December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Wind advisories expanded into OKX forecast area:

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern
New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern
Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-
Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern
Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern
Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1243 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Tuesday.

Figured that was coming

[forkyfork]

40 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Wind advisories expanded into OKX forecast area:

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern
New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern
Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-
Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern
Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern
Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1243 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Tuesday.

not bullish enough. 50 kt gusts easily

[Nibor]

 

Slushy patches left here in Washington Square Park. Probably gone by the end of today. 

[Stormlover74]

Pittsburgh gusted to 61

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

41 and cloudy. Precipitation done and only two hours of daylight left. Looks like this snow pack is going to be around well into the New year. 

[mgerb]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Pittsburgh gusted to 61

Not as applicable to our latitude, but saw Buffalo gusted to 79 mph (though I see 75 mph, so not sure if the 79 is legit). 

[Rjay]

That was quick 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

2:36 pm

 

[wthrmn654]

[snywx]

Temp is up to 43 here

Winds already gusting to 35mph

[MANDA]

2:45. Temp 38

just a little bit left 

 

 

[rclab]

Friday ….. Saturday …..  Monday, As always …

 

[IrishRob17]

Whew, made it through with solid snow cover. The temp is 45 now but will be dropping very shortly, the dews thankfully started dropping over an hour ago, after a high of 41 the dew is now back down to 26. Only had two hours of dews upper 30s, which is when the pack really starts to go.  

[donsutherland1]

Clouds will continue to break from west to east this evening, as colder air moves back into the region. Tomorrow and Wednesday will see cooler than normal days. Below normal temperatures will continue into at least the middle of the first week of January. Some flurries or snow showers are possible late on Thursday into Friday. 

The first week of January will likely have a mean temperature below 30° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2018. The only years since 2000 with a sub-30° mean temperature for the opening week of January were 2001, 2010, 2014 and 2018.

December 2025 is on course to finish with a maximum monthly temperature below 60° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. This will be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +3.94 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.053 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.8° (5.3° below normal). That will make December 2025 the coldest December since 2010 when the monthly mean temperature was 32.8°. It would also make 2025 the third coldest December since 2000.

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[ForestHillWx]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

2:45. Temp 38

just a little bit left 

 

 

This is somewhat surprising; we are still covered here and much less blue-sky/sun.

I’m concerned about our driveway, that I didn’t shovel (it’s hard pack stone); time to hit it with calcium chloride. 

[donsutherland1]

Clouds are now breaking near sunset.

[RockawayRowdies]

23 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

This is somewhat surprising; we are still covered here and much less blue-sky/sun.

I’m concerned about our driveway, that I didn’t shovel (it’s hard pack stone); time to hit it with calcium chloride. 

Same here in Rockaway borough.. backyard is still all white.

[snywx]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Whew, made it through with solid snow cover. The temp is 45 now but will be dropping very shortly, the dews thankfully started dropping over an hour ago, after a high of 41 the dew is now back down to 26. Only had two hours of dews upper 30s, which is when the pack really starts to go.  

How much survived ? We have about 3” here. 100% coverage 

[IrishRob17]

4 minutes ago, snywx said:

How much survived ? We have about 3” here. 100% coverage 

Looks to be 3-4" and definitely 100% coverage out there. The minimum time of juicy dews today, the denser snowpack to begin with and the close to .1 of ice from the freezing rain on top were all factors here. 

[steve392]

Beautiful sunset, temps still holding steady at 44 but winds are really starting to howl at times.  

[mob1]

Surprisingly resilient snowpack. Some of the very exposed areas are bare, but the overwhelming majority of streets still have full snowcover.