December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[SACRUS]

 

65 years ago the Dec 11-12 1960 Snowstorm

 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

65 years ago the Dec 11-12 1960 Snowstorm

 

my grandparents were visiting from southern indianan and they had never seen snow like that.....an older woman told me her husband died shoveling the snow and she had to keep him the house for a few days as no one could get to her.....

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

we did have the jan 2016 blockbuster after a warm snowless december, but it was really a one off kinda winter....

2015-2016 was a super El Niño like 1982-1983 and both years had blockbuster snowstorms during the 2nd half of winter. This was the case since El Niños usually start out slow snd have their snowiest periods later. So we often can’t use December El Niños as a marker for the rest of the season.

But sometimes in the cases like 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 El Niños, December is so snowy that we get epic follow up snows during the February El Niño prime time. So in those cases a December forecast for a very snowy season would have worked out. 

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2015-2016 was a super El Niño like 1982-1983 and both years had blockbuster snowstorms during the 2nd half of winter. This was the case since El Niños usually start out slow snd have their snowiest periods later. So we often can’t use December El Niños as a marker for the rest of the season.

But sometimes in the cases like 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 El Niños, December is so snowy that we get epic follow up snows during the February El Niño prime time. So in those cases a December forecast for a very snowy season would have worked out. 

2010 shall live in infamy in the nyc metro....it was great by today's standards, but most of the good stuff was just a hair too south....still i'd take the 3 big storms we had that were around a foot each in a heartbeat today. but as a retiree now with bad knees and a bad back, and adult kids who have to drive each day, i no longer wish for a lot of snow. i never had to work or drive in it, working in a school, and my kids would be home, but things are different now. 3-6 inches is about my limit these days. and even they are getting hard to come by. 2021 was quite good, but we were all busy with something else that year. i still suffer bouts of brain fog from long covid. 

[Evie3]

32 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

65 years ago the Dec 11-12 1960 Snowstorm

 

That might be the storm that I remember as a very little girl on our farm in Sussex County, the storm that closed down Idlewild Airport for multiple days.  We had a very, very long driveway that came off route 202 not far from the Benedictine monastery.  My dad co-owned a construction company in Middlesex County and they finally sent their own commercial equipment to plow us out. It was like driving through a snow tunnel. Thankfully we had our own electric generator but we were starting to run low on canned food.  This was traumatic for my mother who grew up in Newark and was used to being able to go to the corner store whenever she needed something.  I used to think that Green Acres was a parody about my parents lol.  After that she became a permanent canned food hoarder....

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

2010 shall live in infamy in the nyc metro....it was great by today's standards, but most of the good stuff was just a hair too south....still i'd take the 3 big storms we had that were around a foot each in a heartbeat today. but as a retiree now with bad knees and a bad back, and adult kids who have to drive each day, i no longer wish for a lot of snow. i never had to work or drive in it, working in a school, and my kids would be home, but things are different now. 3-6 inches is about my limit these days. and even they are getting hard to come by. 2021 was quite good, but we were all busy with something else that year. i still suffer bouts of brain fog from long covid. 

Yeah, the 100-200 year blocking event that winter as per some of the historical reconstructions was just too strong for the 75”+seasonal totals to our south to make it up to the NYC Metro era. A little weaker on the blocking and NYC could have approached the 1995-1996 all-time record. Same went for 2010-2011 which could have challenged the 75” mark around NYC had the snowy pattern persisted into February and March.

[steve392]

Driving to work.  A few water main braues caused icy conditions but so did the apparent snow in Hudson county.  95 in Kearny, 3cits and at job were all coated in snow. 

[MJO812]

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me

[WeatherGeek2025]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me

those usually setup where Monticello and north get massive snows while we rain and drizzle! No thanks please just give us warmth if it's not going to snow!

[BxEngine]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me

Almost zero chance we avoid some way above average days starting at the end of next week. Whether its sustained or not is a different animal.

