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August 2025 Summer Thread


Torch Tiger
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Definitely a PRE event 

generally occur about 36 hours ahead of the main storm passage and as much as 600 miles poleward of the storm center. The presence of a front in the area along with a strong moisture flow from the storm can enhance rainfall in this region, leading to potentially heavy rains that can cause flooding or set up the region for flooding 

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27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Definitely a PRE event 

generally occur about 36 hours ahead of the main storm passage and as much as 600 miles poleward of the storm center. The presence of a front in the area along with a strong moisture flow from the storm can enhance rainfall in this region, leading to potentially heavy rains that can cause flooding or set up the region for flooding 

1920506381_Screenshot2025-08-20at12_04_13PM.thumb.png.1468109f3242e6e1fa695bc2c3a2c3a7.png

while not the greatest match I can see elements of this in the setup today 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

0.02” may be it. I’m ready for a synoptic drizzle fest. 
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It hasn't come down hard via those echoes training down Rt 2 down may way. Not anywhere close to enough to make those modeled/graphic numbers people chose to post

I'm up to .19" and looking up stream on rad, this is all over with by 3 or 4 oclock.  Maybe .5 total unless this steps up

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33 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

1920506381_Screenshot2025-08-20at12_04_13PM.thumb.png.1468109f3242e6e1fa695bc2c3a2c3a7.png

while not a perfect match I can see elements of this in the setup today 

It looks like a coincidence to me.  The exact machinery for PRE, compared to a flat open fast moving S/W in the field, are different. 

We have the latter.  

It is far less clear whether the mechanics of PRE are also embedded in that - if perhaps entangled and not easy to parse out. Can't rule it out.

I would suggest from what I'm observing that this rain is being generated by a spat of overrunning pulled into vicinity of a right entrance jet escaping through CNE.   This will cause this overrunning band without PRE.  But its happenstance with an Erin sitting down there. It may give that allusion.

Also, Erin is more than 600 miles away. It's closer to 1000 miles away at this time.  Not that precise distance has to be a debate ender... just saying that distance does also stress the notion that PRE is involved here.  

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t really see it as a PRE. There is a low with a stalled front and WAA with it. Also H5 s/w.  Maybe a couple of similarities, but I don’t see tropical moisture from Erin contributing much. 

Yeah, I lean away ... but admit to some similarities.   I tried to provide a little analysis but just sayn'    ... we probably can't positive eliminate it altogether. 

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