Hurricane Erin: 110 MPH - 958 mb - NW @ 7

[NJwx85]

Wow, naked swirl alert. The center is closed to getting exposed. No model had this getting sheared apart this badly.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Damn Erin looks like shit right now lol

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Damn Erin looks like shit right now lol

 

 

 

lopsided lmao erin just go to istanbul at this point

is she ever going to redeem herself from this crap or what

[Wannabehippie]

8:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 19
Location: 25.2°N 72.2°W
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

https://olorin.tropicaltidbits.com/satimages/goes19_ir_05L_202508191212_lat24.5-lon-71.8.jpg

[BarryStantonGBP]

6 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

lopsided lmao erin just go to istanbul at this point

is she ever going to redeem herself from this crap or what

path looks familiar

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_geps_latest.png

[NorthHillsWx]

I’ve gotta say I did not expect the system to get sheared apart to this degree. It looks like about 15-20kts of analyzed shear which certainly would be an inhibiting factor but shouldn’t be shredding it to the point that half the circulation is now exposed. There is no way this system is still a major and unless that shear relaxes it will continue to weaken because it does not look healthy at all. 
 

EDIT: I missed the 8 am where it was brought down to cat 2. 95 kts still seems generous based on satellite id wager it is closer to 85 kts at this time given 1/2 of the eye is now exposed 

[TimB]

23 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Surfers dream comin up 

Yes, you can track your fellow long islander’s surfing adventures at usersesh.

 

https://discord.gg/umSDREbM

[jconsor]

Hurricane Erin, despite weakening significantly in the past 24 hours, may have one more round of strengthening in its arsenal.  

With a fetch of tropical storm force winds extending out hundreds of miles into the ocean piling up water over three days of high tide cycles, water levels from NC to SE Virginia could rival levels during Dorian and Irene.  The Delmarva Peninsula to southern NJ could see a top 5 water level on record as well.

https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/too-close-for-comfort

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon had max FL winds of only around 85 kts we will see what this pass shows but man this thing is on life support as a cat 2 at the moment 

[NorthHillsWx]

Also- pressure up to 960

[cptcatz]

Interestingly 06z Euro initializes at 957 mb and still brings it down to 924 mb as it heads north of the Carolina coast...

[NorthHillsWx]

Second pass actually was less impressive than first. FL winds never surpassed 85 kts and pressure was a few ticks higher. This is a cat 1 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Interestingly 06z Euro initializes at 957 mb and still brings it down to 924 mb as it heads north of the Carolina coast...

I am curious as well. Given the current state and broad expanding wind field I would be SHOCKED if this strengthened significantly. That being said pressure falls might occur without winds coming up terribly much given the broad circulation. I’d say at this point a borderline cat 3 would be the ceiling but I’d lean more towards a Isabel-like cat 2 

[eyewall]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I am curious as well. Given the current state and broad expanding wind field I would be SHOCKED if this strengthened significantly. That being said pressure falls might occur without winds coming up terribly much given the broad circulation. I’d say at this point a borderline cat 3 would be the ceiling but I’d lean more towards a Isabel-like cat 2 

It is fighting dry air on the north side too. I would think the intensity forecast will most certainly come down. 

[Wannabehippie]

Good image of Erin, plus the SAL behind it.

[WxWatcher007]

Erin has taken a real beating between the shear and drier air. Although the Euro tries to return Erin to some semblance of former glory, the HAFS bring down the pressure respectively, but the wind field expands without much in the way of significant intensification, to @NorthHillsWx's point. 

[MJO812]

NJ Governor having a press conference about preparations for Hurricane Erin

[Wannabehippie]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Interestingly 06z Euro initializes at 957 mb and still brings it down to 924 mb as it heads north of the Carolina coast...

Regarding restrengthening potential:

 I just noticed this on the 0Z UKMET: it initialized it at 943 as of 8PM EDT last evening, then weakened it all the way down to 963 as of 12Z/8AM EDT this morning, and then restrengthens her starting today all the way down to 928 mb Thursday at 8PM EDT:

HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 71.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2025 0 23.9N 71.5W  943 84
1200UTC 19.08.2025 12 25.2N 72.6W  963 75
0000UTC 20.08.2025 24 26.9N 73.1W 953 79
1200UTC 20.08.2025 36 28.9N 74.3W 942 89
0000UTC 21.08.2025 48 31.6N 74.3W 936 100
1200UTC 21.08.2025 60 34.0N 73.3W 935 96
0000UTC 22.08.2025 72 36.2N 70.8W  928 94

[MANDA]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NJ Governor having a press conference about preparations for Hurricane Erin

Mr. Ed never met a TV camera he didn't like.  Surprised he has not issued a State of Emergency yet.

[dseagull]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NJ Governor having a press conference about preparations for Hurricane Erin

Bucktooth is a retard-kook, always looking for drama and a place to flap his gums.  Worst governor in the country, and there's plenty of competitors in other blue states. 

 

He'll probably brine the roads.  Lmao

[olafminesaw]

44 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png

Seems reasonable. May get sheared apart, but more likely will be steady state for it's closest approach to the coast before moving over cooler SSTs. 

[eyewall]

11am shows a tick east in the track and windfield as it brushes by NC

[yoda]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 72.4W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the North Carolina Outer
Banks from Cape Lookout to Duck.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the North Carolina 
Outer Banks from Beaufort Inlet to Duck.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Duck to Cape Charles 
Light Virginia.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light, Virginia