Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

[dan11295]

Looks like Savanna la Mar might get into the western eyewall with this continued north movement.

[Superstorm]

 

Looking at a fat guy sipping coffee


.

[RU848789]

There's likely going to essentially be a 30 mile wide path (where the Cat 4/5 winds are - very compact system) across the island which is essentially being hit by an EF3 tornado (136-165 mph winds) with near total destruction of many structures and many to most trees downed. Those tin shacks will all be gone along with anyone who stayed in one, sadly. The EF3 damage description is: "Severe damage; entire stories of well-built homes destroyed, large buildings severely damaged, trains overturned." And some areas, especially at elevations above 500' (large parts of Jamaica in the path of the storm) will experience an EF-4 level tornado.

The one saving grace if there is one, is that the storm is so compact, so at least the winds won't be a major issue more than about 30-40 miles from the storm's center, as hurricane force winds only extend 30 miles from the center (except maybe for areas over 500-1000 feet where winds will be maybe 20-30% greater than at sea level).   But as the experts have said many times, the torrential flooding rains and mudslides will be an issue nearly everywhere on the island and the 9-13' storm surge is catastrophic right now for most of the south coast.  

Also, the track is going to be over a sparsely populated area - just imagine the devastation if this hit 50-60 miles east in Kingston, the nation's capital with ~600K people.

[eyewall]

Yeah looking at it if Josh is still in Crawford he is at least getting the eastern eye now.

 

[Newman]

The dropsonde with the crazy winds came from the South/Southeast eyewall, the backside winds are going to be equally as intense

[hawkeye_wx]

Given some slight degradation on satellite, I don't think this will be still be sub-900 when the center of the eye crosses the coast.  

[olafminesaw]

The center of the eye is likely to pass very close to White house (maybe just East)

[LP08]

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah looking at it if Josh is still in Crawford he is at least getting the eastern eye now.

 

https://twitter.com/meteometeorito/status/1983207397943312587

[cptcatz]

Looks like White House should have clear skies right now. Crawford may be just inside the eye right now. Hopefully Josh can have a few minutes of sunshine to go outside and document. 

[WxWatcher007]

Landfall appears imminent. 

 

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Given some slight degradation on satellite, I don't think this will be still be sub-900 when the center of the eye crosses the coast.  

That TC report is already highly anticipated. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Landfall appears imminent. 

 

That TC report is already highly anticipated. 

So landfall is only official once the entire eye is onshore?

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

https://twitter.com/meteometeorito/status/1983207397943312587

Sooo close. He experienced the max winds that's for sure. Start to be concerned about surge in his location. The caveat is that satellite is a little off from reality based on the curvature of the earth I believe 

[wthrmn654]

[ATDoel]

11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

There's likely going to essentially be a 30 mile wide path (where the Cat 4/5 winds are - very compact system) across the island which is essentially being hit by an EF3 tornado (136-165 mph winds) with near total destruction of many structures and many to most trees downed. Those tin shacks will all be gone along with anyone who stayed in one, sadly. The EF3 damage description is: "Severe damage; entire stories of well-built homes destroyed, large buildings severely damaged, trains overturned." And some areas, especially at elevations above 500' (large parts of Jamaica in the path of the storm) will experience an EF-4 level tornado.

The one saving grace if there is one, is that the storm is so compact, so at least the winds won't be a major issue more than about 30-40 miles from the storm's center, as hurricane force winds only extend 30 miles from the center (except maybe for areas over 500-1000 feet where winds will be maybe 20-30% greater than at sea level).   But as the experts have said many times, the torrential flooding rains and mudslides will be an issue nearly everywhere on the island and the 9-13' storm surge is catastrophic right now for most of the south coast.  

Also, the track is going to be over a sparsely populated area - just imagine the devastation if this hit 50-60 miles east in Kingston, the nation's capital with ~600K people.

Wind damage from a hurricane is no where near as extreme as wind damage from a tornado, with similar wind speeds.  They aren't comparable.  Most structures outside of the surge zone will survive this hurricane to some extent, it may just be the walls standing but they'll be there, unlike an EF4 tornado that slabs almost everything.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

There will obviously be wind and water damage there, but Kingston, Old Harbor etc have dodged a canon shell of potential destruction.  Great news for the population centers.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So landfall is only official once the entire eye is onshore?

It's the center of the eye crossing land that determines landfall. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like Back River is the winner.

[gallopinggertie]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There will obviously be wind and water damage there, but Kingston, Old Harbor etc have dodged a canon shell of potential destruction.  Great news for the population centers.

