September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[bluewave]

Same summer pattern with heaviest rains staying just inland from the coast with .39 here.

 

[Tatamy]

Total yesterday here was 2.35”.  Nice overperformer.

[wdrag]

Final at Wantage NJ 4sw: 2.68". mostly 520P/4-1255A/5. Ambient (AWN) slightly higher at 2.77 but surprisingly close. Walt 730A. Sept 5, 2025

 

First event had .56" at CP. Other climate site info attached fm NJ, NYS and CoCoRaHs attached.

 

Also attached the woeful BOM 113 hours in advance...  PLEASE use the Blend of Models as a starting point but not as gospel.  NWS I think starts with this and then decides whether to make changes.  The next session of BOM finally got it better.  Have to be careful relying on BOM. 

 

This pattern had the signals back in late August as in p1 of this Sept post including the CPC 6-10D and my 8/27 ensemble anticipation. 

 

Need to use ensembles... realizing that in CONVECTION--- the ensemble avg bleeds outward from the max axis... ensembling globals is not as accurate as mesoscale. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[wdrag]

Added August final USA temp and qpf departures to p1 of August (Sept 5 2025 posting). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[wdrag]

It seems that a FFA may be needed for the I95 corridor tomorrow afternoon-night, or possibly a little west of, despite the still normal or below normal stream flows.  

Presuming the NWS, which tends to be conservative and does not issue a FFA, then it wont surprise if an isolated FFW or two will be needed. PWAT larger than last night. Instability etc. 

Kids, they should not be playing along side streams in NNJ this morning or late Sat.

 

All SPC HREF leading up to last nights event... POOR.

 

Finally: midweek event for Tue night or Wed along the coasts is still in play but not counting on it.  Need to focus on 16z Sat-16z Sunday.

 

 

[Picard]

1.12" in the tube last night with round one around 6:30 and again around 10:30.  Lots of thunder and flashes too.  Nice over-performance even though areas around got a lot more.  Better yet that it came in two waves and not all at once.  I'll take it.  

[STORMANLI]

O.24"

I dreamt I measured 1.61" and  thinking nobody will believe it. But alas it was not so. Did help the garden though. Nice to get another 1/2 inch by Sunday.

[psv88]

0.35, better than nothing I guess 

[Dark Star]

13 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Question, and because I don’t have a clue:  why do we say warm waters =  increased hurricane activity?  Don’t we need a temp delta to generate storms, regardless of a ‘warm’ state?  Meaning - warm, normal, or cold, isn’t a big air/water temp delta the driver?  Is that true?  Hurricane seasonal forecasts have not been great over the last 25 years IIRC. 

Dunno.  Most TDs form coming off the coast of Africa.  Depending on conditions as they cross the Atlantic, they begin to deepen.  I know once a Tropical storm is formed, they can explode when they hit warmer waters, in the Caribbean and Gulf.  It would be simplistic to say that just because the Western Atlantic is warmer than normal that we will have more Tropical systems, but it would be a decent (somewhat blind) guess?

[jm1220]

0.5” or so. Whatever helps. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Lots of brown/gray dirty stuff showing up aloft on satellite across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. I guess this is smoke from somewhere?

[SACRUS]

 

71 /67  with some clouds moving through all making a harder stint for any of the hotter spots to touch 90 (since Aug 17).  Otherwise, its warm / humid mid- upper 80s with scattered storms later and a similar progression on Saturday before drying out and cooling off a bit by Sunday.   Overall warmer than normal period but onshore flow, may see some rain push in from the E Tue/Wed.  Next shot at any heat would be Sep 10 - 12 period.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 95 (2023) 
NYC: 94 (1985) 
LGA: 93 (1985)
JFK: 94 (1961)


 

Lows:

EWR: 53 (2000)
NYC: 51 (1963)
LGA: 54 (2000)
JFK: 52 (1989)

Historical:

1925 - The temperature at Centerville, AL, soars to 112 degrees to establish a state record. Every reporting station in Alabama was 100 degrees or above that afternoon. (The Weather Channel)

1929: Early season snowfall occurred in the mountains of Wyoming and the Black Hills of South Dakota on September 5th and 6th. The highest snowfall amount was 16 inches in Fox Park, Wyoming.

