hawkeye_wx Posted yesterday at 12:08 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:08 AM 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: It almost looks stationary the last few frames. It hasn't moved in the last 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM Jesus those tops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted yesterday at 12:18 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:18 AM 8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It hasn't moved in the last 90 minutes. is it stationary because something of an equilibrium has been (temporarily) reached between the competing steering flows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AStorms13 Posted yesterday at 12:22 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:22 AM Screenshot of new cone on Radar Omega. Not updating on other sites for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted yesterday at 12:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:24 AM Here we go Jamaica. Hit a wall, expect N/NNE turn shortly. Also the best its ever looked on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted yesterday at 12:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:30 AM 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Here we go Jamaica. Hit a wall, expect N/NNE turn shortly. Also the best its ever looked on satellite. Certainly looks like it. Let's see if this is the beginning of a change towards a north/north east move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted yesterday at 12:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:31 AM Looks like tidbits is having issues. Server overload it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted yesterday at 12:36 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:36 AM 12 minutes ago, AStorms13 said: Screenshot of new cone on Radar Omega. Not updating on other sites for some reason . It isn't updating because there isn't a new cone.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted yesterday at 12:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:37 AM 6 minutes ago, Nibor said: Certainly looks like it. Let's see if this is the beginning of a change towards a north/north east move. Look at the symmetry. It's got to be strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 12:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:39 AM 1 minute ago, MarkO said: Look at the symmetry. It's got to be strengthening. It’s the best its looked yet. Unreal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM 9 minutes ago, Nibor said: Certainly looks like it. Let's see if this is the beginning of a change towards a north/north east move. Insane symmetry and cold tops. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 12:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:41 AM 17 minutes ago, Scott747 said: It isn't updating because there isn't a new cone.... Right for those lurking/not familiar with tropical—the intermediate advisories do not have a cone change. That happens at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm ET when the full advisory is issued. That’s also when we get the technical discussions. In addition, the width of the cone is based strictly on historical track error, which is defined before the season. What you’re seeing tonight is not uncommon at all for imminent coastal threats, especially powerful ones. They can drift/meander/wobble. The best way to track the longer term motion is to use radar and recon center fixes. All the way until landfall. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted yesterday at 12:42 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:42 AM Past ~30ish hours of just a wobbling crawl. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted yesterday at 12:44 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:44 AM 42 minutes ago, MDSnow93 said: They widened the cone significantly. Much more room off the west coast, and pretty much to the eastern edge. The 5 pm and 8 pm NHC cones are identical, as they usually are, as I don't recall them ever updating those maps for the intermediate advisories. Files too large to paste here, which surprises me. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/MELISSA_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_with_line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted yesterday at 12:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:46 AM Latest Google track 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted yesterday at 12:50 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:50 AM Not sure how much lower pressure the atmosphere can support down there. Assuming it can go close to 900mb. Just a sick setup. The depth of the warm water in that area is always off the chart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted yesterday at 12:51 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:51 AM 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Right for those lurking/not familiar with tropical—the intermediate advisories do not have a cone change. That happens at 11am and 5pm ET when the full advisory is issued. That’s also when we get the technical discussions. In addition, the width of the cone is based strictly on historical track error, which is defined before the season. What you’re seeing tonight is not uncommon at all for imminent coastal threats, especially powerful ones. They can drift/meander/wobble. The best way to track the longer term motion is to use radar and recon center fixes. All the way until landfall. And the 5am and 11pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 12:53 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:53 AM 2 minutes ago, cptcatz said: And the 5am and 11pm Thanks, fixed. My bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted yesterday at 12:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:58 AM Both recon flights on first pass have lowest pressure at 910 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted yesterday at 01:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:02 AM Seems to be pretty steady state despite a very impressive IR appearance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted yesterday at 01:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:05 AM I would think the eye would have to contract to get a lower pressure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted yesterday at 01:09 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:09 AM Look at the radar. heavy rain has been pounding most the island for the past 6 hours. Precip echos surrounding the eye seemed a bit less intense on the radar loop during the last 2-3 hours. Don't know if there is some attenuation involved since Melissa obviously still has great IR presentation. Not sure how long we will have access to radar once the storm moves closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted yesterday at 01:12 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:12 AM That's a really good looking eye. Anyone in there is fucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted yesterday at 01:13 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:13 AM 25 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Latest Google track Brutal for Montego Bay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted yesterday at 01:17 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:17 AM 11230 1632N 07836W 6972 02308 9028 +223 +126 025015 020 016 002 00 902.8 mb extrap Wonder if thats a bit low though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted yesterday at 01:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:24 AM Oh man…waiting for drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted yesterday at 01:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:26 AM Final intensification burst tonight. About to go sub 900mbs One of the craziest satellite images I've ever seen in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted yesterday at 01:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:26 AM 14 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: That's a really good looking eye. Anyone in there is fucked. Hurricane Josh is in Jamaica shooting for another eyewall penetration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted yesterday at 01:28 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:28 AM NOAA got a 912, 910 and a 907 on its three penetrations. Awaiting word from the AF plane on its second pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted yesterday at 01:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:31 AM 1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said: NOAA got a 912, 910 and a 907 on its three penetrations. Awaiting word from the AF plane on its second pass. What's the difference between these and the extrapolated pressures? How do they derive the extrapolated pressures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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