[Brian5671]

and those gradient patterns are better for upstate NY and central/northern NE.    93-94 is an exception when the gradient was south of NYC

[eduggs]

15 hours ago, eduggs said:

Yet another snowy evening out there. Everything's dusted up pretty good - maybe 1/4". From radar I suspect parts of western or northern Morris county have accumulated 1/2" - 1" this evening. These minor events help soothe the snowstorm deprivation angst. 

Cool to see several reports around or even over an inch of snow from yesterday's snow showers in Morris, Warren, and Sussex counties. That made two days in a row of accumulating snow for the higher elevations.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=PHI
This was pretty well modeled.

 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Almost zero chance we avoid some way above average days starting at the end of next week. Whether its sustained or not is a different animal.

We will definitely warm up but it might not be long lasting.

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

65 years ago the Dec 11-12 1960 Snowstorm

 

When winter used to be winter..60-61 was one of the great ones...

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Im not sure if we gonna see a big warmup. So much cold air up north. Looks like a gradient pattern to me

The models all show the PV retreating into Canada mid month and the polar jet with it. It’s not far which keeps Canada very cold so in Jan if we get a favorable pattern it won’t take much for it to come spilling back south, but we definitely warm up for a while in a pattern like that which looks zonal. It does promote high pressures over Quebec that could help in a SWFE situation but those are 90% of the time good for I-84 and north. Gradient patterns usually aren’t great for I-80/NYC unless we see something epic like 93-94. They’re a lot better for I-90 and north and that’s where New England that’s been skunked can catch up in a big way. 

[Picard]

27 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Cool to see several reports around or even over an inch of snow from yesterday's snow showers in Morris, Warren, and Sussex counties. That made two days in a row of accumulating snow for the higher elevations.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=PHI
This was pretty well modeled.

 

I'm in Sparta, and have been pretty satisfied with the winter weather so far, all things considered.  There has not been any big events - but several rounds of smaller events to make things festive.  My ground has been covered since last Tuesday because it's been so cold.  It's been nice to have a few small refreshers since then.

That said - we are still in a precip deficit out this way, so at some point I'm hoping for much bigger snows or a healthy dose of early spring rains.  

[MJO812]

Cold Christmas on the Euro with some type of storm. 

Hopefully the cold runs continue

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Model ensembles are all gung ho on a big warmup after the 20th.  Hopefully this can end after the new year or we run a risk of punting the first half of January 

No they arent . Not a huge warmup.

[bluewave]

The snowfall data below is what I post each December for La Niña conditions using the newer RONI definition due to the warming of the global oceans. The December to seasonal snowfall relationship has worked 14 out of the last 15 times.

My guess is the reason for the reliability as an early seasonal marker for below and normal to above average snowfall across the entire season is related to the La Niña seasonal progression. They tend to be more frontloaded in nature so their seasonal snowfall pattern is usually revealed early on in December. Plus in our warmer climate we have been noticing more repeating patterns perhaps related to non linear convective thresholds being met in tropical oceans driving the forcing.

The relationship holds for NYC, EWR, and LGA. I will post the data for NYC below which is similar to the other two stations. For the sake of this discussion I have been using 4” of snow in December as the cutoff. But it’s possible that it could actually be a little higher around 5” inches based on the available data. So it’s fine if someone else wants to use a 4-5” snowfall range for December snowfall as the cutoff line for below and normal to above normal seasonal snowfall.

I am not making the argument that the December snowfall is causing the outcome of the rest of the season to change. Just that it serves as a marker of what expect the rest of the season. Sometimes two data points can be related due to other underlying variables that may not yet be fully sampled by our current scientific understanding.  

I will update this post once we have the complete December snowfall data.

