November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

59 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Overnight GFS showing a rapid strengthening of the polar vortex after this episode. Yikes.

 

It takes it to a hair over the mean during the first week of January. What's the big deal? More normal presented as sensational on the internet. 

[poolz1]

The quick rebound of the PV was forecasted weeks ago when the Euro Ext was first showing signs that there may be a reversal. I recall noting that before the end of the forecast period it appeared to rebound to around normal.  Not sure how much this really matters tho.  MJO possibly in 8-1 and a normal PV strength.   

[Terpeast]

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. 

We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with.

And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall. 

[WxUSAF]

Two things have consistently diminished from the long to short range over the last 4 months: big rain events and big torches. Will early December finally have both? I guess we’ll see.

[NorthArlington101]

The realistic bar for a successful December these days is a seasonable Christmas and a 1-3”er at some point. Once we start stringing a few of those together we can be ledge jumping on Nov. 22nd because a few LR ens runs don’t look as good as they used to 

[Benjamn3]

I think a lot of people jumping this early, is due to the trauma of wearing gym clothes to Christmas events some years. I just hope for seasonable in Dec, anything more is gravy. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

46 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

wearing gym clothes to Christmas events some years.

I mean Christmas 2015 was in the 70s and we all know what happened a month later.

[simbasad2]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. 

We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with.

And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall. 

I think people often forget that the beginning half of December is climatologically unfavorable for snow for the Mid-Atlantic

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, simbasad2 said:

I think people often forget that the beginning half of December is climatologically unfavorable for snow for the Mid-Atlantic

Also there have been loads of times where once a crap pattern is established it persists for the remainder of winter.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Also there have been loads of times where once a crap pattern is established it persists for the remainder of winter.

This isn’t true. For every example a pattern started in dec and persisted, I can come up with a few counter examples when the pattern changed in January. 

[aldie 22]

You guys are dumb

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This isn’t true. For every example a pattern started in dec and persisted, I can come up with a few counter examples when the pattern changed in January. 

All those times were cold decembers that changed to torches in january that persisted for the remainder of the season.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

All those times were cold decembers that changed to torches in january that persisted for the remainder of the season.

 

50 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean Christmas 2015 was in the 70s and we all know what happened a month later.

 

[katabatic]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. 

We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with.

And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall. 

I did jump but I'd hardly call it a ledge at one or two inches high which, coincidentally, is the most snow anyone will see this winter. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

 

I said loads of times, not every time.

[simbasad2]

21 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Also there have been loads of times where once a crap pattern is established it persists for the remainder of winter.

All the signs in the world point to this not being the case this winter

[simbasad2]

23 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Also there have been loads of times where once a crap pattern is established it persists for the remainder of winter.

Also this is a vibeology thing more than a meteorology thing. A torchy 576dm ridge in the first week of December does not change the probability of a good pattern setting up at the end of December. The only reason this *would* be the case is if subseasonal and seasonal patterns were unfavorable which they won't be for Dec 2025.

[nj2va]

Thanksgiving and Black Friday continue to look cold after the front pushes through.  We’re hosting about 15 family members at Deep Creek so looking forward to a cold holiday…hopefully some lake effect/upslope snow for the kids (and more importantly, me ).

[stormy]

This should help some who are whining over Christmas.

Christmas of 1965, I recorded a high of 65 degrees.

January of 1966, I received 36 inches of snow..............................

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

This should help some who are whining over Christmas.

Christmas of 1965, I recorded a high of 65 degrees.

January of 1966, I received 36 inches of snow..............................

Yup. Then it was gone in a week.

[WEATHER53]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The favorable H5 look for December has slowly degraded on models over the last few weeks. 

-early Nov models had a persistent -NAO through Dec.. that's really changed to positive around the end of Nov/early Dec

-A few days ago there was a strong +PNA on models. That has about disspeared

-The -EPO was looking like it would be a strong pattern a week ago. It's still going to happen, but now as strong and persistent as before. By the 2nd week of December it's probably gone

The best thing going for us is the Stratosphere warming, which usually "downwells" in +30 days at this time of year... puts a possible -NAO pattern for the 2nd half of December. 

CAB and vacillating at its worse 

[stormy]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup. Then it was gone in a week.

As a matter of fact,  I received an additional 2.5 inches of snow on Feb.1

Additional 1 inch on Feb. 2 with a high of 30. The next 5 days were cold with low to mid 30's for highs.

A thaw in week 2 with temps. creeping into the low 40's.

Another 10 inches of snow on Feb. 24 with a high of 27.

1966 was a snowy year with 76 inches recorded.

[WEATHER53]

23 hours ago, eduggs said:

You cannot disprove a theory with feelings. Human quality-of-life has improved tremendously over the past few centuries (medicine [germ theory], electricity, water treatment, agriculture etc...) because (some) humans used science (data, evidence, repeatability) to solve problems instead of emotion, superstition, gut feeling etc... Human perceptions are biased and must be validated with observable data to draw reliable conclusions. Fortunately people like you (non-fact-based) do not steer social and technological policies and developments. You undoubtedly have other ways to contribute to society, but assessing the state of meteorological modeling isn't one of them.

Lots of words that said nothing. People that are addicted to a certain something will attack to defend it. You protected your models well . Your sociological commentary was funny

 

[wxdude64]

53 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup. Then it was gone in a week.

But it was a glorious week lol.

[iluvsnow]

12 hours ago, jayyy said:

ALEET!!

Amazing how that classic DT typo from years ago lives in infamy.....forever! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

43 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

CAB and vacillating at its worse 

Why be negative? 
Things change, you have to be able to change with it. "The MJO forecast way out in time" has done so poorly as a forecasting tool over the years.