November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Oh

 

 

[katabatic]

2 hours ago, stormy said:

Usually Snowshoe being 1300 ft. higher than Davis is a favored spot. Quinwood 20 miles west/southwest  and 2000 ft. lower than Snowshoe's 6 inches  reported 9 inches. Weird.    Upslope didn't work exactly right this time around.

Yes, this was weird. I'm beginning my 4th winter in Garrett County and I've found that the Davis 3SE observer consistently gets 50% more snow than I do. I get 5...he gets 7-8, I get 4, he gets 6 and so forth. For me to get under 3 and he reports 14 is highly unusual. I drove there this morning and as I gained altitude on Rte 90, it was like someone turned on a switch by the time I got to Tucker County. Davis is generally the winner in my area but to jackpot like this (hell, a day and a half ago, Tucker County didn't even have a WWA) made me scratch my head - and pout.

[Chris78]

Happy Hour GFS is back.

Kind of...

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Happy Hour GFS is back.

Kind of...

that November 18-20 storm has trended really south lol
end of the run was kinda cool as well
but it also showed flurries for the area tonight

 

lots of things to love 

[Weather Will]

Not sure where to ask this question ...but anyone have any intel. on whether the new Canadian PARA now on WB is a good model?  It will be interesting to see how it tracks storms this winter.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Not sure where to ask this question ...but anyone have any intel. on whether the new Canadian PARA now on WB is a good model?  It will be interesting to see how it tracks storms this winter.

As long as it shows lots of digital snow it's a great model. 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, katabatic said:

Yes, this was weird. I'm beginning my 4th winter in Garrett County and I've found that the Davis 3SE observer consistently gets 50% more snow than I do. I get 5...he gets 7-8, I get 4, he gets 6 and so forth. For me to get under 3 and he reports 14 is highly unusual. I drove there this morning and as I gained altitude on Rte 90, it was like someone turned on a switch by the time I got to Tucker County. Davis is generally the winner in my area but to jackpot like this (hell, a day and a half ago, Tucker County didn't even have a WWA) made me scratch my head - and pout.

Upslope is weird. From my adventures yesterday it seemed like some areas just kept getting bands while others didn’t for seemingly no elevation reason. Then it kept snowing all the way into VA without any clouds overhead on the drive back. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Happy Hour GFS is back.

Kind of...

Would get the northern crew on the board with a cartopper. Snowing at night in late November with decent cold air advection. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Upslope is weird. From my adventures yesterday it seemed like some areas just kept getting bands while others didn’t for seemingly no elevation reason. Then it kept snowing all the way into VA without any clouds overhead on the drive back. 

The blue sky snow is a weird phenomenon! I see it on the drive to and from Canaan valley during upslope as well.  Usually around like 1/2 way to the hill to the ridge. 

[winter_warlock]

 06z GFS still has the  Nov 18-20 event. Doesn't look like anything big but Something interesting to watch

 

[nw baltimore wx]

That looks like an early version of our December 5th clippers from year’s past.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

 06z GFS still has the  Nov 18-20 event. Doesn't look like anything big but Something interesting to watch

 

SE trend, where are you?

[frd]

[wxdude64]

19 hours ago, stormy said:

Usually Snowshoe being 1300 ft. higher than Davis is a favored spot. Quinwood 20 miles west/southwest  and 2000 ft. lower than Snowshoe's 6 inches  reported 9 inches. Weird.    Upslope didn't work exactly right this time around.

Being that my grandparents lived in Rainelle or Quinwood for 40 years I feel I can throw a 'shade' of light on this. Rt 20 from Bellwood to Nettie either sits on or is JUST east of the first large ridge and then drop with the upslope. A LOT of squeezing of moisture happens there. I've seen 4" in Rainelle, 10" in Quinwood and a trace in Sam Black Church from the same event. There is a small place called Hines that was a cut-off (especially in marginal set-ups) where I've witnessed literally a line in/on Rt 60 for snow to dry several times. Snowshoe and Canaan have at least one decent ridge and fall into a valley before climbing again, especially with a more W or WNW wind. Thanksgiving and Christmas were ALWAYS a joy when I was younger, it meant a 90% chance of white on the ground. One Christmas we almost didn't make it, and the snow was as deep as the mailboxes! (that was in Quinwood) I think further northeast towards 'Shoe and Canaan they need a slightly different wind direction to get the really big snows and beat the Quinwood area. A NW to WNW wind seems to favor Quinwood, a NW/NNW seems to favor 'Shoe and north. 

[midatlanticweather]

2 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

 06z GFS still has the  Nov 18-20 event. Doesn't look like anything big but Something interesting to watch

 

 

Moisture is evaporating on runs and placement does seem to be further south. 

 

[stormy]

39 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Being that my grandparents lived in Rainelle or Quinwood for 40 years I feel I can throw a 'shade' of light on this. Rt 20 from Bellwood to Nettie either sits on or is JUST east of the first large ridge and then drop with the upslope. A LOT of squeezing of moisture happens there. I've seen 4" in Rainelle, 10" in Quinwood and a trace in Sam Black Church from the same event. There is a small place called Hines that was a cut-off (especially in marginal set-ups) where I've witnessed literally a line in/on Rt 60 for snow to dry several times. Snowshoe and Canaan have at least one decent ridge and fall into a valley before climbing again, especially with a more W or WNW wind. Thanksgiving and Christmas were ALWAYS a joy when I was younger, it meant a 90% chance of white on the ground. One Christmas we almost didn't make it, and the snow was as deep as the mailboxes! (that was in Quinwood) I think further northeast towards 'Shoe and Canaan they need a slightly different wind direction to get the really big snows and beat the Quinwood area. A NW to WNW wind seems to favor Quinwood, a NW/NNW seems to favor 'Shoe and north. 

Thanks for all this information!.   Nothing like true eyewitness accounting!!

I live too far east for lake effect upslope. My area is downslope for west or northwest winds. We do well with southern systems or noreaasters, being upslope for those.

My first experience with lake effect upslope was late October of 1968. I drove from a partly sunny 53 degrees at Harrisonburg to pouring snow and 26 degrees at the summit of Spruce Knob with 4 - 6 inches acc. and drifting.

Many times during the 70's and 80's, when I wanted lake effect, I drove to the state line on Rt. 250 which is the highest elevation of any primary highway in Virginia at 4332 ft..  The old timers at Monterey have told me that legend has snow flurries falling there in July many years ago.  People who have never experienced lake effect snow have no idea how much difference can exist 50 or 60 miles northwest of Staunton or Harrisonburg on an invading northwest wind, especially late fall and early winter when the waters of Erie or Michigan are still warm.   Truly, another world.

[WxUSAF]

22 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

39/50 is impressive.

 

41 today 

[scope1]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

SE trend, where are you?

South trend came 12z GFS but now it’s too far south and all rain central/southern VA

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

41 today 

82%. Nice.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

On 11/10/2025 at 11:21 PM, Yeoman said:

https://8-ball-magic.com/index.php#anchor

Maybe, Kammerer is right 

[Eskimo Joe]

^-5° for Jan would be legit cold

[bncho]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^-5° for Jan would be legit cold

twice as cold as last January.... maybe 2014 level?

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

twice as cold as last January.... maybe 2014 level?

Congrats Atlanta?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Congrats Atlanta?

WeatherBell CFS maps are also a little bit gimmicky. TT shows a much different outcome.