Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[Chrisrotary12]

How far into this month can I get into this month without turning the heat on?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

No one bites at the nonsense anymore. Must be discouraging.

You just did

[CoastalWx]

Wind really picked up. Another NE wind push of cold. Modeled too.

[CoastalWx]

Won’t get cold here though with this wind off the water. 

[powderfreak]

Into the 30s before 10pm… it is October after all.

Radiators mounting up as it’s 38F at 750ft and 46F above 1,200ft.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Radiational cooling a bit meh tonight so plants should be fine in most of W MA. 

I'm looking forward to the warm, dry weekend!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Longer modeled pattern projects pretty dry...      

[ineedsnow]

Patchy frost this morning.. down to 36

[512high]

Shop Davis station hit 39 /home 40, love this weather.

[mreaves]

31.6°

[jsw]

Air 31F, dewpoint 31F at 6am.

NWS forecast high is 61F, perfect weather for working outside!

BTW, I just got a solid lead on a very nice apartment here in Brattleboro, so move to Northampton is on hold indefinitely. It was getting a bit complicated anyway, may as well keep it simple...

 

[UnitedWx]

Low of 41 in Westfield this A.M. These temps had my husband racing around bringing plants into the house last night... it's like a nursery now

[CoastalWx]

Breezy all night and 50

[CoastalWx]

Man what a torch coming up. 

[powderfreak]

Frozen solid this morning with 5+ hours at or below freezing.

30F.

[WxWatcher007]

Low of 41.7 here at WXW1

[Typhoon Tip]

36

fantastic drainage decoupling night.   1K ORH never lower than 44.  Big ranges...    "fake" cold as the locals often play it

[alex]

25.3 this morning, coldest of the season 

[Typhoon Tip]

While it's certainly enough to delay any affectation of seasonal change ... I'm not seeing that the 850 mb/lower thickness intervals as being very excessive - relative to climo. 

It seems the models are trying to pack most of this late heat spell into the 500 mb heights.  Sometimes I wonder if the modelers put coefficient muting factors into the framework. Control run-away excessive scenarios from taking off.  Like "synergy" blockers. - just sarcasm.   Whatever it is, the 500 mb non-hydrostatic impression alone looks straight up like a streak of days hosting record breaking temperatures... But, the lower troposphere is being held too cool to realize that.

In 2020 ( and I think last year too - ), we saw 80F in the first two weeks of November.  It's not too late to cook up some heat.  Things have to be ideal though this late.

[Spanks45]

Frosty, 35.2⁰...kids are already asking when it is time to start the first fire...lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh, I see what's going on.   It's the same modeling phenomenon I've been noticing happening during JJA/summers lately for that matter.

Guidance et al have this tendency to anchor and stall the surface high pressure right on top of us.  Meanwhile +2 or more sigma 500 mb ridges roll over the top...  Getting a Bermuda surface ridging actually S of our latitude seems to be a difficult feat by modeling nowadays - at that charm to the climate change till I guess...

But the idiosyncratic limitation on heat then kicks in because high right on top, stops proficient mixing. The models don't seem to like doing it from just diurnal overturning alone - they like to have some sort of WSW gradient actively doing the mixing for them.

That's probably why we see all the current 80+F prognostic 2-meter temperatures stuck back in the Great Lakes.

[Damage In Tolland]

All joking aside . I wonder who will hit 90? BDL, Norwood, MHT maybe? Someone will 

[dendrite]

37.0° with some frozen dew

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

37.0° with some frozen dew

yeah, this description ^ is more so here.  I called it frost, but it wasn't the direct crystal condensation variety.  The dew on the car tops froze aoa 36.  No evidence of grass/ground coverage.   Very marginal. 

So I guess this was the nadir, now we go hugely the other way.   If the high really does anchor right on top like the guidance pin then the nights may decouple and favor cold in New England at nights relative to the total synoptics of the GL/OV/NE region.  Big diurnals, with some weighting down of afternoon readings.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

I saw frost on some rooftops.  

[CT Valley Snowman]

Low of 39.4.  Looks like 4 days of low 80's around this neck of the woods Saturday-Tuesday.  

[weatherwiz]

54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

While it's certainly enough to delay any affectation of seasonal change ... I'm not seeing that the 850 mb/lower thickness intervals as being very excessive - relative to climo. 

It seems the models are trying to pack most of this late heat spell into the 500 mb heights.  Sometimes I wonder if the modelers put coefficient muting factors into the framework. Control run-away excessive scenarios from taking off.  Like "synergy" blockers. - just sarcasm.   Whatever it is, the 500 mb non-hydrostatic impression alone looks straight up like a streak of days hosting record breaking temperatures... But, the lower troposphere is being held too cool to realize that.

In 2020 ( and I think last year too - ), we saw 80F in the first two weeks of November.  It's not too late to cook up some heat.  Things have to be ideal though this late.

I was just thinking, is it me or does it seem like the hemisphere as a whole, particularly Arctic latitudes, is very slow to begin the seasonal transition...or maybe its just a bit too early? This next part is better suited for the ENSO thread, but I don't feel good about our prospects for the winter. I guess maybe I'll go throw those thoughts in there shortly. 

[tamarack]

29 and frosty this morning, tied with 9/21 for season's coolest.  Cat lying in front of the woodstove.