1933 - A hurricane hit Brownsville, TX, killing forty persons and causing 12 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1933: A Category 3 hurricane made landfall on South Padre Island, Texas during the late evening hours on September 4th, or Labor Day. The storm caused 40 fatalities and nearly $17 million in damages. With the storm making landfall during a holiday weekend, fatalities could have been much higher. The following is from the report of the official in charge at Corpus Christi, Texas: "Probably never before in the history of Texas hurricanes have such widespread and early warnings been given as were received from Washington in advance of this one. The telegram of Saturday, September 2, warning all persons to avoid inaccessible places over the weekend probably saved thousands of lives."

1950 - Hurricane Easy produced the greatest 24 hour rainfall in U.S. weather records. The hurricane deluged Yankeetown, on the upper west coast of Florida, with 38.7 inches of rain. (David Ludlum)

1950: Hurricane Easy was an erratic and unpredictable hurricane that lingered over the Tampa Bay area for days, dropping torrential rains and causing damage especially in Cedar Key, Florida where the storm eventually made landfall. This hurricane dumped 38.7 inches of rain in 24 hours in Yankeetown, a record for the U.S. at the time, and caused $3.3 million in damage. Total rainfall amounts in Yankeetown was 45.20 inches.

1975 - Strong winds reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust resulting in a 22-car chain reaction accident on Interstate 10 near Toltec AZ. Two persons were killed, and 14 others were injured. (The Weather Channel)

1978: Tropical Depression Norman became the most recent tropical system to make landfall in California near Long Beach as an extra-tropical storm.

1987 - Thunderstorms over the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast States drenched Charleston, SC, with 5.50 inches of rain, and a total of 13.50 inches in two days, flooding homes, and leaving roads and bridges under water. (The National Weather Summary) A tropical storm which formed off the South Atlantic coast was responsible for torrential rains over coastal regions of South Carolina. Between the 30th of August and the 8th of September, Charleston SC received 18.44 inches of rain. The heavy rains caused extensive flooding around the city of Charleston, seriously damaged cotton crops in the eastern part of the state, and resulted in an unusually high number of mosquitos. (Storm Data)

1988 - Five days of heavy rain commenced in west central Florida. Up to 20 inches of rain in four days resulted in extensive urban flooding, and evacuation of 1000 homes. Flooding claimed four lives, and caused more than five million dollars proprty damage. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced six to ten inches of rain in south central Kansas between 6 AM and Noon. Serious flooding was reported around Wichita, with water four feet deep along some roads. A cold front crossing the Northern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 63 mph at Sheridan WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1996: Hurricane Fran made landfall near the tip of Cape Fear, North Carolina with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph on the evening of September 5th. Fran was responsible for 26 deaths and was at the time the most expensive natural disaster ever in North Carolina’s history.

2017: Hurricane Irma became a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph. This made Irma one of strongest hurricane ever observed in the open Atlantic Ocean.  

 

[wdrag]

More yesterday from the 531AM PNS PHI.  No PNSOKX on rainfall as of 948AM/5

 

...Sussex County...
Blue Mountain Lakes          3.14 in   0514 AM 09/05   RAWS                 
Stanhope                     2.40 in   0515 AM 09/05   AWS                  
4 WSW Wantage Twp            2.31 in   1040 PM 09/04   Trained Spotter      
1 SW Hopatcong               1.91 in   0518 AM 09/05   AWS                  
Montague                     1.88 in   0515 AM 09/05   CWOP                 
0.7 NE Flatbrookville        1.64 in   0500 AM 09/05   HADS                 
Wallkill River Nwr           1.49 in   0456 AM 09/05   RAWS                 
Sparta                       1.45 in   0520 AM 09/05   CWOP                 
Sussex                       1.30 in   0509 AM 09/05   ASOS                 
LAFAYETTE                    1.19 in   0520 AM 09/05   CWOP                 
Stockholm                    1.07 in   0513 AM 09/05   CWOP                 
2.3 N Stockholm              1.01 in   0445 AM 09/05   HADS                 

