Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[TheMainer]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you realize you just doomed not only this year, but probably the next 6 of them due to your declaration - nice goin'

The Grinch is insatiable, it'll probably be one of those straight south north runners where Dryslot West is snow and us east is rain through the maritimes 

4 hours ago, tamarack said:

I record snow depth at 9 PM, and have had bare ground at that hour of Christmas night four times in 27 years - 1999, 2006, 2015 and 2020.  On that last date, my 7 AM report for cocorahs was a fast-disappearing 2", as we had moderate RA and near 50 at report time.  The 54/43 temps were +28, the greatest AN for any day since moving here in 1998.  (2nd is +27 on 3/22/2012.) 

We somehow didn't lose all our snow on Christmas of 2020, but did most of it. We got a small storm a few days later which was enough to go and scout out logging damage on the North end of our trail system by snowmobile, though it was boney. 

[Snowedin]

Pretty breezy out there tonight! Sadly any rain or appreciable moisture will have to wait a while longer.

[512high]

Hello October ! Jeez, another month flew by... low 47F feels great! 

[CoastalWx]

Windy this morning. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/29/2025 at 12:05 PM, CoastalWx said:

Could be Mowvember to start?

I don't think so.

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think so.

I'm fine with Mowvember until mid month or so. Afterwards, time to flip the script.

[Damage In Tolland]

Maybe I’ll hit 42 tonight 

[Typhoon Tip]

Man, check out MEX machine numbers.   They're over +15 ..approaching +20 at a D5 range.  

It's getting easier to do that now that we're into October ( +15 on July 20th is about 108 F haha), but still... MEX is weighted by climatology the farther out in time.  By any D5, there's a significant amount of negative weight there - unless they've changed that product derivative/philosophy...  But these numbers in the 00z run are up into the low to mid 80s from BDL to ASH on Sunday.  Upper 70s to low 80s beginning Saturday thru mid next week, otherwise.  The subtext to this being ... if removing the climate weighting, what's the "real" potential here.   I gotta figure it's not a lot higher though - not sure the sun is up to the task this late in the year.  What's the ceiling?

This reminds me of the November balm that took place in 2020, when for 4 or so days there were 50 F lows followed by 80+F highs. I figure for that + maybe 4 to 6 degrees?

 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man, check out MEX machine numbers.   They're over +15 ..approaching +20 at a D5 range.  

It's getting easier to do that now that we're into October ( +15 on July 20th is about 108 F haha), but still... MEX is weighted by climatology the farther out in time.  By any D5, there's a significant amount of negative weight there - unless they've changed that product derivative/philosophy...  But these numbers in the 00z run are the low to mid 80s from BDL to ASH on Sunday.  Upper 70s to low 80s beginning Saturday thru mid next week, otherwise.  

This reminds me of the November balm that took place in 2020, when for 4 or so days there were 50 F lows followed by 80+F highs. 

 

Sunday has a very warm look for the interior...could def see some 85-86F in the typical hot spots. Looks quite warm for the foreseeable future too as a whole (outside of the brief, cool shot) with some big daily departures. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm fine with Mowvember until mid month or so. Afterwards, time to flip the script.

Some signs of a flip in the latter third or so of this month.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some signs of a flip in the latter third or so of this month.

I think out west and into the Plains may see some decent shots. Maybe some spills east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think out west and into the Plains may see some decent shots. Maybe some spills east.

Well, that is a flip from 86F...not saying it's gonna snow lol

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that is a flip from 86F...not saying it's gonna snow lol

Yeah fair enough. Looks like early next week is probably the last of the true 80s. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Will be some 90 degree readings 

[SouthCoastMA]

We would take this onshore flow in December/January

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

at a glance we're frosting in the interior in SNE's climo cold spots dunnite.   should have no issues decoupling with DPs in the 35-40 range under gaping wound heat hemorrhaging sky.  

not sure if the DPs do that 7 pm bounce back

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

at a glance we're frosting in the interior in SNE's climo cold spots dunnite.   should have no issues decoupling with DPs in the 35-40 range under gaping wound heat hemorrhaging sky.  

not sure if the DPs do that 7 pm bounce back

Any idea when we might shift to a more autumnal pattern? It's disturbing to see the sea of orange and red on the ensembles right into mid month. Why does this happen every October?

[WxWatcher007]

Eventually we’ll be back?

[metagraphica]

64/42  You can tell the weather is boring as f*ck. The monthly pinned thread hasn't even been changed yet.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, metagraphica said:

64/42  You can tell the weather is boring as f*ck. The monthly pinned thread hasn't even been changed yet.

Dendrite asleep at the wheel.

[kdxken]

10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will be some 90 degree readings 

No one bites at the nonsense anymore. Must be discouraging.

[Brewbeer]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

No one bites at the nonsense anymore. Must be discouraging.

telling the tale is the story teller's objective

[WxWatcher007]

lol I posted that image not even seeing that snow hole down in @Baroclinic Zone land. My bad.  

[Chrisrotary12]

How far into this month can I get into this month without turning the heat on?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

No one bites at the nonsense anymore. Must be discouraging.

You just did

[CoastalWx]

Wind really picked up. Another NE wind push of cold. Modeled too.

[CoastalWx]

Won’t get cold here though with this wind off the water. 

[powderfreak]

Into the 30s before 10pm… it is October after all.

Radiators mounting up as it’s 38F at 750ft and 46F above 1,200ft.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Radiational cooling a bit meh tonight so plants should be fine in most of W MA. 

I'm looking forward to the warm, dry weekend!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Longer modeled pattern projects pretty dry...