November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

59 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Overnight GFS showing a rapid strengthening of the polar vortex after this episode. Yikes.

 

It takes it to a hair over the mean during the first week of January. What's the big deal? More normal presented as sensational on the internet. 

[poolz1]

The quick rebound of the PV was forecasted weeks ago when the Euro Ext was first showing signs that there may be a reversal. I recall noting that before the end of the forecast period it appeared to rebound to around normal.  Not sure how much this really matters tho.  MJO possibly in 8-1 and a normal PV strength.   

[Terpeast]

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. 

We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with.

And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall. 

[WxUSAF]

Two things have consistently diminished from the long to short range over the last 4 months: big rain events and big torches. Will early December finally have both? I guess we’ll see.

[NorthArlington101]

The realistic bar for a successful December these days is a seasonable Christmas and a 1-3”er at some point. Once we start stringing a few of those together we can be ledge jumping on Nov. 22nd because a few LR ens runs don’t look as good as they used to 

[Benjamn3]

I think a lot of people jumping this early, is due to the trauma of wearing gym clothes to Christmas events some years. I just hope for seasonable in Dec, anything more is gravy. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

46 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

wearing gym clothes to Christmas events some years.

I mean Christmas 2015 was in the 70s and we all know what happened a month later.

[simbasad2]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. 

We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with.

And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall. 

I think people often forget that the beginning half of December is climatologically unfavorable for snow for the Mid-Atlantic

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, simbasad2 said:

I think people often forget that the beginning half of December is climatologically unfavorable for snow for the Mid-Atlantic

Also there have been loads of times where once a crap pattern is established it persists for the remainder of winter.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Also there have been loads of times where once a crap pattern is established it persists for the remainder of winter.

This isn’t true. For every example a pattern started in dec and persisted, I can come up with a few counter examples when the pattern changed in January. 

[aldie 22]

You guys are dumb

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This isn’t true. For every example a pattern started in dec and persisted, I can come up with a few counter examples when the pattern changed in January. 

All those times were cold decembers that changed to torches in january that persisted for the remainder of the season.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

All those times were cold decembers that changed to torches in january that persisted for the remainder of the season.

 

50 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean Christmas 2015 was in the 70s and we all know what happened a month later.

 

[katabatic]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. 

We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with.

And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall. 

I did jump but I'd hardly call it a ledge at one or two inches high which, coincidentally, is the most snow anyone will see this winter. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

 

I said loads of times, not every time.

[simbasad2]

21 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Also there have been loads of times where once a crap pattern is established it persists for the remainder of winter.

All the signs in the world point to this not being the case this winter

[simbasad2]

23 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Also there have been loads of times where once a crap pattern is established it persists for the remainder of winter.

Also this is a vibeology thing more than a meteorology thing. A torchy 576dm ridge in the first week of December does not change the probability of a good pattern setting up at the end of December. The only reason this *would* be the case is if subseasonal and seasonal patterns were unfavorable which they won't be for Dec 2025.