...Warren County...
Hackettstown                 3.10 in   0519 AM 09/05   AWS                  
Broadway                     2.49 in   0516 AM 09/05   CWOP                 
Phillipsburg                 2.00 in   0430 AM 09/05   COOP                 
Belvidere                    1.00 in   0515 AM 09/05   CWOP                 
 

[MANDA]

Did well in the rainfall department last 24 hours.  Total = 2.15".  Nice over performing rainfall event over a rather large area.

Very welcome rainfall!

[IrishRob17]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Did well in the rainfall department last 24 hour.  Total = 2.15".  Nice over performing rainfall event over a rather large area.

Very welcome rainfall!

Yeah, it was more than I expected. I haven't seen a statement yet this morning from the NJ Forest Fire Service but hopefully the fire got knocked down pretty good overnight. 

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr is a soaker for areas 95 east. But after last night's putrid performance who knows

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Lots of brown/gray dirty stuff showing up aloft on satellite across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. I guess this is smoke from somewhere?

 

 

[Stormlover74]

[wdrag]

On 9/3/2025 at 1:36 PM, RU848789 said:

Well, as can happen, it's now looking like a 1-day heatwave on Saturday with highs in the Philly area in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, so definitely summery, plus potential showers and t-storms just in time for our son's 4:30 pm wedding ceremony, which is planned to be outdoors (there is an indoor fallback).  Too bad he didn't pick Sunday like I recommended a year ago to avoid the conflict with the RU game on Saturday, lol.  As expected 4 days out the models are all over the place with regard to timing/location of storms and the NWS just has the usual chance of showers due to instability surrounding the frontal progression. Might be one of those "watch the radar and the sky" afternoons.  Any insights appreciated, thanks.  

Follow HRRR and plan accordingly.  It's going to rain at 430PM Saturday but where exactly is the wedding near PHI.  For now,  imo, the HRRR has been running a little slow on convection developing (certainly for this most recent event). For a number of reasons (AC - heat,/Thunder lightning wind threat), I'd advise indoors but that's your call. 

[Big Jims Videos]

got zip, zilch, nada last night, and expecting similar Saturday along the beach. 

[forkyfork]

52 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr is a soaker for areas 95 east. But after last night's putrid performance who knows

the other mesos came a little west. i think most of us will get a decent drink

[wdrag]

Other than the 12z/5 GGEM which looks pathetic against 12z/5 NAM, 06z/5 EC/EAAI,  there will be an additional 1/2-3" of rain 16z Sat-16z Sun in NJ/LI/se NYS/CT,, especially near the Hud River and I95 corridor.  You choose where.

Point Pleasant wont miss though hard to say how much there.   Too much backside vort after the initial squall line passes late Sat.  Should rain decently overnight Sat into daybreak Sunday. 

Pretty sharp cool down Sat night. 

Tue-Wed looking a little more likely for cool coastal rain. 

 

Back later today. 

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Sunday afternoon looks to possibly stay in the 60s

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Trending NW to favor NJ and the Hudson Valley again. Stunned I tell you!

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sunday afternoon looks to possibly stay in the 60s

especially if it ends up cloudy

[Brasiluvsnow]

we have a yard sale both days this weekend ugh,,,,,,,,hoping that the rain holds off Saturday until 4 pm or later but we shall see,,,,,and Sunday looks like it starts out wet and again we shall see ,,,,,fingers crossed here

[FPizz]

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sunday afternoon looks to possibly stay in the 60s

looking forward to wearing the hoodie again this t-shirt weather last few days is not my style..

[PhiEaglesfan712]

28 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

looking forward to wearing the hoodie again this t-shirt weather last few days is not my style..

This is as good as you're going to get at this time of year. Watch us have 100-degree heat at this time next year.