NYC December to seasonal snowfall during the most recent 15 La Niña seasons as defined by RONI in either the fall into winter

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

24-25….2.8”….12.9”

22-23….T……….2.3”

21-22…..0.2”……17.9”

20-21…..10.5”….38.6”

17-18……7.7”……40.9”

16-17……3.2”……30.2” the one case in the last 30 years that didn’t work out

11-12……0.0”…..7.4”

10-11…..20.1”…..61.9”

08-09…..6.0”…..27.6”

07-08……2.9”…..11.9”

05-06…..9.7”…..40.0”

00-01…..13.4”…..35.0”

99-00…..T……….16.3”

98-99……2.0”…..12.7”

95-96…..11.5”……75.6”

 

[rclab]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cold Christmas on the Euro with some type of storm. 

Hopefully the cold runs continue

 

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looking at the long range of an operational model lmfaooo

 

29 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Model ensembles are all gung ho on a big warmup after the 20th.  Hopefully this can end after the new year or we run a risk of punting the first half of January 

 

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No they arent . Not a huge warmup.

Even though expecting 100% accuracy from a 456 hour long range forecast is delusional ….. the potential back to reality look (for the coast)) is sobering. Stay well all, as always ….

 

[the_other_guy]

Man, you can bet on that 50° weather between the 20th and 30th of December every year.

 

For reference when I was a kid in the 80s and 90s, we went to Lake Placid every year the day after Christmas…. And it was always reliably, cold and snowy.

 

The changes particularly in the latter half of December have been astounding in my lifetime

[CentralNJSnowman]

39 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

For reference when I was a kid in the 80s and 90s, we went to Lake Placid every year the day after Christmas…. And it was always reliably, cold and snowy.

Not sure comparing Lake Placid in the 80s and 90s to NYC area in 2020s is a good gauge of climate change.  Pretty sure most winters are still quite cold and snowy in Lake Placid...even during Christmas week.

[nycwinter]

already places like saranac lake ny had temps to minus 20 recently for lows.

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Not sure comparing Lake Placid in the 80s and 90s to NYC area in 2020s is a good gauge of climate change.  Pretty sure most winters are still quite cold and snowy in Lake Placid...even during Christmas week.

The comparison is valid since the Saranac Lake area has warmed +5.2° since 1991 in late December between 17th and 31st. NYC is up +4.6° over the same period. Many areas have experienced a steep rise in late December temperatures. Its another one of the repeating patterns which have become a regular occurrence as the climate has warmed.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Not sure comparing Lake Placid in the 80s and 90s to NYC area in 2020s is a good gauge of climate change.  Pretty sure most winters are still quite cold and snowy in Lake Placid...even during Christmas week.

you can’t reliably book an xmas ski week in Lake Placid now. they have had a solid run of bad xmas weeks for a while now with a few exceptions. It’s only 300 miles north. It’s not like it’s in Siberia. If its 55 here, it is 45 there.

 

 

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Just now, North and West said:

Trouble? You’ve come to the right place.


.

I think I heard that in an Elvis song 

[JustinRP37]

I have no complaints up here in Putnam with how winter started. It has been cold, and we still have some snow on the ground. But I know winter nowadays never sustains itself, and the fact that a warmup looks likely around Christmas is shocking to nobody. I don’t even think a bookie would take the bet anymore for warmth around Christmas. On a side note, with these unpredictable winters and shrinking ski seasons, I really wonder how many seasons Thunder Ridge has left. Between the shortening season and the ancient lifts…

[North and West]

I think I heard that in an Elvis song 

Heartbreak Mo-del Runs


.

[Roger Smith]

<<< HALL OF SHAME DECEMBER SNOWFALLS >>>

(with rest of seasons)

 

Winter ____ OCT _NOV _DEC _JAN _FEB _MAR _APR  ___ TOTAL 

1877-78 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.0 __ 6.1 __ 2.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ _ 8.1 _

1882-83 ___ 0.0 _14.0 ___ 0.0 __ 9.4 __10.2 _ 10.0 __0.5 _ _ 44.1 _

1891-92 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.0 __12.2 __ 0.1 __12.0 __ 1.0 _ _ 25.3 _

2006-07 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 2.6 __ 3.8 __ 6.0 __ Tr _ _12.4 _

