November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, katabatic said:

They always tell employees Thanksgiving weekend, obviously with the caveat of conditions permitting. We all know that's not realistic. It's generally mid December but I'm not seeing how that will be possible this year. Or if they can manage to get the guns fired up, it'll be very limited operations. As anyone around here knows, you qualify every forecast statement with the asterisk "I could be wrong". I hope I get frostbite from a stinging blizzard over and over...but the overall setup we are all staring at is one of a warm and dry winter. 

Yup. We've really devolved into a winter climate more akin to Georgia or South Carolina.

[mitchnick]

59 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Overnight GFS showing a rapid strengthening of the polar vortex after this episode. Yikes.

 

It takes it to a hair over the mean during the first week of January. What's the big deal? More normal presented as sensational on the internet. 

[poolz1]

The quick rebound of the PV was forecasted weeks ago when the Euro Ext was first showing signs that there may be a reversal. I recall noting that before the end of the forecast period it appeared to rebound to around normal.  Not sure how much this really matters tho.  MJO possibly in 8-1 and a normal PV strength.   

[Terpeast]

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. 

We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with.

And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall. 

[WxUSAF]

Two things have consistently diminished from the long to short range over the last 4 months: big rain events and big torches. Will early December finally have both? I guess we’ll see.

[NorthArlington101]

The realistic bar for a successful December these days is a seasonable Christmas and a 1-3”er at some point. Once we start stringing a few of those together we can be ledge jumping on Nov. 22nd because a few LR ens runs don’t look as good as they used to 

[Benjamn3]

I think a lot of people jumping this early, is due to the trauma of wearing gym clothes to Christmas events some years. I just hope for seasonable in Dec, anything more is gravy. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

46 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

wearing gym clothes to Christmas events some years.

I mean Christmas 2015 was in the 70s and we all know what happened a month later.