 8.9 __ 7.0 __ 2.6 __ 2.5 _ _ 21.9 _

1985-86 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.9 __ 2.2 __ 9.9 __ Tr ___ Tr __ _ 13.0 _

1875-76 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 1.5 __ 12.5 __ 3.8 __ 0.0 _ _ 18.8 _

1905-06 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 1.5 __ 6.0 __ 11.5 __ Tr _ _ 20.0 _ 

1934-35 ___ Tr ___ Tr ____1.0 __23.6 __ 7.2 __ 2.0 __ Tr _ _ 33.8 _

2014-15 ___ 0.0 __ 0.2 __ 1.0 __16.9 _ 13.6 _18.6 __ 0.0 _ _ 50.3 _

1881-82 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 1.3 __ 17.5 __ 9.3 __ 2.8 __ 0.5 _ _ 31.4 _

1946-47 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___1.3 __ 5.5 __ 17.7 __ 6.1 __ Tr __ _ 30.6 _

1949-50 ___ 0.0 __ 0.5 __ 1.3 ___ 0.4 __ 8.5 __ 1.4 __ 1.9 __ _14.0 _

1989-90 ___ 0.0 __ 4.7 __ 1.4 __ 1.8 __ 1.8 ___ 3.1 __ 0.6 _ _ 13.4 _

1898-99 ___ 0.0 __19.0 __ 1.5 __ 5.3 __25.3 __4.8 __ 0.0 _ _ 55.9 _

__________________________

From this arbitrary cutoff at 1.5" for Dec snow, there are 52 (of 156) winter seasons where Dec snow is less than 1.5" and of those, 23 had no snow or a trace amount and five more just 0.1". A few of those cases had significant snow before December, notably 1882-83 and 1898-99. So there may have been snow on the ground for the first portion of some of these futile Decembers. A few were quite cold or even very cold (1989), so that small amounts of snow would have persisted longer. 

The interesting thing here is the frequency of nearly snow-free Decembers (0.2" or less, about one in five) and low-snowfall cases (0.3" to 1.5") expanding that to one in three, so it is almost a normal feature of the climate. the Dec average snowfall is clearly influenced by a few heavy falls such as 1947, and the median is probably lower than the mean. 

Also interesting is a significant number of very good snowfall winters following on, such as 1898-1899, 2014-2015, 1977-1978, and 1913-14.

The median seasonal snowfall after a hall of shame December is 16.0" which shows that a poor December is often an indicator of a poor winter, but there are plenty of exceptions to inspire some optimism. The number of exceptions increases towards the cutoff point, it seems that 1.0" or more snowfall is not a contra-indication for the chances of an average season eventually. 

 

[donsutherland1]

It will be increasingly cloudy and cold tomorrow. Light to moderate snow will overspread the region tomorrow night. The New York City area will see a general 1"-3" snowfall with a few locally higher amounts.

In the wake of the system, Sunday and Monday will be blustery and cold days. High temperatures will likely wind up below freezing.

The WPO is falling toward severely negative levels. That will likely contribute to the December 10-20 period being colder than normal overall. Moderation is possible late in the period as the WPO begins to rise.

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -4.67 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.811 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 89% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.8° (4.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will be increasingly cloudy and cold tomorrow. Light to moderate snow will overspread the region tomorrow night. The New York City area will see a general 1"-3" snowfall with a few locally higher amounts.

In the wake of the system, Sunday and Monday will be blustery and cold days. High temperatures will likely wind up below freezing.

The WPO is falling toward severely negative levels. That will likely contribute to the December 10-20 period being colder than normal overall. Moderation is possible late in the period as the WPO begins to rise.

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -4.67 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.811 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 89% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.8° (4.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Thank You Don as that is EXACTLY what I was saying prior to my posts being pulled but you said it much more eloquently ,, enjoy the snow tomorrow night folks

[jimbo073]

11 hours ago, Nibor said:

That little band of snow last night packed a punch.

Yes we had that in Hoboken too

 

[Roger Smith]

<<< LOWEST DECEMBER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES >>>

Rank __ Year __ Temp 

_ 01 ____ 1917 __ 47 (1st) 

_t02 ____ 1872 __ 49 (15th), 1876 _ 49 (13th), 1880 _ 49 (5th), 1890 _ 49 (3rd), 1926 _ 49 (14th)

_t07 ____ 1874 __ 51 (3rd), 1882 _ 51 (6th), 1904 _ 51 (28th)

_t10 ____ 1909 __ 53 (6,13,14), 1944 _ 53 (8th), 1955 _ 53 (3rd), 1989 _ 53 (31st) (was 2nd lowest 48 before that)

_t14 ____ 1903 __ 54 (13th), 1910 _ 54 (30th), 1945 _ 54 (8th), 1997 _ 54 (16th)

_t18 ____ 1871 __ 55 (23rd), 1883 _ 55 (8th), 1886 _ 55 (24th), 1888 _ 55 (17th), 1902 _ 55 (22nd)