Yep. Although it will still be quite bad in Montego Bay, which is the second largest city, the worst case would have been a landfall at Kingston. 

[wthrmn654]

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

Wind damage from a hurricane is no where near as extreme as wind damage from a tornado, with similar wind speeds.  They aren't comparable.  Most structures outside of the surge zone will survive this hurricane to some extent, it may just be the walls standing but they'll be there, unlike an EF4 tornado that slabs almost everything.

What is the physical basis for a hurricane wind of 190 mph being significantly less destructive than a tornado wind of 190 mph?

[NeonPeon]

Just now, cbmclean said:

What is the physical basis for a hurricane wind of 190 mph being significantly less destructive than a tornado wind of 190 mph?

Straight line winds.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said:

Yep. Although it will still be quite bad in Montego Bay, which is the second largest city, the worst case would have been a landfall at Kingston. 

OK, I didn’t realize Montego Bay was that big of a population center.  It’s going to be pretty hairy there for a few hours.

[gallopinggertie]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

OK, I didn’t realize Montego Bay was that big of a population center.  It’s going to be pretty hairy there for a few hours.

Yeah there are a couple hundred thousand people in that area (a few times less than around Kingston). It could easily be their worst hurricane in the modern era.

https://www.tomforth.co.uk/circlepopulations/

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

OK, I didn’t realize Montego Bay was that big of a population center.  It’s going to be pretty hairy there for a few hours.

I think this track is not good for them. When this passes W to WSW winds may pile the water into the city. Not to mention the eyewall over them. 

[olafminesaw]

If we go off the assumption that the 11 am center fix from NHC is correct, it tracked a hair East of what satellite is showing. Also a close up of where the line is

[BlizzardNole]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

OK, I didn’t realize Montego Bay was that big of a population center.  It’s going to be pretty hairy there for a few hours.

Yeah that path looks bad for that area

[RU848789]

14 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

Wind damage from a hurricane is no where near as extreme as wind damage from a tornado, with similar wind speeds.  They aren't comparable.  Most structures outside of the surge zone will survive this hurricane to some extent, it may just be the walls standing but they'll be there, unlike an EF4 tornado that slabs almost everything.

Wind is wind.  Have you seen the swath of destruction from Andrew?  I also accounted a bit for winds on land being less than over water at the surface (due to boundary layer frictional effects) by saying EF3 (136-165 mph) for most, not the 185 mph sustained winds over water right now.  Plus, winds will be even greater above 500'.  

[wthrmn654]

Quite a lot of houses in that one area. And it's about ground zero although there weather must be quite lovely at this very moment in the eye. 

[MonumentalNole]

26 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

There's likely going to essentially be a 30 mile wide path (where the Cat 4/5 winds are - very compact system) across the island which is essentially being hit by an EF3 tornado (136-165 mph winds) with near total destruction of many structures and many to most trees downed. Those tin shacks will all be gone along with anyone who stayed in one, sadly. The EF3 damage description is: "Severe damage; entire stories of well-built homes destroyed, large buildings severely damaged, trains overturned." And some areas, especially at elevations above 500' (large parts of Jamaica in the path of the storm) will experience an EF-4 level tornado.

The one saving grace if there is one, is that the storm is so compact, so at least the winds won't be a major issue more than about 30-40 miles from the storm's center, as hurricane force winds only extend 30 miles from the center (except maybe for areas over 500-1000 feet where winds will be maybe 20-30% greater than at sea level).   But as the experts have said many times, the torrential flooding rains and mudslides will be an issue nearly everywhere on the island and the 9-13' storm surge is catastrophic right now for most of the south coast.  

Also, the track is going to be over a sparsely populated area - just imagine the devastation if this hit 50-60 miles east in Kingston, the nation's capital with ~600K people.

60 mile wide path*

[TheSnowman]

Finally get to talk in more of my area of expertise, Hurricanes.  This is Astonishing.  ASTONISHING!  It stayed AT Category 5 Level for Days, and Now, after sitting at 902-906mb for a day, STRENGTHENS to 892!?  Not far from Godly Wilma?? 

And I don't think people understand this - YES, there have been 19, now 20, Category 5 Landfalls.  

 

BUT

 

No Storm, Not Camille, Not the Labor Day of 1935, Not Allen, Not Andrew, Not Michael - Has ever OFFICIALLY Recoded Category 5 Sustained Winds in a Landfall Before.  So TECHNICALLY, There has NEVER BEEN a Category 5 Landfall.  THIS may be it.  

 

The Record btw for Landfalling Pressure - 892.  1935 Labor Day, which Also was 185mph as this is.