2011-12 ___ 2.9 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 4.3 __ 0.2 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ __ 7.4 _

 

1885-86 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___13.5 __ 5.3 __ 1,.0 __ 1.0 _ _ 20.8 _

1888-89 ___ 0.0 __ 1.5 __ Tr ___ 4.0 __ 7.0 __ 4.0 __ 0.0 _ _ 16.5 _

1895-96 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 3.0 __ 9.5 __30.5 __3.0 _ _ 46.0 _

1936-37 ___ Tr ___ 3.2 ___Tr ___ 6.5 __ 3.4 __ 2.5 __ Tr __ _ 15.6 _

1943-44 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 4.8 __ 7.7 __ 4.8 __ 6.5 _ _ 23.8 _

1953-54 ___ 0.0 __ 2.2 __ Tr ___12.7 __ 0.5 __ 0.1 __ 0.3 __ _ 15.8 _

1965-66 ___ Tr ___ 0.0 __ Tr __ 11.6 __ 9.8 __ Tr ___ 0.0 _ _ 21.4 _

1971-72 ___ 0.0 ___ Tr ___ Tr ___2.8 _ 17.8 __ 2.3 __ Tr __ _ 22.9 _

1972-73 ___ Tr ___ Tr ___ Tr ____ 1.8 __ 0.8 __ 0.2 __ Tr __ __2.8 _

1994-95 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 0.2 __11.6 __ Tr __ Tr ___ _ 11.8 _

1996-97 ___ 0.0 __ 0.1 __ Tr ___ 4.4 __ 3.8 __ 1.7 __ Tr __ _ 10.0 _

1997-98 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 0.5 __ 0.0 __ 5.0 __ 0.0 _ __ 5.5 _

1999-2000_ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 9.5 __ 5.2 __ 0.4 __ 1.2 _ _ 16.3 _

2001-02 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 3.5 ___Tr ___ Tr ___ Tr __ __ 3.5 _

2015-16 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___27.9 __ 4.0 __0.9 __ Tr __ _ 32.8 _

2018-19 ___ 0.0 __ 6.4 __ Tr ___ 1.1 ___ 2.6 _ 10.4 __ 0.0 _ _ 20.5 _

2022-23 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 2.2 ___0.1 __ 0.0 _ _ 2.3 _

2023-24 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 2.3 __ 5.2 ___ Tr __ 0.0 _ _ 7.5 _

 

1899-1900_ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.1 ___ 1.0 __ 6.6 __ 5.9 __ Tr __ _ 13.6 _

1900-01 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.1 __ 2.0 __ 7.0 __ Tr ___ 0.0 _ __ 9.1 _

1931-32 ___ 0.0 ___2.0 ___0.1 ___0.8 __ 1.8 __ 0.6 __ Tr _ __ 5.3 _

1954-55 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.1 ___ 2.6 __ 5.2 __ 3.6 _ 0.0 __ _11.5 _

1974-75 ___ 0.0 __ 0.1 __  0.1 __ 2.0 __10.6 __ 0.3 __ Tr ___ _ 13.1 _

 

2021-22 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.2 __15.3 __ 2.0 __ 0.4 __ 0.0 _ _ 17.9 _

 

1906-07 ___ 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 0.3 __11.0 _ 21.8 __13.3 __ 5.8 _ _ 53.2 _

1913-14 ____0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.3 __ 1.3 __17.4 __21.5 __ Tr __ _ 40.5 _

1918-19 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.3 __ 0.3 __ 0.5 __ 2.7 __ Tr __ __3.8 _

1941-42 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.3 __ 6.4 __ 1.9 __ 0.5 __ 2.2 _ _ 11.3 _

1988-89 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.3 __ 5.0 __ 0.3 __ 2.5 __0.0 _ __ 8.1 _

 

1977-78 ___ 0.0 __ 0.2 __ 0.4__20.3 _23.0 __6.8 __ Tr __ _ 50.7 _

1992-93 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.4 __ 1.5 _ 10.7 _11.9 __ 0.0 _ _ 24.5 _