___ ___ t18 __ 1933 _ 55 (25th), 1958 _ 55 (5th), 1963 _ 55 (8th), 1976 _ 55 (7th), 1985 _ 55 (2nd, 24th),

___ ___ t18 __ 1995 _ 55 (3rd), 2005 _ 55 (24th)

_t30 ____ 1907 __ 56 (10th), 1929 _ 56 (14,15,19), 1935 _ 56 (9th), 1974 _ 56 (8th), 1977 _ 56 (14th)

_t35 ____ 1870 __ 57 (4th), 1894 _ 55 (12th), 1896 _ 57 (13th), 1898 _ 57 (30th), 1907 _ 57 (23rd), 

___ ___ t35 _ 1915 _ 57 (18th), 1922 _ 57 (1st), 1943 _ 57 (9th), 1959 _ 57 (13th)

_t44 ____ 1887 __ 58 (11th), 1892 _ 58 (8th), 1913 _ 58 (3rd), 1920 _ 58 (14th)

___ ___ _t44 _ 1925 _ 58 (5th, 6th), 1930 _ 58 (1st), 1942 _ 58 (2nd), 1947 _ 58 (3rd), 1948 _ 58 (13th), 

___ ___ _t44 _ 1961 _ 58 (5th), 1981 _ 58 (2nd), 2003 _ 58 (13th), 2019 _ 58 (10th)

_t57 ____ 1877 __ 59 (20th), 1884 __ 59 (31st), 1893 __ 59 (16th), 1899 _ 59 (11th,12th), 1900 _ 59 (24th),  

___ ___ t57 _ 1905 _ 59 (3rd), 1906 _ 59 (31st), 1921 _ 59 (1st)1952 _ 59 (11th), 1957 _ 59 (20th), 

___ ___ t57 _ 1972 _ 59 (31st), 1983 _ 59 (12th, 13th), 1986 _ 59 (3rd), 2004 _ 59 (8th, 23rd)

================================================

Up to 1910, it was normal for December to fail to break 59 F, it happened in 30 of 42 years (71%). 

From 1911 to 1960 it happened 23 more times (46%).

From 1961 to 2000 it happened 13 more times (33%). 

From 2001 to 2024 it happened 4 more times (17%). (2003,04,05,19)

Overall it has happened 70 times (45%). 

The interval 2006 to 2018 (13 Decembers) is the longest interval without a sub-60 maximum value.

Before that, the longest such interval was ten years (1964 to 1973) and before that six years (1936 to 1941). 

The average value for all years is 60.3 F. Since 1961 the average is 62.2 F. Since 1990 it is 62.9 F. 

 

 

[steve392]

11 hours ago, Nibor said:

That little band of snow last night packed a punch.

What time did it hit?  Explains all the snow in Kearny. 

[MANDA]

8 hours ago, Picard said:

I'm in Sparta, and have been pretty satisfied with the winter weather so far, all things considered.  There has not been any big events - but several rounds of smaller events to make things festive.  My ground has been covered since last Tuesday because it's been so cold.  It's been nice to have a few small refreshers since then.

That said - we are still in a precip deficit out this way, so at some point I'm hoping for much bigger snows or a healthy dose of early spring rains.  

Picked up .7" snowfall last evening in persistent and at times heavy snow squalls.  Visibility on Route 80 at the height of things was horrendous with moderate to heavy snow at times and a gusty wind.  The salt water spray being kicked up onto the windshield was no help either.

The .7" last evening boosts my seasonal total to 2.3".  On a nickle and dime ride to 3".

Lots of brine being sprayed today.  As early as 9am on Route 10 out this way.  Just don't see how it helps to spray this stuff 36 hours before an event is scheduled to begin.  Wouldn't it be worn out by all the traffic over 36 hours??  I don't know, just asking.

[Volcanic Winter]

Holding steady at 15F here, nice cold ground ahead of this little event. Looks like SEMA is gonna pick up the most in NE and I’m happy for those guys, they’ve been getting screwed as much as the NYC area lately. 

Hopefully this is a nice little event for everyone. I think LI down to my area should do pretty solid, hopefully it ticks up for NYC also. 

[SnoSki14]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cold Christmas on the Euro with some type of storm. 

Hopefully the cold runs continue

Strong gradient like pattern. Some models showing Arctic ridging. If the gradient can slip south every now and then for latter Dec and Jan then it could get interesting. 

I'd feel better being north though 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Strong gradient like pattern. Some models showing Arctic ridging. If the gradient can slip south every now and then for latter Dec and Jan then it could get interesting. 

I'd feel better being north though 

Way too much cold air to the north to be a blowtorch pattern

[bluewave]

One more Arctic outbreak before the pattern moderates.

 

 

[TJW014]

Beautiful sunrise. 

Red sky in the morning, a sailor's warning. 

Definitely has that "it's gonna snow" feeling in the air