2012-13 ___ 0.0 __ 4.7 __ 0.4 __ 1.5 __12.2 __ 7.3 __ 0.0 _ _ 26.1 _ 

 

1978-79 ___ 0.0 __ 2.2 __ 0.5 __ 6.6 _20.1 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ _ 29.4 _

1986-87 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.6 __13.6 __ 7.0 __ 1.9 __ 0.0 _ _ 23.1 _

1937-38 ___ Tr ___ 0.8 __ 0.7 __ 6.5 __ Tr ___ 0.7 __ 6.4 __ _15.1 _

1991-92 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.7 __ 1.5 ___ 1.0 __ 9.4 __ Tr __ _ 12.6 _

1956-57 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.9 __ 8.9 __ 7.0 __ 2.6 __ 2.5 _ _ 21.9 _

1985-86 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.9 __ 2.2 __ 9.9 __ Tr ___ Tr __ _ 13.0 _

1875-76 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 1.5 __ 12.5 __ 3.8 __ 0.0 _ _ 18.8 _

1905-06 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 1.5 __ 6.0 __ 11.5 __ Tr _ _ 20.0 _ 

1934-35 ___ Tr ___ Tr ____1.0 __23.6 __ 7.2 __ 2.0 __ Tr _ _ 33.8 _

2014-15 ___ 0.0 __ 0.2 __ 1.0 __16.9 _ 13.6 _18.6 __ 0.0 _ _ 50.3 _

1881-82 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 1.3 __ 17.5 __ 9.3 __ 2.8 __ 0.5 _ _ 31.4 _

1946-47 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___1.3 __ 5.5 __ 17.7 __ 6.1 __ Tr __ _ 30.6 _

1949-50 ___ 0.0 __ 0.5 __ 1.3 ___ 0.4 __ 8.5 __ 1.4 __ 1.9 __ _14.0 _

1989-90 ___ 0.0 __ 4.7 __ 1.4 __ 1.8 __ 1.8 ___ 3.1 __ 0.6 _ _ 13.4 _

1898-99 ___ 0.0 __19.0 __ 1.5 __ 5.3 __25.3 __4.8 __ 0.0 _ _ 55.9 _

__________________________

From this arbitrary cutoff at 1.5" for Dec snow, there are 52 (of 156) winter seasons where Dec snow is less than 1.5" and of those, 23 had no snow or a trace amount and five more just 0.1". A few of those cases had significant snow before December, notably 1882-83 and 1898-99. So there may have been snow on the ground for the first portion of some of these futile Decembers. A few were quite cold or even very cold (1989), so that small amounts of snow would have persisted longer. 

The interesting thing here is the frequency of nearly snow-free Decembers (0.2" or less, about one in five) and low-snowfall cases (0.3" to 1.5") expanding that to one in three, so it is almost a normal feature of the climate. the Dec average snowfall is clearly influenced by a few heavy falls such as 1947, and the median is probably lower than the mean. 

Also interesting is a significant number of very good snowfall winters following on, such as 1898-1899, 2014-2015, 1977-1978, and 1913-14.

The median seasonal snowfall after a hall of shame December is 16.0" which shows that a poor December is often an indicator of a poor winter, but there are plenty of exceptions to inspire some optimism. The number of exceptions increases towards the cutoff point, it seems that 1.0" or more snowfall is not a contra-indication for the chances of an average season eventually. 

 

[donsutherland1]

It will be increasingly cloudy and cold tomorrow. Light to moderate snow will overspread the region tomorrow night. The New York City area will see a general 1"-3" snowfall with a few locally higher amounts.

In the wake of the system, Sunday and Monday will be blustery and cold days. High temperatures will likely wind up below freezing.

The WPO is falling toward severely negative levels. That will likely contribute to the December 10-20 period being colder than normal overall. Moderation is possible late in the period as the WPO begins to rise.

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -4.67 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.811 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 89% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.8° (4.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.